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Vanity - Kentucky Derby 2013 Picks and Predictions
5/04/2013 | Self

Posted on 05/04/2013 9:04:56 AM PDT by Slump Tester

Lets's start a thread for posting our Derby picks. We need an FR bookie. We can play for told-ya-sos.

I'm a cheapskate who's broke all the time, so I'm only betting on the big race. I'm putting $2 across the boards on "Normandy Invasion" and also $2 across the boards on "Frac Daddy".

I know it's stupid to pick them because you like their names, but every once in a while it works. I picked a horse named "Frisk Me Now" once in some podunk race and it won even though it went off at like 50 or 60:1.

The last time we went to the derby was in 2006, I lost small bets all day Friday at the Oaks and the next day at the derby. I had 6 bucks on a horse in the big race to place that was at 15:1, and he placed and I got almost everything back I had lost. I went home about $15 in the red. Not bad for 2 days of fun.

What was really stupid though was that I had picked the 2rd place horse, and my other half had correctly bet the 1st and 3rd places. If we had combined our picks for a trifecta (just $6), it would have paid out over 11 grand!


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Hobbies; Pets/Animals; Sports
KEYWORDS: derby; horseracing; workingdogs
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1. Onyx: SCRATCHED
2. Oxbow 25/1: Gary Stevens
3. Revolutionary 5/1: Calvin Borel
4. Golden Soul 31/1: Robby Albarado
5. Normandy Invasion 8/1: Javier Castellano
6. Mylute 14/1: Rosie Napravnik
7. Giant Finish 44/1: Jose Espinoza
8. Goldencents 5/1: Kevin Krigger
9. Overanalyze 14/1: Rafael Benajaro
10. Palace Malice 26/1: Mike Smith
11. Lines of Battle 42/1: Ryan Moore
12. Itsmyluckyday 11/1: Elvis Trujillo
13. Falling Sky 49/1: Luis Saez
14. Verrazano 11/1: John Velazquez
15. Charming Kitten 32/1: Edgar Prado
16. Orb 6/1: Joel Rosario
17. Will Take Charge 31/1: Jon Court
18. Frac Daddy 15/1: Victor Lebron
19. Java's War 22/1: Julien Leparoux
20. Vyjack 43/1: Garrett Gomez
21. Fear The Kitten: SCRATCHED

I should have probably picked "Revolutionary" or "Vyjack" just because of their jockeys, but I'm going on names that jump out at me this year.

Ok Freepers - what are YOUR picks?

1 posted on 05/04/2013 9:04:56 AM PDT by Slump Tester
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To: Slump Tester

Revolutionary


2 posted on 05/04/2013 9:08:39 AM PDT by navysealdad (http://drdavehouseoffun.com/)
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To: Slump Tester; onyx

I woulda picked “Fear the Kitten”. I see Onyx is also scratched. WTH? No Freeper horses? LOL


3 posted on 05/04/2013 9:13:10 AM PDT by dynachrome (Vertrou in God en die Mauser)
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To: Slump Tester

And here comes the winnerrrrrrrrrrrrr........Feetlebaum!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BavRrRNvz8g


4 posted on 05/04/2013 9:15:08 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Slump Tester

The best muddier, having looked at the radar this AM. This will be a very muddy Derby. I’m sure glad I didn’t shell out big bucks for a ticket.


5 posted on 05/04/2013 9:17:17 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: Slump Tester
I stumbled upon this guy's Derby system/formula last week. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

He ranks the horses thus:

1. Orb
2. Revolutionary
3. Goldencents
4. Verrazano
5. Itsmyluckyday
6. Overanalyze
7. Java’s War
8. Lines of Battle
9. Black Onyx
10. Will Take Charge

Derby Strikes System

6 posted on 05/04/2013 9:34:02 AM PDT by FlJoePa ("Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good")
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To: Slump Tester

I bet a Normandy Invasion/Oxbow Exacta Box, and another bet on Orb to win/place/show.

Normandy Invasion at my father’s recommendation, and Oxbow because that’s the brand of chinchilla pellets our guy eats.

Orb because I like the look of the horse.

I’m new to this betting thing - let’s see how I do.


7 posted on 05/04/2013 9:37:58 AM PDT by mrs. a (It's a short life but a merry one...)
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To: dynachrome; Slump Tester; RedMDer

Well heck.

Black Onyx is scratched!

I like trainers Doug O’Neil and Chad Brown.

