‘The Arctic sea ice spiral of death seems to have reversed’

wattsupwiththat.com ^ | August 30, 2014 | Anthony Watts

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The headline is a quote by Dr. Judith Curry from a David Rose article in the Sunday Mail: Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometres MORE than 2 years ago…despite Al Gore’s prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now.

The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. ‘The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,’ he said. ‘It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.’

Those comments came in 2007 as Mr Gore accepted the Nobel Peace Prize for his campaigning on climate change.

But seven years after his warning, The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, far from vanishing, the Arctic ice cap has expanded for the second year in succession – with a surge, depending on how you measure it, of between 43 and 63 per cent since 2012.

To put it another way, an area the size of Alaska, America’s biggest state, was open water two years ago, but is again now covered by ice.

The most widely used measurements of Arctic ice extent are the daily satellite readings issued by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, which is co-funded by Nasa. These reveal that – while the long-term trend still shows a decline – last Monday, August 25, the area of the Arctic Ocean with at least 15 per cent ice cover was 5.62 million square kilometres.

This was the highest level recorded on that date since 2006 (see graph, right), and represents an increase of 1.71 million square kilometres over the past two years – an impressive 43 per cent.

Other figures from the Danish Meteorological Institute suggest that the growth has been even more dramatic. Using a different measure, the area with at least 30 per cent ice cover, these reveal a 63 per cent rise – from 2.7 million to 4.4 million square kilometres.

The satellite images published here are taken from a further authoritative source, the University of Illinois’s Cryosphere project.

They show that as well as becoming more extensive, the ice has grown more concentrated, with the purple areas – denoting regions where the ice pack is most dense – increasing markedly.

Crucially, the ice is also thicker, and therefore more resilient to future melting. Professor Andrew Shepherd, of Leeds University, an expert in climate satellite monitoring, said yesterday: ‘It is clear from the measurements we have collected that the Arctic sea ice has experienced a significant recovery in thickness over the past year.

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Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738653/Stunning-satellite-images-summer-ice-cap-thicker-covers-1-7million-square-kilometres-MORE-2-years-ago-despite-Al-Gore-s-prediction-ICE-FREE-now.html

Indeed, and the way things are going, it looks like WUWT (and Wang) will be closer to the final September Average for Sea Ice than any of the other forecast players in the ARCUS Sea Ice prediction Network:

Click to magnify the image
Figure 1: Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (August Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent. Labels on the bar graph are rounded to the tenths for readability. Refer to the Individual Outlooks at the bottom of this report for the full details of individual submissions.

NSIDC shows sea ice within the +/- 2 standard deviations range, far above the year 2012:

The WUWT Sea Ice Page has complete details and all sorts of plots and images.

[Graewoulf]

Thanks for the link!

[gusopol3]

Can’t be true, there’s more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere every year. And Obama has decreed that’s all that matters.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

“I guess we were blitheringly stupid wrong”.

When I hear THAT, I will be happy.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

They will say nothing,....just will move on the next scam.

[reefdiver]

They have a long time to go with this one

[Busko]

Ass Gore, this idiot should be in prison.

[tumblindice]

‘Arctic sea ice spiral of death.’
Ice sharks.
If a pack of polar bears were fighting a school of ice sharks, who would win?

[Huskrrrr]

[JennysCool]

But seven years after (Al Gore's) warning, The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, far from vanishing, the Arctic ice cap has expanded for the second year in succession – with a surge, depending on how you measure it, of between 43 and 63 per cent since 2012.

A sane society would have charged Gore with a multi-billion dollar fraud a long time ago.

[The Cajun]

Just that dang weather playing tricks again :)

[ThunderSleeps]

You mean the models and dire, far end of the bell curve worst case scenarios were wrong! ? Say it isn’t so! ;-\

[DemforBush]

I guess Obama kept his campaign promise after all - the seas are beginning to heal, LOL.

[agere_contra]

Remember when all the Artic ice disappeared in 2013?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

[SWAMPSNIPER]

[bmwcyle]

Global Whining

[PATRIOT1876]

Alternate title for article:

GORE IS WRONG EVERY SINGLE TIME HE UTTERS A WORD.

He’s a statistical oddity.
We could predict the future by preparing for the exact opposite of whatever Gore spews from his mouth. He seems incapable of speaking a true word.

Surely Science could find a legitimate use for him....

[Morpheus2009]

You know, back in the 1990s, they were saying that melting ice created feedback, then global warming could cause an ice age. Must have forgotten about thermohaline circulation.