Posted on 03/10/2016 9:55:02 AM PST by rktman
Climate scientists Pat Michaels and Paul “Chip” Knappenberger have a very interesting Working Paper at Cato that evaluates a suite of popular computer models of the climate. As we will see, Michaels and Knappenberger demonstrate that the observed temperature trends are much lower than the average projections of the climate models. In fact, the actual temperature record is almost at the point of “rejecting” the climate models in the statistical sense. “The Pause”: Real or Cherry-Picking?
The main purpose of this post is to show a key chart from the Cato paper. But in order for the reader to understand its significance, let me first review the controversy over the alleged “pause” in global warming.
What happened is that 1998 was an unusually warm year, with a global temperature spiking high above the 1997 value before falling back again in 1999. Therefore, the skeptics of alarmist climate change warnings were able to point out for many years afterward that global temperatures had ceased rising.
(Excerpt) Read more at canadafreepress.com ...
According to democrats this sort of heresy should be punished by burning at the stake
Burning at the stake only if they use concentrated solar panels to do the burning.
What the hell was the point of this article? Everyone has it wrong? I’d be OK with that if it means we can stop talking about this phony, ginned up commie issue dressed up as an environmental cause.
I checked with Greenpeace; the carbon emissions of burning at the stake are excessive. Looks like you'll have to compost at the stake.
Computer models are so woefully inadequate in predicting weather patterns, simply because they have not taken into consideration the far greater number of variables that may exist and are as yet insufficiently studied, and the interactions of those variables that may deflect a whole other set of hypotheses and assumptions.
You could come up with a huge hairy-butted equation that nobody could solve, even with the quickest mathematical computer in the universe. Certainly not with the level of technology we now have at our disposal.
Comes from overthinking the problem.
The point is: It is statistically improper to use 1998 as a starting point for determining whether or not warming is happening. This is because 1998 was abnormally high and using it to determine whether a trend exists biases the result in favor of finding "no trend".
The further point of the article is that, regardless of what starting point is used, the calculated trends going back as long as 65 years result in finding that the climate models are almost certainly WRONG and predict warming that didn't happen.
If, for example, these computer climate models were used to predict the outcome of horse races, one would be tremendously better off betting against the models.
There was an earlier post today on the Attorney General looking into ways to prosecute “climate deniers”.
Models used for predicting weather are reasonably accurate and have improved greatly in the past decade, mostly because they have to be accurate. If you tell me it’s going to snow tomorrow, I’m going to plan my day accordingly. I’ll not forget you were wrong when it’s a sunny day, and I’m going to start watching a different weather guy on a different channel.
Climate models don’t have the same incentive for accuracy, and thus can be made to say what you want them too without the same immediate public feedback.
The El Nino temperature spike occurred because solar energy was leaving the ocean. The Oceans and the globe were giving up heat. That is proven by the drop in atmospheric temperatures that followed. Solar energy into Oceans equals global warming. Solar energy leaving Oceans equals gloval cooling. El Nino is when the globe cools. Silly apes. Physics is not for kids.
BTTT
Well that just sucks. What am I going to do with all these Carbon Credits I’ve been seeding my retirement account with?
Dammit. And that stupid asteroid missed us, you just can’t count on Nature for anything.
Burn the paper that the carbon credits are printed on to stay warm. At least wait until after you burn through all the debt notes from the Federal Reserve. Watch the temperature drop the next two years. It will be historic and something the likes this planet had not seen in a long number of ape years.
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