Their horses are: Goldencents and Normandy Invasion


8 posted on 05/04/2013 9:59:22 AM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: Slump Tester

Picked him as well after reading this. His nickname is D Day. Thought you might enjoy ...
http://www.armytimes.com/article/20130503/NEWS/305030026


9 posted on 05/04/2013 10:02:00 AM PDT by IwaCornDogs ("There Will Be Bamboozeling" ~ Nobama 08')
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To: dynachrome; Slump Tester; RedMDer

DrO says MyLute with the girl jockey...LOL.


10 posted on 05/04/2013 10:04:09 AM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: onyx

I like Normandy Invasion :)

VIKINGS!


11 posted on 05/04/2013 10:09:48 AM PDT by RedMDer (May we always be happy and may our enemies always know it. - Sarah Palin, 10-18-2010)
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Don't let FR fade away! Donate.

Free Republic Needs Our Reliable Support
Donating Monthly would be Ideal.
Generous FReeper Sponsors are donating $10
for every New Monthly Donor & $1-A-Day Donor!

12 posted on 05/04/2013 10:11:24 AM PDT by RedMDer (May we always be happy and may our enemies always know it. - Sarah Palin, 10-18-2010)
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To: Slump Tester

Frac Daddy - just because I love the name!


13 posted on 05/04/2013 10:11:38 AM PDT by newfreep (Breitbart sent me...)
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To: Slump Tester

Great Thread
I need to see if there is information on how any horse has run in the mud.
Horses either like it or they hate it


14 posted on 05/04/2013 10:14:05 AM PDT by RWGinger
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To: Slump Tester

Going out on a limb here, but I think a horse will win.


15 posted on 05/04/2013 10:18:54 AM PDT by EricT. (Another Muslim terrorist. Who saw that coming?)
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To: Slump Tester

I just sent out a massive 12 paragraph email to relatives and
*riends who requested it: I won’t burden this thread with that letter:
I think VERRAZANO will try to steal it on the lead, and i*
any jock could pull that o** it would be John Velazquez/
ALSO-—the once-a-contender, but now much-downgraded horse, VYJACK, going *rom the #20
post, will have no choice but to get out quickly and save ground, so I expect the early going might between him and VERRAZANO. HOWEVER, I think this race will belong to either
a closer (and there are many o* them) or the British Invader, LINES O* BATTLE, who looks like he could rate right
behind whoever’s on the lead, then strike in the last 1/8th mile.
Aside *rom the *avorites, who are all eminently beatable,
I like Normandy Invasion, Lines o Battle, Java’s War, and
Itsmyluckyday. The super*ecta will pay huge i* two o* those
get into the top 4.
BEST VALUE PLAYS 4 THE WIN: LINES O BATTLE, Java’s War.
Best exacta Normandy Invasion/Lines o* Battle/Java’s War.
This Derby is bound to have unprecedentedly huge payo**s,
pretty much across the board.That tends to happen with *ields this big, and NO CLEAR CHALK CHOICE.Too many secondary choices and endless combinations tend to get
the bettors’ mind all agitated, so they stick with the easy choices.


16 posted on 05/04/2013 10:20:12 AM PDT by supremedoctrine
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To: RWGinger

I was thinking about that, too.

I love horse racing and used to be seriously into it.

Wish I had time to study this race.

I love to pick the winner.


17 posted on 05/04/2013 10:20:35 AM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: Slump Tester

When did the Derby change to running on a Sunday? I thought it was always the first Saturday in May.


18 posted on 05/04/2013 10:20:43 AM PDT by miele man
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To: RWGinger

1st time in 12 years I’ve not been AT Churchill for the Derby... but, seeing the cold rain today? I’m not too upset about it.

I like Goldencents and Verrazano to win. They are on top of ALL my exotic bets.

The odds are good enough for WP bets on Itsmyluckyday, Overanalyze (great MUD horse), and Java’s War.


19 posted on 05/04/2013 10:21:14 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: RWGinger
Google is our friend: 2013 Kentucky Derby Horses That Run Best in Mud: The Mudders
20 posted on 05/04/2013 10:23:41 AM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: Slump Tester

Normandy Invasion for the win.


21 posted on 05/04/2013 10:25:17 AM PDT by Vindication
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To: Slump Tester

thank you for that link

after reading it and loving the name
I am cheering for Revolutionary with calvin borel on top.

Love this thread~!


22 posted on 05/04/2013 10:34:19 AM PDT by RWGinger
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To: Slump Tester

Verrazano, by a car length..


