Skip to comments.Vanity - Kentucky Derby 2013 Picks and Predictions
Posted on 05/04/2013 9:04:56 AM PDT by Slump Tester
Lets's start a thread for posting our Derby picks. We need an FR bookie. We can play for told-ya-sos.
I'm a cheapskate who's broke all the time, so I'm only betting on the big race. I'm putting $2 across the boards on "Normandy Invasion" and also $2 across the boards on "Frac Daddy".
I know it's stupid to pick them because you like their names, but every once in a while it works. I picked a horse named "Frisk Me Now" once in some podunk race and it won even though it went off at like 50 or 60:1.
The last time we went to the derby was in 2006, I lost small bets all day Friday at the Oaks and the next day at the derby. I had 6 bucks on a horse in the big race to place that was at 15:1, and he placed and I got almost everything back I had lost. I went home about $15 in the red. Not bad for 2 days of fun.
What was really stupid though was that I had picked the 2rd place horse, and my other half had correctly bet the 1st and 3rd places. If we had combined our picks for a trifecta (just $6), it would have paid out over 11 grand!
I should have probably picked "Revolutionary" or "Vyjack" just because of their jockeys, but I'm going on names that jump out at me this year.
Ok Freepers - what are YOUR picks?
I woulda picked “Fear the Kitten”. I see Onyx is also scratched. WTH? No Freeper horses? LOL
And here comes the winnerrrrrrrrrrrrr........Feetlebaum!
The best muddier, having looked at the radar this AM. This will be a very muddy Derby. I’m sure glad I didn’t shell out big bucks for a ticket.
He ranks the horses thus:
7. Javas War
8. Lines of Battle
9. Black Onyx
10. Will Take Charge
I bet a Normandy Invasion/Oxbow Exacta Box, and another bet on Orb to win/place/show.
Normandy Invasion at my father’s recommendation, and Oxbow because that’s the brand of chinchilla pellets our guy eats.
Orb because I like the look of the horse.
I’m new to this betting thing - let’s see how I do.
Black Onyx is scratched!
I like trainers Doug O’Neil and Chad Brown.
Their horses are: Goldencents and Normandy Invasion
Picked him as well after reading this. His nickname is D Day. Thought you might enjoy ...
DrO says MyLute with the girl jockey...LOL.
I like Normandy Invasion :)
Frac Daddy - just because I love the name!
I need to see if there is information on how any horse has run in the mud.
Horses either like it or they hate it
Going out on a limb here, but I think a horse will win.
I just sent out a massive 12 paragraph email to relatives and
*riends who requested it: I won’t burden this thread with that letter:
I think VERRAZANO will try to steal it on the lead, and i*
any jock could pull that o** it would be John Velazquez/
ALSO-—the once-a-contender, but now much-downgraded horse, VYJACK, going *rom the #20
post, will have no choice but to get out quickly and save ground, so I expect the early going might between him and VERRAZANO. HOWEVER, I think this race will belong to either
a closer (and there are many o* them) or the British Invader, LINES O* BATTLE, who looks like he could rate right
behind whoever’s on the lead, then strike in the last 1/8th mile.
Aside *rom the *avorites, who are all eminently beatable,
I like Normandy Invasion, Lines o Battle, Java’s War, and
Itsmyluckyday. The super*ecta will pay huge i* two o* those
get into the top 4.
BEST VALUE PLAYS 4 THE WIN: LINES O BATTLE, Java’s War.
Best exacta Normandy Invasion/Lines o* Battle/Java’s War.
This Derby is bound to have unprecedentedly huge payo**s,
pretty much across the board.That tends to happen with *ields this big, and NO CLEAR CHALK CHOICE.Too many secondary choices and endless combinations tend to get
the bettors’ mind all agitated, so they stick with the easy choices.
I was thinking about that, too.
I love horse racing and used to be seriously into it.
Wish I had time to study this race.
I love to pick the winner.
When did the Derby change to running on a Sunday? I thought it was always the first Saturday in May.
1st time in 12 years I’ve not been AT Churchill for the Derby... but, seeing the cold rain today? I’m not too upset about it.
I like Goldencents and Verrazano to win. They are on top of ALL my exotic bets.
The odds are good enough for WP bets on Itsmyluckyday, Overanalyze (great MUD horse), and Java’s War.
Normandy Invasion for the win.
thank you for that link
after reading it and loving the name
I am cheering for Revolutionary with calvin borel on top.
Love this thread~!
Verrazano, by a car length..
I don’t know which horse will win but it looks like another stampede.
The horses with the best mud ratings are OXBOW, REVOLUTIONARY, AND NORMANDY INVASION.
Only a couple horses in this Derby have raced, and won or gotten a close 2nd
on sloppy tracks, but at MUCH shorter distances,like
5/8 mile and they are mostly also-rans, like *rac Daddy.
