Posted on 01/07/2016 9:00:49 PM PST by Swordmaker
The product mix of iPhone models in Apple's real world installed base of users shows smooth adoption of iPhone 6s models and no evidence of a decline in demand that would require unexpected production cuts. This publicly available data severely undercuts the supply chain rumors supporting a narrative of "Peak iPhone" and reactionary order slashing.
Data reported by Boston-based mobile marketing firm Fiksu, which tracks usage analytics among the most popular 50 mobile apps including Facebook and Twitter (as noted by reader Jim Neil via Twitter), shows that iPhone 6s and 6s Plus have ramped up to account for more than 13 percent of the iPhone installed base within the first 100 days since their release.
That's less than the percentage attained by last year's iPhone 6 models at the same point (which had reached about 21 percent), but that's expected because the total installed base of iPhones this year is much greater. Over fiscal 2015, Apple sold over 231 million new iPhones, massively expanding the pool of iPhone users.
This year Apple's newest 6s models are selling next to last year's 6 models with a similar appearance at a $100 discount. However, the bulk of iPhones sold since the launch of iPhone 6s appear to be Apple's latest and newest model, as the growing adoption ratio of 6 and 6 Plus abruptly flattened out at the launch of iPhone 6s last fall. While the older 6/6 Plus models continued to sell, the increasing size of the installed base kept those earlier models' "percentage of all users" static.
Since the 6s launch, the percentage of all iPhone users with a 6/6 Plus has actually gone down slightly, indicating that the increase in new 6s buyers is enough to obscure the smaller growth in new sales of last year's phone, even as the newest 6s/6s Plus models expanded their relative share by 13 percentage points.
There is zero indication that iPhone 6s models have tapered off or suddenly plunged; the data shows a smooth increase in sales since its launch.
As a percentage of the installed base, the iPhone 6s adoption ramp should be expected to be less than iPhone 6, due to the much larger size of today's installed base. However, the combined adoption of the new 6s and 6s Plus are consistently higher than the level seen in iPhone 5s two years (and 400 million iPhone sales) ago.
That indicates that as a premium priced model and a less obviously new "s" model version, the 6s family has incited more sales and switching than the earlier 5s model, which similarly competed against a $100 cheaper, previous generation of itself.
With the years of data Apple has on upgrade rates and switcher behaviors, this fails to support the idea that Apple was forced to dramatically shift its orders in response to slack demand for its new phone and instead indicates that Apple's 6s launch has been nothing but typical, and inline with Apple's previous performance.
On the other hand, iPhone 6 and 6s models combined have now reached about 55 percent of the iPhone installed base, essentially identical to the the proportion of users who had upgraded to either an iPhone 6 or 5s/5c model at this same point a year ago. That means that upgrade cycles have remained about the same despite the huge influx of new iPhone users, a metric that highlights the consistent cash machine tied to Apple's annual refresh cycle.
While the Galaxy 3 accounted for almost 19 percent of Android's installed base at the beginning of 2014 (a year and a half after it launched) in Fiksu's data, Samsung's Galaxy S4 successor only managed to grab just over 12 percent over the next year, and its Galaxy S5 hasn't yet reached 9 percent representation.
This indicates that Samsung's sales are much less cyclical than iPhones. Android users also appear be sticking with older models for much longer (or are more likely to buy older models), as usage data shows the adoption rate of the now three and a half year old Galaxy S3 remains currently tied with the S4 and S5.
Apple's ability to entice users to upgrade—and to choose its newest, most expensive models they do—is a primary reason why it now accounts for 94 percent of mobile industry profits.
I’ll be eligible for an update from my Galaxy 4s in a week, but I want a phone with a user replaceable battery and a micro-SD slot. Do such phones exist anymore? If not, I guess I’ll stick with what I have.
I think you can still get a Galaxy Note 4 that the battery is replaceable on. Other than that I don’t know but not on the Note 5.
Pinging ThunderSleeps for his Ping list for the adoption of Android phone model chart.
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Lg Vizio is what I had to buy to get those features. I must say that a couple design choices I find annoying, like the power and volume buttons being on the back, and the onscreen back and home buttons which sometimes need to be coaxed out of hiding. It makes up for these shortcomings by still allowing the replaceable battery, SD card slot, and the secondary mini screen, which I actually find very handy.
I think some of the other brand Androids still have those features. No iPhones have that. Top of the line Samsungs seem to have discontinued the swappable batteries and SD slots. The SD slots are security problems because a data thief merely has to open the phone take out the SD card, copy the data, and stick it back in. voila, data stolen. They are also means of sneaking data or malware into an secure environment for transfer onto a computer. As such they are not allowed in many secure locations.