23 posted on 05/04/2013 10:36:52 AM PDT by ken5050 (Not every Muslim is a terrorist, but just about every terrorist is a Muslim..)
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To: Slump Tester

I don’t know which horse will win but it looks like another stampede.


24 posted on 05/04/2013 10:38:01 AM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: RWGinger

The horses with the best mud ratings are OXBOW, REVOLUTIONARY, AND NORMANDY INVASION.
Only a couple horses in this Derby have raced, and won or gotten a close 2nd
on sloppy tracks, but at MUCH shorter distances,like
5/8 mile and they are mostly also-rans, like *rac Daddy.
Vyjack won at 7/8 mile in the slop and earned a 96 Beyer number,which is quite good. I think the reason Vyjack is a longshot going into this Derby,is because o his #20 post,
but never underestimate the abilities o his phenomenal jockey Garrett Gomez. NOW, thanks to your question I have taken another look and will put VYJACK on top in some $1 super*ectas. WITH or WITHOUT rain, he is a contender even *rom post 20


25 posted on 05/04/2013 10:45:27 AM PDT by supremedoctrine
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To: Slump Tester

My picks are: 1. Orb 2. Goldencents 3. Revolutionary


26 posted on 05/04/2013 10:54:52 AM PDT by stylecouncilor (Bazinga!)
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To: Slump Tester

I pick by name- what ‘feel’s’ like the winner. I have gotten several Derby’s right. This year I pick Revolutionary and Orb. Kinda like Overanalyze too since its such a big field.


27 posted on 05/04/2013 11:01:44 AM PDT by ClearBlueSky (When anyone says its not about Islam...it's about Islam. That death cult must be eradicated.Do what)
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To: Slump Tester

12 - 16 - 10 Trifecta


28 posted on 05/04/2013 11:11:59 AM PDT by jungleboy
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To: Slump Tester

OK...going with Overanalyze...because I didn’t. Oh...to show. I think thats 3rd place. Correct me if I’m wrong.


29 posted on 05/04/2013 11:12:27 AM PDT by Conservative4Ever (I'm going Galt)
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To: IwaCornDogs

That’s a great human interest story, but since The Derby is on NBC, you can bet it won’t get mentioned.


30 posted on 05/04/2013 11:15:42 AM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: Slump Tester
Gotta go with Warner Wolf on this one. ;o)
"Normandy Invasion" for the win.

------>Happy Derby Day!

31 posted on 05/04/2013 11:17:46 AM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: Slump Tester

Frac Daddy


32 posted on 05/04/2013 11:20:09 AM PDT by gorush (History repeats itself because human nature is static)
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To: Slump Tester
Looks like rain...... Any mudders in the field?
33 posted on 05/04/2013 11:31:28 AM PDT by deport
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To: Liberty Valance
Normandy Invasion has never ran in the mud before. I'm thinking Mylute and Goldencents, but first hunches are usually best, so I'm sticking with Normandy Invasion.

Maybe he's a mudder and no one knows it yet.

34 posted on 05/04/2013 11:34:32 AM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: deport

See # 20.


35 posted on 05/04/2013 11:36:41 AM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: supremedoctrine

“I have taken another look and will put VYJACK on top in some $1 super*ectas.”
You sound pretty analytical.
I don’t actually bet but now I will be cherring for Vyjack too, maybe to win and Revolutionary to place.
I know it is stupud to not bet but I hate to lose money

thanks for mentioning how sucessful Vyjack is both on wet and dry tracks


36 posted on 05/04/2013 12:11:39 PM PDT by RWGinger
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To: Slump Tester

I like Overanalyze with Frac Daddy as a longshot or pairing.
Overanalyze dominated the Arkansas Derby with Frac Daddy being his only competition in that major prep race. Frac Daddy finished second in the Arkansas Derby.


37 posted on 05/04/2013 12:52:58 PM PDT by TLOne (All terrorists want is for us to bow and worship their god. Oh, and to let them rule.)
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To: RWGinger

Oh, you have no idea how analytical I am!
I just now got done making my bets on the TVG.com website
(horseracing channel) sitting at a Starbucks with wi*e and
daughter, enjoying a hal*-price *rappucino.
Mostly $1 supers with a 5-11 exacta box and also a couple bucks to win on #9 AND #11. I never bet big on any o* these big Triple Crown races—especially this one, which is a real crapshoot which nearly hal* the *ield could win. I make my money mostly on 10 cent supers-—woulda made a lot more super bets 4 this Derby, but 4got that 4 the Derby the minimum is a dollar. Last week I had 2 10 cent supers that paid a total o* $894 and a couple days b4 that had 3 that paid a total o* $1366. Sometimes it’s like “taking candy *rom a baby”, but sometimes you’re the baby, and the track takes it away *rom you. SORRY—the letter b4 “G” is not working. Gotta see i* I can use an old keyboard in this laptop, connecting with USB, because THIS IS IRRITATING!


