Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Make Your Electoral College Prediction Here
November 05 2012 | vanity

Posted on 11/05/2012 3:28:14 PM PST by Para-Ord.45

Make your Presidential pick here. Winner gets a free toaster or a massive tax hike ( to be determined).

Keep it short, College Numbers.

Here`s mine:

Obama: 271

Romney: 267

( Au: $5000.00 / ounce )


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-75 next last

1 posted on 11/05/2012 3:28:19 PM PST by Para-Ord.45
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45
A toaster?

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

2 posted on 11/05/2012 3:30:15 PM PST by newheart (The greatest trick the left ever pulled was convincing the world it was not a religion.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Hmmmm....

R - 302
O -236

hmmm


3 posted on 11/05/2012 3:31:15 PM PST by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

R/R: 295 ohno: 243


4 posted on 11/05/2012 3:31:49 PM PST by freedumb2003 (We can’t just leave it (food choice) up to the parents. -- moochele obozo 2/12/2012 (cnsnews))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Governor Romney will capture 325 electoral votes while Mr. Obama will get 213.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 3:32:06 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: lacrew

R-305


6 posted on 11/05/2012 3:32:14 PM PST by shankbear (This Tagline space is for rent.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Agree


7 posted on 11/05/2012 3:32:55 PM PST by montanajoe (Blamed Flamed Shamed didn't vote for R/R or O/B)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

This is one of those rare times where I would like to see the forum make a sticky for these kinds of threads.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 3:32:55 PM PST by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Surprise upsets.... Romney takes Maine, Maryland, Delaware, and possibly California...


9 posted on 11/05/2012 3:33:35 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45
The Amazing Morphing Campaign Money Map
10 posted on 11/05/2012 3:34:00 PM PST by Berlin_Freeper (WINNING IS EVERYTHING!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

I’ve said Romney 320+ for a long time.


11 posted on 11/05/2012 3:34:23 PM PST by RightFighter (It was all for nothing.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45
Romney 325 with Obama in dispute with a third party.
12 posted on 11/05/2012 3:37:44 PM PST by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Romney 315
Obama 223


13 posted on 11/05/2012 3:38:01 PM PST by TheCPA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

I am going with Dick Morris - Romney 325!

Dick, I pray that just this once, you have it right!


14 posted on 11/05/2012 3:38:01 PM PST by The Californian (The door to the room of success swings on the hinges of opposition. Bob Jones, Sr.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Obama - However many electoral votes California and New York are worth

Romney - The rest


15 posted on 11/05/2012 3:38:39 PM PST by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: American Constitutionalist

I wish. Are you smoking something?

R&R 277


16 posted on 11/05/2012 3:38:44 PM PST by CollegeRepublican
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: The Californian

295/243 would jump to 315 / 223 if we get Penn, but teased by them too much in past to go with it!.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 3:39:30 PM PST by shoedog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: RightFighter

I ve been here sine early 1998. I couldn’t even guess. But if the communist prick wins I can tell you Thanksgiving 2012, Christmas 2012, and New Years 2012 are going to really be bad!!!! Not to mention the next four years. As to electoral votes, I have NO idea! This thing could be a nail biter to a landslide. It could even end up in state Supreme Courts since I don’t see the commie prick EVER conceding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


18 posted on 11/05/2012 3:39:35 PM PST by Doc Savage ("I've shot people I like a lot more,...for a lot less!" Raylan Givins)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Your an idiot for thinking Obama gets re-elected.

Because you think Obama will win I for one refuse to play your stupid game.

Childish I know, but it’s a character flaw I have learned live with.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 3:39:52 PM PST by OneVike (I'm just a Christian waiting to go home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

Of course you could just BOOKMARK it in your browser.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 3:40:03 PM PST by UCANSEE2 ( If you think I'm crazy, just wait until you talk to my invisible friend.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

R 315 O 223

R 52 O 47


21 posted on 11/05/2012 3:40:05 PM PST by The Klingon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CollegeRepublican

Just trying to be optimistic.


22 posted on 11/05/2012 3:42:00 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: RightFighter

I have Mitt at 321. I give him the usual suspects, + NV, + WI, +PA, +IA, + CO.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 3:43:23 PM PST by MrChips (MrChips)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

This is also an article being sent out this evening to several commentary sites. The article has an EV map graphic attached, which will not show up here.

