To End The FReepathon
Posted on 12/08/2015 8:35:11 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network
WASHINGTON (CNN) -
Donald Trump's support continues to grow among those who say they are likely to participate in February's Iowa presidential caucuses and Ted Cruz is on the rise while Ben Carson loses ground in the state, a new CNN/ORC Poll finds.
Overall, Trump has 33% support among likely GOP caucusgoers, followed by Cruz at 20% with Carson at 16%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4%. The new poll shows Trump up 8 points, Cruz up 9, while Carson has faded by 7 points, compared with the last CNN/ORC poll, conducted in late October and early November.
http://www.wdbj7.com/news/politics/poll-trump-cruz-on-the-rise-in-iowa/36842212
(Excerpt) Read more at wdbj7.com ...
Trump has a DOUBLE DIGIT lead, in IA!!
That’s YUUUGE :)
Karl Rove just bought a 55 gallon drum of Maalox........
If one more San Bernardino-like incident happens in this country before the election, Trump’s poll numbers will skyrocket.
Cruz is picking up nearly all of Carson’s old supporters, Rubio is picking up Bush’s old supporters and Trump is holding steady in the high 20’s.
In the end, this will come down to Trump vs Cruz. I suspect Cruz may pull off a win in Iowa, but then Trump will sweep the rest of the states.
More Trump Effect
How does Trump at 33% translate to Trump ‘holding steady at 20%’? Just curious. Thanks.
Yeah, I’m scratching my head over that one also......
I said “high” 20’s and I was referring to the average of all polls of the race as shown at real clear politics.
link:
Yes I agree.
There was another poll also this morning, which showed Cruz pulling ahead.
The two polls were slightly different in the questions asked, so they got different results.
I just figured this one was an important contrary data point.
Thanks.
**************
Monmouth has been all over the landscape with their polls in Iowa.
Key part:
Definitely..... 26%
Leaning........ 26%
Undecided... 48%
There choices are not good from here on out. They can destroy the party from within to keep their power creating a 3rd party and lose power or they can lose power and let a new guard take over.
There will always be a few outlier polls, some times they will be in a canidates favor and other times they wont.
That’s why it’s important to look at a graph of the average of all polls which will tend to over time smooth out the effects of outlier polls in either direction.
Trump had a couple of polls in late October which in my opinion were outliers. Those polls make it look like he had a dip in support in late October but then came back. I think in hindsight it’s clear that he never had a dip in his support and that Trumps support has held steady between 25-30% both nationally and in most states since August.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/report-from-iowa-why-cruz-will-crush-the-caucuses/article/2577797
Donald Trump: Trump probably won’t win Iowa.
The brash billionaire is dropping in the polls. But he’s still near the top, and his events continue to draw huge crowds. Neither phenomena prove he can win the caucuses.
Telling a pollster you support Trump is often more of an expression of defiance than an indication of voter intent. And as pollsters’ likely-voter screens are honed over the coming weeks, expect Trump to fall further in Iowa polls.
Already, Trump’s lead had shrunk to within the margin of error in the latest Quinnipiac poll, before he fell behind in the Monmouth poll.
Trump, in the Quinnipiac survey, was second to Jeb Bush on the question of candidates whom Republican caucus goers say they will not support. Many Iowa Republicans say they are glad Trump is running, because he says things that need saying, but they can’t take him seriously — and they are certain he would lose to Hillary.
Trump supporters are very likely not to show up on caucus day. One recent poll showed Trump’s support came disproportionately from Republicans who have never attended a caucus before. That’s exactly the profile of voter who will not show up this year on caucus day. Remember: The caucus takes up your entire evening. It is a much more involved process than simply voting in a primary.
There’s no evidence that Trump has an experienced Iowa caucus day operation, and he hasn’t tapped into any established networks in the state.
Trump’s strong CNN poll on Friday should not be considered reliable — it was a national poll (those are nearly useless this close to Iowa and New Hampshire), of only about 400 registered voters, and the poll didn’t screen for likely voters. Worse, pollsters seemed to prime respondents by asking five questions about illegal immigration immediately before asking for candidate preference.
Expect Trump’s lead in Iowa polls to be gone by January at the latest.
The remaining question would be whether he can finish second or third and eat up a big chunk of the vote, knocking a Bush, Rubio, or Christie down to embarrassingly low finish.
Here’s everything you need to know about Monmouth. It’s produced by a rabidly anti-Trump liberal named Patrick Murphy, with a pattern of producing Trump-is-fading outliers.
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