38 posted on 05/04/2013 1:15:47 PM PDT by supremedoctrine
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To: Slump Tester

I have to say this field is probably the best field of names I’ve ever seen. I love them - most of them.

Like the name, like the horse, in sync with my FR name and 1 of my passions, I want Revolutionary.

Andy Beyer likes Goldencents, but while the figure may be good, I just don’t like that name.


39 posted on 05/04/2013 1:48:16 PM PDT by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Technological progress cannot be legislated.)
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To: Slump Tester

I always look to see if I’ve heard of a horse’s Daddy, Mommy or Grandparents. The only name I recognized this year was AP Indy in the lineage of Revolutionary. So Revolutionary it is.


40 posted on 05/04/2013 1:53:04 PM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: newfreep

I bet on him because of the name also, he’s owned by oil man of course. They say he has a little better chance since it’s a wet track.


41 posted on 05/04/2013 1:56:18 PM PDT by Rusty0604
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To: Slump Tester

Frisk Me Now was not just some Podunk horse!


42 posted on 05/04/2013 1:57:45 PM PDT by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Technological progress cannot be legislated.)
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To: the OlLine Rebel

TVG has been DOWN much of the past two hours....

Sucks.. bigtime. Had to sign up for Twin Spires.. on spur of moment. But, I have $700 of winnings tied up on TVG


43 posted on 05/04/2013 2:05:59 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: supremedoctrine

I’ve been analyzing all day, placing several bets. Any more wisdom to share?


44 posted on 05/04/2013 2:09:13 PM PDT by Rusty0604
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To: Slump Tester

If only that name was Charming Kitteh!


45 posted on 05/04/2013 2:16:34 PM PDT by Exit148
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To: Slump Tester

I don’t even know when they run this horse race, but if it is tomorrow the rain hitting Kentucky starting tonight may play a very significant part in the outcome.


46 posted on 05/04/2013 2:18:32 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: MHGinTN

it’s today


47 posted on 05/04/2013 2:23:47 PM PDT by Rusty0604
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To: Slump Tester
Sarah Palin Attends Kentucky Derby


48 posted on 05/04/2013 2:34:06 PM PDT by Bratch
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To: SomeCallMeTim

Twin Spires isn’t any better ...

High Volume

We are currently experiencing high volume, registration will be back online soon.

Please call customer service at 1-877-SPIRES1 for assistance with registration.


49 posted on 05/04/2013 3:04:23 PM PDT by OwenKellogg
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To: Rusty0604

I have win bets on 2, 9 and 11. A whole bunch o $1 supers
ONLY A COUPLE using any o the highly bet horses on top.
ALL the odds have been turned upside down suddenly, as you
know-—Verrazano is now 9-1, Orb is 7-1, and Revolutionary
who was 10-1 is now the tepid 5-1 choice. There are lots o reasons or this change, mostly centered on scuttlebutt about
who could excel on the wet track suddenly there at Churchill.
I have liked Normandy Invasion, Lines o Battle, Java’s War,
Itsmylucky day, and especially Java’s War all day long.
Julien Leparoux on that last named hoss has at least 3 wins today at CD that I know about. I haven’t watched the entire day at CD, but am watching now on NBC. TVG—the horseracing channel where I have an online betting account, cannot broadcast the Derby either online or on TV because o* the NBCSports contract.
Very little time remains, but I predict HUGE payouts across the board, with a likely longshot winner. The super will pay
upwards o* 5K *or $1-—there WILL a couple o* double digit horses in it.
Java’s War/Line o* Battle -—as I recall, I have that exacta. This race is a crapshoot —there are 8 or 9 horses
that could win and at the 1/4 pole there could be 7-8 horses across the track. Maybe all o* them ollowing whatever speed horse managed to capture the lead and try to steal the race on the ront end. That could be Goldencents, Verrazano, or itsmylucky day-—gotta go and see about making ONE LAST BET!


50 posted on 05/04/2013 3:11:48 PM PDT by supremedoctrine
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