I would like to take this opportunity to make some predictions about this election. Unlike many of my contributions, this one is not written to make a point, or to argue an ideology. It’s going to simply be a straight out listing of my predictions, prefaced by some reasoning for why I forecast as I do.

A couple of disclaimers before I begin. First, I make no claims to being a professional at this, in any way. I am not a professional political consultant, pollster, statistician, or number-cruncher. I’m just a guy with an inordinate, perhaps even unhealthy, interest in the polling side of politics, and who reads widely (yes, even people like Nate Silver) on the topic, and who has internalized a lot of the methodology and “conventional wisdom” that surrounds political polling, as well as some of the analyses for why the conventional wisdom is not always correct.

Second, when I attempted to make predictions the night before Election Day in 2008, I did a horrible, horrible job. I’ll admit it. My predictions were off by a mile, in many cases. For instance, I had McCain winning, for one, and had him winning several states that he, in fact, lost by almost ten points. Looking back, I can honestly assess that I was doing a little wishcasting of my own – replacing the data that I knew the polls were telling me with a gut “feeling” of what “ought” to be. In retrospect, I know that the reputable pollsters were all pointing to an Obama win – but I just “felt” that there was no way the American people could be stupid enough to elect someone like him. In that I was incorrect – 53% of us were. This time around, I have made a conscious effort to correct this previous flaw – perhaps to the point where some readers may find my predictions to be rather eeeyorish, compared to some of the more sanguine predictions coming from folks on the Right like Michael Barone and George Will (who can be rather pessimistic himself). Much of this correction has come from making the closer acquaintance with the ins-and-outs of polling science that I mentioned above.

As such, my predictions below come from the combination of a variety of sources – polls themselves, arguments that I have seen (and made) about polling methodologies, internal polls from the campaigns themselves, demographic arguments, etc. I cannot possibly begin to lay out the case for each and every particular prediction in each state as to why I am arriving at the conclusions I am. To try to do so would require me to finish this article after Election Day is over. So please – if you have some questions about something, I can try to answer with the particulars, but just know that you might get more than you bargained for, in some cases.

Anywise, without further delay, on to the predictions:

Overall popular vote: Romney 51% - Obama 47%

Swing states:

North Carolina – Romney 53% - Obama 46%

Florida – Romney 52% - Obama 47%

Iowa – Romney 50% - Obama 49%

Ohio – Romney 50% - Obama 48%

Virginia – Romney 51% - Obama 48%

Colorado – Romney 52% - Obama 47%

New Hampshire – Romney 50% - Obama 48%

Wisconsin – Romney 50% - Obama 49%

Michigan – Obama 50% - Romney 48%

Minnesota – Obama 51% - Romney 48%

Nevada – Obama 52% - Romney 47%

Pennsylvania – Obama 50% - Romney 48%

EV tally - Romney 296, Obama 242

The purple color for Maine indicates a splitting of the EVs. I think there’s a good chance that Romney may take the more conservative, rural ME-2 district, which means he would get apportioned an electoral vote from the state for it.

Some conservatives may be disappointed that I’m not showing Romney just blowing Obama out of the water in some kind of 350 EV landslide. I just don’t think we’re seeing that kind of election shaping up. Yes, Republicans and conservatives are obviously more energetic and enthusiastic than Democrats and leftists, and independents are favoring Romney pretty heavily. However, I still don’t think this is going to be the “Reagan in 1980” thrashing that some hope it will be. Instead, I think it’s going to be more like Bush’s victory in 2004 – not spectacular, but solid enough. And hey, as long as Romney is over 270, he wins regardless.

Now for some down ticket predictions in the Senate. Because I have not been following these races and the polling as closely, I’m not going to attempt to make numerical predictions – just which candidate I think will win, based on what I have seen.

