The guessing game behind the monthly jobs report

New York Post ^ | 4 March, 2016 | John Crudele

[MtnClimber]

The monthly employment report is always funny - but not in a ha, ha, ha sort of way. It's peculiar/funny. It's stupid/funny. It's "aren’t the 'experts' embarrassed yet about how wrong they usually are"/funny.

The Labor Department announced Friday that a healthy 242,000 new jobs were created in February, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.9 percent.

The consensus among the experts had been for a gain of 180,000 to 190,000 new jobs, which means they were more than 30 percent off the mark.

I mentioned in my Thursday column that there was a good chance this report would be better than expected. And I explained why: There would be favorable seasonal adjustments at work.

So I was right and the "experts" were wrong.

But it's the reason behind their wrongness and my rightness that is important.

The "experts" are trying to figure out what the economy is doing. I’m trying to figure out what Labor’s economists are doing.

And I’ve been winning at this little parlor game for a long time.

[MtnClimber]

Now it has just become leftist propaganda.

[TomGuy]

The jobs/economy pictures will continue to ‘look’ rosy until Obama is out of office.

Then, if/when the real numbers hit, Team Obama will point to the next administration as ruining his great economy.

[Yogafist]

This is a ready-made crisis for the media and Democrats. If a Republican is elected president this year, they will start reporting the real unemployment rate within ten minutes of swearing in. And of course the Democrats will have no responsibility at all. This is why we need a candidate that can take the heat without withering.

[Ouderkirk]

The money questions are:

How many jobs were lost during that same period?

What is the NET job gain/loss?

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

Just like with 0’care, that NEVER matters.

[Prov1322]

This is a ready-made crisis for the media and Democrats. If a Republican is elected president this year, they will start reporting the real unemployment rate within ten minutes of swearing in

No doubt about that. Suddenly the U6 numbers will become relevant and reported. Media mendacity will ramp up to levels previously unseen...just like the unemployment rate. Oh, they will also become suddenly "concerned" about the labor force participation rate and the close to 100MM out of the work force.

[Paine in the Neck]

Now it has just become leftist propaganda.

Indeed.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Seasonally Adjusted Employment-Population Ratio

Labor force 16 years and over

Data extracted on: March 4, 2016 (8:41:11 AM)



The "Unemployment Rate" reported in 01/08 was 5%. And the current rate report of 01/16 has it at 4.9%. So what about all those people who are now out of work?

[mulligan]

Creative (lying) government stats. Unemployment is closer to 25%.

[Yogafist]

The only thing more predictable than this is the Republican reaction. Intelligence guided by experience tells us the Republicans won’t prepare for this attack until 10 minutes after it happens, and within 20 minutes will be echoing the liberal talking points and offering big government solutions.

[Rockpile]

The IRS and Social Security know how many people are paying employment income and retirement taxes but the scribblers and babblers are too effing stupid to ask them.