What are the predictions for the Senate races?

10/31/2014 | Nikos1121

[Lazamataz]

I think not only do we lose every single race, but we actually lose seats that are not even up for election. In fact, there will not be one elected Republican or Conservative in the entire universe.

[SPRINK]

I’ll be shocked if Roberts loses..yea I know the polls say otherwise

[cripplecreek]

Even the sure fire democrat win here in Michigan is far from guaranteed. The media is in lockdown mode clinging to September polling but some of the liberal leaning papers are telling democrats not to panic about an overwhelming lead for republicans with early ballots.

[InterceptPoint]

Here is my summary of the current predictions as of 29 October. EP is Election Projection. The I Column designates the current incumbent party.

Right now the average pickup predicted is 6.1 seats using a very simple un-weighted model. The model is:

D to R = +1
R to D = -1
Toss-up with D incumbent = +.5
Toss-up with R incumbent = -.5

And then just average the result.

The ranking is, in the averaged opinion, from most likely Republican loss to most likely Republican gain. I don't personally agree but that is what the "experts" are telling us right now.

Worth noting: Charlie Cook is just using the RCP average. Lazy.

There could be errors here. Don't hesitate to offer corrections.

[grania]

It’s tough to judge because early voting dampens momentum.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Yes we will all be euphoric for a few days til we realize the GOP finally has the votes to pass amnesty. LOL! I’m laughing so I don’t cry.

[ScottinVA]

Here’s how I see the outcome for the most closely-watched Senate races:

Alaska: Mark Begich (D) (This one will be agonizingly close, but the uncounted natives will keep it in Begich’s hands)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (Flip to R — R+1)
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) (Flip to R — R+2)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) in runoff (Flip to D — R+1)
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) in a nailbiter (Flip to R — R+2)
Kansas: Greg Orman (I) in another nailbiter (Flip to I — R+1)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) in runoff (She wins via a Harry Reid-directed influx of pork to LA in the “lame duck session”)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) (R+1)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (Flip to R — R+2)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) (Flip to R — R+3)
West Virginia: Shelley Capito (R) (Flip to R — R+4)

Final: 51D-49R, including three I’s who vote caucus with the dems.

[only1percent]

Dems hold 53-46 on election night, and end up 54-46 winning Georgia run-off (net loss of one seat) and, in so doing, rewrite the pollsters likely voter models with record off-year turnout of all their core demographics (African Americans, single women, the young). In addition to Georgia, the threatened R incumbents mostly fall, and Ds hold Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, Arkansas and North Carolina. Exit polls show that unchurched (atheists, agnostics, rarely or nevers) turnout surpasses that of self-described white Evangelicals. Extrapolating to 2016 it becomes clear that we are likely to see President Clinton or Warren with a 60- or 61-seat filibuster proof Senate majority in January 2017.

Republicans are toast until they start to win super-majorities of educated, upper-middle-class white voters and get to 40% or better among the Hispanic and Asian middle class.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Early voting has been light in Tennessee compared to 2010. I think that is because there are no hotly contested seats in the state and the proposed amendments aren’t generating much excitement.

[ScottinVA]

*Michigan: Gary Peters (D) (R+1)

[Viennacon]

Here is my prediction, and its likely to be final one of the races that might be viewed as competitive.

Rep Gains:

West Virgina R +1 (No contest)
Montana R +1 (Walsh destroyed any hope they had)
South Dakota R +1 (Despite Rounds being terrible, rats just can’t win this state anymore)
Arkansas R +1 (Cotton has sewn it up in the last few days)
Alaska R +1 (Begich imploded himself with that ad)
Louisiana R +1 (Runoff with Cassidy winning handily)
Iowa R +1 (Ernst has run the best campaign of the entire cycle. Bye Bye Bruce)

Dem Gains:

Georgia D +1 (Sorry, I can just see this happening. Perdue may have made up some deficit, but the race baiting worked in Mississippi, will probably work in Georgia too)
Kansas D +1 (It will be very close, but I’m giving the edge to Orman. Republican organization was awful. They were more concerned with trashing Milton Wolf than keeping the seat red)

Dem Holds:

North Carolina D (Tillis is the Rick Berg of this cycle)
New Mexico D (Allen Weh has cut the distance greatly, but he’ll lose by about 5 points)
Michigan D (Land messed up a great early lead)
Colorado D (Voter fraud. check the mail ballots they have now. This will be the most OUTRAGEOUS result more fitting to Venezuela than America)
Minnesota D (Easy win for Franken. No happy meal votes required)

Republican Holds:

Kentucky R (Dems really had a stinker this cycle. Grimes. ugh)

So after all that, you have 7 seats switching to R, the dems clawing back 2, and so the Dems retain a Biden majority...

BUT WAIT!

New Hampshire, I am calling a TOTAL WILDCARD. Jeanne Shaheen performed horribly in the debates, Brown has run a slick campaign. This will really go down to the wire.

Nobody thought it would turn out like this, but I think Republican hopes rest in the Granite State.

[ought-six]

Most likely is the GOP will end up with 52 Senate seats. Unfortunately, of those 52 there are 4 to 5 GOP senators who will more often than not vote with the Dims. Thus, the Dims will have a de facto majority.

[Vaduz]

A non voter may want to remember it’s a matter of public record if you don’t vote and guess who gets the blame if the rats win.

[LiveFree99]

In New Hampshire the Bob Smith worshippers will write him in and Shaheen will probably win by 500 votes.

[neocon1984]

Don’t get cocky. I was convinced by reports on FR that Romney was devastating O’Bummer on election day turnout.

That was a really depressing evening, largely due to false expectations.

Before anyone flames me, I would vote for any RINO over the Marxist. His damage to our country is incalculable - makes Jimmy Carter look good.

[nikos1121]

I see Purdue winning in a runoff.
I see Roberts pulling it out. His people will get the voters out.
I see Scott getting the military vote in the end.

R- 55

D- 45

[onedoug]

More of the same crap, regardless who wins.

[BenLurkin]

Prediction: Democrat vote fraud will retain the Senate.

[wrhssaxensemble]

Not disagreeing. Just being technically correct.

[Oatka]

I want to see Democrats ululating like grieving Muslim women.
Those peopleDemocrats ululate? I thought we had paid for their birth control.

Hell, those people think a Volvo is a female body part.