Posted on 08/17/2016 8:57:57 AM PDT by Signalman
Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University today told Lou Dobbs Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the November presidential election.
Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.
His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.
This 2016 forecast rests on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norproth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.
Obviously he should drop out immediately.
Personally, I can see 1980 (I WAS there, BTW) from here. I am expecting a Tsunami that will make all these little media b!tches and pollsters sh!t their britches.
87% OK. That’s a good number. But probably not enough to overcome the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR FRAUD MACHINE that the democrats have in place in all the right places. Remember that Obama got 100% of the vote in certain precincts in key states. I remember that Hillary got 98% of the vote in two black precincts in Buffalo when she ran for the senate in NY. So they have that going for them. (Bill Murray Caddyshack ref. there)
That 98 percent in Buffalo is probably right though.
1980 parallels. Are obvious
Did you happen to catch this?
It’s almost impossible for one party to retain the White House for longer than two consecutive terms. I’ve only seen it happen once in my lifetime, and that only happened because the outgoing president was so successful in improving the lives of ordinary Americans, and in raising the overall stature of the nation.
Barack Obama doesn’t have the same sort of record of success that Reagan had. His political coat tails are virtually non-existent. He’s actually proven to be radioactive on the campaign trail, as nearly every politician he’s endorsed, has gone down to defeat. Fully half the country despises him with a red hot passion, and will vote with a vengeance this Fall to rid the nation’s capitol of him and his destructive cronies.
Under these circumstances, it’s hard to see how the Democrats can successfully buck the natural pendulum swing, and keep the White House for a third term.
btt
There is a plethora of pissed off working honest Americans out there just itching to vote these weasels of decades past out from our lives.
If we are really lucky an honest, honorable man comes along to help us. It has been quite a while since Reagan for the refrain to reprise.
I want a President who truly wants every sector of America to prosper, not divide us and to protect us from the evil within and without from this country.
I am willing to gamble on Trump. I KNOW Hillary is just more of the same treason.
You really have to be within 10 million or so votes of each other before fraud can really be helpful.
What parallels? In 1980 Reagan took the lead in polls in the may-june time frame, and never relinquished that lead. Carter, the incumbent, fell pretty much throughout the entire year of 1980.
That’s all well and good, but winner of the popular vote doesn’t equal winner of Electoral College.
Just ask President Gore.
I would LOVE it.
What I've noticed in my travels over the last week, (driving through NYS, into NH and then on to Maine) is that there are precious few Hillary signs. Many more for Sanders.
Sanders appears to have much more support than Hillary.
I saw a number of Trump signs, too.
I won't post signs in my yard. My right to vote is a privilege and my right to a secret ballot is also one.
Plus, I am not interested in having my property vandalized by the loving *tolerant* dems.
Yea, there’s a lot of wishful thinking on FR that is eerily similar to 2012.
And there will be a plethora of white liberals and brown third worlders just itching to vote for a strong armed dictator like back in the old country.
In a perfect world, yes. But voter fraud will be rampant.
“In 1980 Reagan took the lead in polls in the may-june time frame, and never relinquished that lead. Carter, the incumbent, fell pretty much throughout the entire year of 1980.”
Horse manure. Carter was still leading Reagan in October.
ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980
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