Vyjack won at 7/8 mile in the slop and earned a 96 Beyer number,which is quite good. I think the reason Vyjack is a longshot going into this Derby,is because o his #20 post,
but never underestimate the abilities o his phenomenal jockey Garrett Gomez. NOW, thanks to your question I have taken another look and will put VYJACK on top in some $1 super*ectas. WITH or WITHOUT rain, he is a contender even *rom post 20
My picks are: 1. Orb 2. Goldencents 3. Revolutionary
I pick by name- what ‘feel’s’ like the winner. I have gotten several Derby’s right. This year I pick Revolutionary and Orb. Kinda like Overanalyze too since its such a big field.
12 - 16 - 10 Trifecta
OK...going with Overanalyze...because I didn’t. Oh...to show. I think thats 3rd place. Correct me if I’m wrong.
That’s a great human interest story, but since The Derby is on NBC, you can bet it won’t get mentioned.
------>Happy Derby Day!
Maybe he's a mudder and no one knows it yet.
See # 20.
“I have taken another look and will put VYJACK on top in some $1 super*ectas.”
You sound pretty analytical.
I don’t actually bet but now I will be cherring for Vyjack too, maybe to win and Revolutionary to place.
I know it is stupud to not bet but I hate to lose money
thanks for mentioning how sucessful Vyjack is both on wet and dry tracks
I like Overanalyze with Frac Daddy as a longshot or pairing.
Overanalyze dominated the Arkansas Derby with Frac Daddy being his only competition in that major prep race. Frac Daddy finished second in the Arkansas Derby.
Oh, you have no idea how analytical I am!
I just now got done making my bets on the TVG.com website
(horseracing channel) sitting at a Starbucks with wi*e and
daughter, enjoying a hal*-price *rappucino.
Mostly $1 supers with a 5-11 exacta box and also a couple bucks to win on #9 AND #11. I never bet big on any o* these big Triple Crown races—especially this one, which is a real crapshoot which nearly hal* the *ield could win. I make my money mostly on 10 cent supers-—woulda made a lot more super bets 4 this Derby, but 4got that 4 the Derby the minimum is a dollar. Last week I had 2 10 cent supers that paid a total o* $894 and a couple days b4 that had 3 that paid a total o* $1366. Sometimes it’s like “taking candy *rom a baby”, but sometimes you’re the baby, and the track takes it away *rom you. SORRY—the letter b4 “G” is not working. Gotta see i* I can use an old keyboard in this laptop, connecting with USB, because THIS IS IRRITATING!
I have to say this field is probably the best field of names I’ve ever seen. I love them - most of them.
Like the name, like the horse, in sync with my FR name and 1 of my passions, I want Revolutionary.
Andy Beyer likes Goldencents, but while the figure may be good, I just don’t like that name.
I always look to see if I’ve heard of a horse’s Daddy, Mommy or Grandparents. The only name I recognized this year was AP Indy in the lineage of Revolutionary. So Revolutionary it is.
I bet on him because of the name also, he’s owned by oil man of course. They say he has a little better chance since it’s a wet track.
Frisk Me Now was not just some Podunk horse!
TVG has been DOWN much of the past two hours....
Sucks.. bigtime. Had to sign up for Twin Spires.. on spur of moment. But, I have $700 of winnings tied up on TVG
I’ve been analyzing all day, placing several bets. Any more wisdom to share?
If only that name was Charming Kitteh!
I don’t even know when they run this horse race, but if it is tomorrow the rain hitting Kentucky starting tonight may play a very significant part in the outcome.
Twin Spires isn’t any better ...
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I have win bets on 2, 9 and 11. A whole bunch o $1 supers
ONLY A COUPLE using any o the highly bet horses on top.
ALL the odds have been turned upside down suddenly, as you
know-—Verrazano is now 9-1, Orb is 7-1, and Revolutionary
who was 10-1 is now the tepid 5-1 choice. There are lots o reasons or this change, mostly centered on scuttlebutt about
who could excel on the wet track suddenly there at Churchill.
I have liked Normandy Invasion, Lines o Battle, Java’s War,
Itsmylucky day, and especially Java’s War all day long.
Julien Leparoux on that last named hoss has at least 3 wins today at CD that I know about. I haven’t watched the entire day at CD, but am watching now on NBC. TVG—the horseracing channel where I have an online betting account, cannot broadcast the Derby either online or on TV because o* the NBCSports contract.
Very little time remains, but I predict HUGE payouts across the board, with a likely longshot winner. The super will pay
upwards o* 5K *or $1-—there WILL a couple o* double digit horses in it.
Java’s War/Line o* Battle -—as I recall, I have that exacta. This race is a crapshoot —there are 8 or 9 horses
that could win and at the 1/4 pole there could be 7-8 horses across the track. Maybe all o* them ollowing whatever speed horse managed to capture the lead and try to steal the race on the ront end. That could be Goldencents, Verrazano, or itsmylucky day-—gotta go and see about making ONE LAST BET!
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