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Can slow creep along thrust faults help forecast megaquakes?
Science Daily ^ | 2/4/2016 | University of California

Posted on 02/06/2016 10:36:54 AM PST by JimSEA

In Japan and areas like the Pacific Northwest where megathrust earthquakes are common, scientists may be able to better forecast large quakes based on periodic increases and decreases in the rate of slow, quiet slipping along the fault.

This hope comes from a new study by Japanese and UC Berkeley seismologists, looking at the more than 1,000-kilimeter-long fault off northeast Japan where the devastating 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake originated, generating a tsunami that killed thousands. There, the Pacific Plate is trundling under the Japan plate, not only causing megaquakes like the magnitude 9 in 2011, but giving rise to a chain of Japanese volcanoes.

The scientists studied 28 years of earthquake measurements, looking at quakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater between 1984 and 2011. They discovered 1,515 locations off the coast of Japan where small repeating earthquakes happen -- 6,126 quakes in all.

(Excerpt) Read more at sciencedaily.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Science
KEYWORDS: earthquake; geology

According to co-author Robert Nadeau, a UC Berkeley seismologist and a fellow with the Berkeley Institute for Data Science (BIDS), an analysis of these quakes found that larger, more destructive earthquakes -- those of magnitude 5 or greater -- occurred much more frequently when the periodic slow-slip was fastest. This included the great Tohoku-oki earthquake, which also devastated a nuclear power plant and led to widespread radioactive contamination.

1 posted on 02/06/2016 10:36:54 AM PST by JimSEA
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To: JimSEA

But I thought fracking would predict earthquakes. Those places that allow fracking - more earthquakes.


2 posted on 02/06/2016 10:38:22 AM PST by sagar (3 way race; cranky populist - Trump/Sanders, establishment - Roobio/Hillary, conservative - Cruz!)
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To: JimSEA

This is very interesting. Thank you for posting.


3 posted on 02/06/2016 10:47:14 AM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: JimSEA

slow-slip was fastest


4 posted on 02/06/2016 11:03:46 AM PST by Cold Heart
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To: JimSEA; SunkenCiv; cogitator; SoothingDave; NicknamedBob; thackney

Odd.

Thought that locked points (keys) along long faults were thought predictors of the overall fault movement for many years.


5 posted on 02/06/2016 11:33:25 AM PST by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but socialists' ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: JimSEA

Ping


6 posted on 02/06/2016 12:02:46 PM PST by JmyBryan
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To: JimSEA

I just watched San Andreas. Great special effects.

Watch out, LA and Frisco. The time is near!


7 posted on 02/06/2016 2:18:53 PM PST by miserare ( "What difference does it make?"~~Benghazi Hil)
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To: miserare
Not as exciting as the movie but still watchable is this documentary . In fact the entire series is well done.
8 posted on 02/06/2016 3:22:29 PM PST by JimSEA
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To: JimSEA

Saw it on TV & watched it here again. Thanks
It was a 37 minute video which took an hour on TV. 23 minutes of ads. The pause/fast fwd function is about the only way I can watch TV anymore.


9 posted on 02/06/2016 5:59:09 PM PST by Cold Heart
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To: Cold Heart

You Tube is pretty light on ads also. The ads break my concentration.


10 posted on 02/06/2016 7:42:31 PM PST by JimSEA
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