As for swappable batteries, unless the entire lower back of the phone IS the battery, swappable batteries require the phone to be thicker and heavier due to engineering requirements for the replaceable battery to have a protective case, and the phone to have a door and contacts, and a wall between the battery compartment and critical internal components. It means the battery has to be smaller with less capacity than it could have been to accommodate all those extra walls, doors, contacts, etc. So, to give you what you want: a removable battery, every phone with one, has to have a lower capacity battery and therefore less talk and standby time.
There are reasons why more modern phones are dropping these features.
There no more service contracts, now you contract only the phone at full price. Will make less people buy phones that often.
LG G4 has a removable battery. So does their V10. Both great phones.
No, CA Guy, it means people can upgrade more often. They don't have to wait until a two year contract expires to upgrade. In fact, that is exactly what is happening with the NEXT program at AT&T. Subscribers are upgrading every year, trading in their phones by rolling over their one year old model for the newest model when it comes out by trading in the older one. . . just like buying a car with a balance still left on it, but which has enough equity to pay for itself. Sorry, but you are just wrong.
I bought my iPhone 6 on the NEXT program and when the iPhone 6s came out, I walked into the AT&T store, turned in my iPhone 6 and walked out with an iPhone 6s at zero cost out of my pocket and my payments per month on my purchase contract did not change. . . they were just extended equal to the number I had already paid on my iPhone 6. Next year, when the iPhone 7 comes out, I can walk in and trade in my iPhone 6s and walk out with an iPhone 7. Same deal.
With that plan, Apple sells a new phone every twelve months instead of selling a new phone every 24 months. If every Apple iPhone user does it, they just doubled their sales! In addition, they get used iPhones to recondition and sell at discounted prices over-seas in emerging markets. Win-win. . . and higher profits.
The LG V10 has a replaceable battery and a micro SD slot.
I have AT&T and they quoted me $500 dollars higher than my last Phone the 6. 8th was the last deal date for contracts. Basically one way or another they want $850..
All these phone company stocks are going down as people upgrade half or less as much as before IMO.
Were you on the NEXT program or on contract? If you were on NEXT, they would not have quoted you a price like that. I was on the NEXT Program, took my iPhone 6 in, gave it back to them, and walked out with my new iPhone 6s. My payments did not change. Done.
So, if you had been on the NEXT program you could have upgrade at a reasonable price instead of having to pay an early termination fee, which you agreed to do when you signed the two year contract when you paid your downpayment for paying full RETAIL for your iPhone 6. . . which is what you did. You did not "buy" your iPhone 6 for $199 or $299. That was merely the downpayment on the phone. The contract specified if you terminated the contract early, you had to pay it off.
You could have paid the difference, kept the iPhone 6, had them unlock it as it would now be yours free and clear, and sold it on eBay where 16GB models are going for anywhere from $400 to $550 depending on condition.
Does that mean you never actually OWN your iPhone? Just lease it?
I give my old iPhone to my girlfriend, if I lease it under the new plan, that MEAns I can never give it to someone, right?
Ed
If you don't trade it in, and finish the payments, you'll own it. Or you can pay off the balance and own it and start a new plan. You're essentially exchanging your old phone for the new with the old one's equity covering the new one's down payment.
Before the 8th I was offered at most $499 up front with a raise in service cosy of $15 a month for 24 months. Basically $850 for the iPhone 6+ 128.
Do I have something wrong or do I get a better deal elsewhere?
Your next diagram has me paying $960. Probably $1100 with taxes.
Ugh - not Vizio - that’s a TV, heh. The V10 is what I meant.
ROTFLMAO! If you believe that, I have this great bridge for sale in Brooklyn. You can have it for a bargain price. I'll sell it to you and you can start charging tolls for all the cars that cross and pay for it in a month from the tolls you charge.
No, CA Guy, that was NOT your total price. That was the down payment on the two year contract price which brought it down to the regular amortized cost of $650 of the basic iPhone already built into their standard contract. The rest of your payments were hidden in your 24 monthly payments of your contract obligation. What do think there's a free lunch and that AT&T gratuitously sold you a thousand dollar iPhone for $400 just to keep your business? Having done business with them (and frankly I hate them and have kicked them out of my office with prejudice and would switch from them as carriers were it not for too many family phones--don't get me started on the below sewer level customer service I've received from AT&T) I can assure you they are not in the business of doing good deeds. . . and will screw it to their customers any chance an opportunity arises.
They did NOT give you $600, they charged you $600 and you paid it. You just did not notice the anesthesia.
Hmm.., they left out the Z2, Z3, Z4, and Z5... but I’m not really into this fanboi stuff anyway ;^)
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