Posted on 04/16/2016 11:16:37 AM PDT by grumpa
The GOP delegate race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is far closer and more competitive than most of the mainstream media is reporting. As a result, and in an effort to get a more accurate view of where this race stands, comes this effort to update the picture with the more accurate reflection of where the GOP stands in the delegate count. The current delegate count reported by Real Clear Politics will be the starting point, with the specific changes not reported there, reported here instead. The current numbers reported there are 755 delegates for Donald Trump, and 545 delegates for Ted Cruz.
The previous edition of this column addressed why the 50 delegates Trump win in South Carolina will be converted to uncommitted, allowing those delegates to possibly and maybe likely vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Additionally, the 10 delegates in Louisiana gained by Cruz were explained, five were uncommitted delegates won by Cruz and the other five were the delegates Marco Rubio won in that state from primary voters. These changes leave the count at Trump 705, Cruz 555.
Conventions held recently in Tennessee and Virginia have lead to Trump losing eight delegates to Ted Cruz, while Cruz has gained an additional 8 delegates won from North Dakota. Additionally, it is reported from Republicans in Arizona that the state’s 58 delegates will actually be evenly split between the candidates, causing 29 delegates to move from Trump to Cruz. These changes mean Ted Cruz has 608 delegates to Trump’s 660 delegates.
Marco Rubio, who is all but certainly likely to endorse Ted Cruz, has 166 remaining delegates, that are likely to vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Those delegates will give Ted Cruz a 774 to 660 delegate lead over Donald Trump right now. That’s right, a Ted Cruz lead over Donald Trump in delegates right now.
What will happen after this is a likely split of most of the states between Trump and Cruz with Kasich winning some delegates in a few of the states. Going with those projections, and using the delegate simulator at Real Clear Politics, and then factoring in the changes covered in this article, the delegate count finishes with Ted Cruz having a 1071 delegates to 1051 delegates lead over Donald Trump. But even at those numbers, some media outlets might still be reporting a delegate lead for Trump. If the 50 delegates from South Carolina vote for Cruz, which is likely, Ted Cruz would be at 1101 delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland.
There will be well over 100 other uncommitted delegates, and both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have every right to work on winning those delegates. They will likely split between the two candidates on the first ballot. It seems likely that both candidates will fall short of the 1237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Ted Cruz would stand a good chance of winning at least 1237 on the second ballot to win the nomination and run against Hillary Clinton in November.
Trumpsters just ignore the reality and wonder why he loses to Hillary by ten points in almost every poll. Isn't it obvious? Trump pulls 20% of Democrats to his camp but loses 30% of Republicans.
I'm surprised that the UnSkewed Polling experts have time for anything other than President Romney's re-election campaign.
Really really wish that I could unsee that.
Uncommitted delegates in the GOPe are just like Super Delegates in the Democrap party. And of course Ted will get all of them. Cruz GOPe darling.
The race for the nomination is far from over.
WHAT ABOUT THE DISENFRANCHISED VOTERS???
wish the head to head with Clinton numbers were better.
Smartest thing the GOP elite could do to save themselves is embrace Trump. Dems and non-affilitated voters are going to be mad as *ell about the unfairness of their system. Crossover votes might save the Republican Party. Denying Trump means the Party is OVER.
This article looks like a hundred pipe dreams lined up, prayed over, and reviewed through dark sunglasses while squinting...
They are not static, they WILL change.
What disenfranchised voters?
The prevailing wisdom now is for a candidate that can’t win in the first ballot. My, my. How encouraging. One would think ideology, getting the message across and appealing to Republican voters of all flavors would take precedence rather than delegate maneuvering. How’s that gonna work out in the general election if Ted succeeds?
Wow...thank you for your POST...that chart and graphic display of “what is” is what is....Trump is the man and for all the media hype and Lyin’ Ted trying to take him down.
I will be curious to what Ted and the Enemedia say after April 26 and the smoke clears from these six primaries and Trump has smoked him...
Freegards
LEX
I’ve almost wished this were not public because it’s been rather evident the trumpsters don’t understand the delegates process.
It really won’t be hard for Cruz to have more delegates than trump on the first ballot.
It will be downhill from there for trump.
But like their dad not smart enough to understand how to register to vote.
It’s a conspiracy I tell ya!
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