Posted on 11/05/2012 5:36:11 PM PST by barryobi
Have no fear FReepers, we will win Wisconsin and there are a lot good reasons why.
1. Wisconsin is ultimate purple state. In 2000 Gore won the state by less than 5,000 votes out of 2.7 million votes cast. Kerry won in 2004 by only 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast. 2008 was unusual because Obama won by 412,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.
2. Fast forward to 2012, and the recall election on June 5th. Scott Walker was the devil incarnate to the public employee unions and the Democrats in this state. They went ALL IN to get him out, spent millions on ads, flew in hundreds of get out the vote union thugs, and they got a non presidential record 2.5 million voters to turn out. What was the result? The Democrat candidate lost to Walker by 171,000 votes, or 53%-46%.
3. With the lower enthusiasm for Obama, I doubt the turnout will be 2.9 million like in 2008, but will be higher than the 2.5 million for the recall. Let's say 2.8 million votes, or 300,000 more than the recall election. If the people who voted for Walker vote Romney this fall, Obama would have to make up the 171,000 deficit in just 300,000 votes. This means Obama would have to get 4 out of 5 votes out of that 300,000 to prevail.
4. The Ryan factor...There are 8 Congressional districts in Wisconsin and Ryan's District 1 is one of the more balanced districts. In 2004 Bush won over Kerry 54/46, but Ryan won his race 65/33. In 2008 Obama WON District 1 51/48, but Ryan won his race 64/35. Ryan is on the ballot for both his Congressional seat and as VP. The 'favorite son' factor is sure to add votes to Romney/Ryan that Romney would not have gotten without Ryan on the ticket. IF Ryan could win his district even 60/40 for Romney it would add almost 40,000 votes to Romney's totals vs what Obama got in 2008. In short, Ryan will take a pretty 50/50 district and make it more red than it normally is.
5. Thompson/Baldwin Senate race. Madison liberal lesbian Baldwin had a huge money advantage in the early part of this Senate race and savaged the popular former Governor. Tommy has found his voice and now has enough cash to compete with Baldwin on the airwaves. Tommy has taken a narrow lead in the race, and Karl Rove has poured his Crossroads USA cash into pointing out Baldwins radical votes. She is getting scared and running over the top anti Tommy ads. Tommy will prevail and hopefully this will help the top of ticket.
6. Reince Priebus ..The recall election gave Reince and the state Republican Party the opportunity to build the MOST sophisticated GOTV operation in the nation. The raw enthusiasm and incredible infrastructure which was built in the recall war this spring and summer was kept intact for the fall campaign. The Democrats thought their superior GOTV operation would win the recall and they got crushed 53-46. This fall will be closer, but I predict 50.5-49 for Romney/Ryan.
Good analysis. Thanks.
Without voter fraud and same day registration, WI would probably be a reliably red state.
Can’t argue with that. Good point!
You do not even need to remove Madison. Just remove all the out of state liberal students who should be voting absentee in their home state. That is probably 15,000 alone. I remember when the Supreme Court forced that alteration in voting law on us. I thought it was stupid at the time.
“R/R win. By a landslide. Wisconsin helps.I bought Champagne tonight. I’m THAT optimistic. :)”
R/R win by a landslide nationally, including here in Ohio! I have a bottle of Black Bush ready for cork popping (yes, it has a cork)...and intend to be sipping it cerimoniously in a known victory celebration about this time (10pm est) tomorrow night.
I predict a rout...(posted by me this morning on an earlier thread)...and no, I don’t smoke :)
Romney/Ryan win popular vote 53%-46%
ECV 322 (could go as much as 359) for Romney/Ryan
Senate +9 for GOP, giving GOP 56 seats
House +4 for GOP, giving GOP 246 seats
We will know enough of this by 10 pm est to feel good about breaking out the good stuff on which we have already been sipping, and the armies of DIM lawyers waiting to challenge and demand recounts will have gone home to drown in their sorrows. A rout!
God, I hope you’re right!
Ah, and if you are anywhere close by, come join me for a sip :)
Victory Loves Company!
Bingo!
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