Competitive Senate races:

Wisconsin – Thompson (R) narrowly defeats Baldwin (R gain)

Ohio – Brown (D) narrowly defeats Mandel (D retain)

Florida – Nelson (D) narrowly defeats Mack (D retain)

Nebraska – Fischer (R) handily defeats Kerrey (R gain)

Missouri – McCaskill (D) narrowly defeats Akin (D retain)

Montana – Rehberg (R) narrowly unseats Tester (R gain)

Connecticut – Murphy (D) defeats McMahon in a somewhat close result (D pickup from Independent)

Virginia – Allen (R) narrowly defeats Kaine (R gain)

Indiana – Donnelly (D) narrowly defeats Mourdock (D gain)

Massachusetts – Warren (D) narrowly unseats Brown (D gain)

Pennsylvania – Smith (R) narrowly defeats Casey (R gain)

There are many other Senate races going on, of course, most of which are not in doubt in any way as to their results. Overall, I think the GOP will end the night with a net of +3 seats. They won’t take the Senate, but will pick up some seats, narrowing the divide in that House. Please keep in mind that these calls on these races do not reflect what I would like to see happen (I would like to see the GOP win ALL of them), but what I think is going to happen, based on all the data I have seen.

As for the House, based on general partisan affiliation and enthusiasm data, I firmly believe the GOP will hold onto the House, but that they won’t add much, if any, to their overall total. Some Republicans will lose their seats, while other Republican challengers will turn out sitting Democrats. I would say that there will probably be anywhere from a -8 to a +8 seat change for the GOP – in other words, staying pretty steady for a body with 435 total members.

Well, this is it. I guess we’ll see late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning how close I actually came this time around.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 3:44:06 PM PST by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

R: 271
O: 267


25 posted on 11/05/2012 3:44:31 PM PST by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

R: 271
O: 267


26 posted on 11/05/2012 3:44:52 PM PST by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Romney: More than Obama

Obama: Less than Romney

That’s good enough for me.


27 posted on 11/05/2012 3:45:04 PM PST by FreedomForce (Lesser Evil 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

R/R - 316. O/B - 222


28 posted on 11/05/2012 3:47:12 PM PST by Fullclip (This year I ride for the brand.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

The same results as 2004 except NM, NV and IA go to Obama and NH goes to Romney.

R 279 O 259

R 51.2 O 47.8


29 posted on 11/05/2012 3:47:42 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Romney/Ryan - 277
Obama/Biden - 261


30 posted on 11/05/2012 3:52:44 PM PST by truthluva ("Character is doing the right thing even when no one is looking"..J.C. Watts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Romney 325+

Odungo 16 and a free dead Odungo phone


31 posted on 11/05/2012 3:55:38 PM PST by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45
Romney wins OH, CO, NH, IA, FL, NC, VA, and he may very well may win PA, MN, and WI too.

I think he wins them all...ending with 329 electoral votes.

32 posted on 11/05/2012 3:55:39 PM PST by condi2008 ("...absolutely massive, crawl-over-broken-glass turnout...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45
Its going to be either a complete Romney landslide (not likely), or a knife-edge victory for Obama or Romney.

Discomfortingly, I've gone over all kind of data and come to the same conclusion as you -- a narrow Obama victory, most likely put over the edge by cheating.

The truth is the swing states are simply not predictable, and it could go either way. But I'm pessimistic so I'm afraid Bamster will pull it off.

But remember -- think of the ratio of prayers flying up to heaven from a right:left perspective. We've got thme beat by a landslide in that department, so just trust in God and put this thing in His hands.

33 posted on 11/05/2012 3:56:04 PM PST by Wyrd bi ful ard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Wyrd bið ful aræd

“Its going to be either a complete Romney landslide (not likely), or a knife-edge victory for Obama or Romney.”

You’re just ruling out an Obama landslide. Way to cover your bases. :)


34 posted on 11/05/2012 4:00:47 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45
HERE'S MY..rather numberless yet accurate prediction....

The Endlösung

ON NOV. 7TH MORNING RETURNS TO AMERICA: IN THE END, RIGHT TRIUMPHS

VICE PRESIDENT RYAN

35 posted on 11/05/2012 4:01:13 PM PST by jimsin (w)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Wyrd bið ful aræd

I am the same. I’m 350 or 275 Romney. Could go either way. For this thread I will go with 350.


36 posted on 11/05/2012 4:04:04 PM PST by Chipper (You can't kill an Obamazombie by destroying the brain...they didn't have one to begin with.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

R^2: 281, Oh-jeez: 257

Mainly got rid of the novelty advantage O had in 2008 in several states that voted for him, but were traditionally red states.


37 posted on 11/05/2012 4:05:09 PM PST by opticks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

If the elections by 3PM tomorrow start to lean heavily towards Romney, I predict riots will break out and Obama for security purposes with stop the election process until civil control can be restored, during which many of the voting records will have been destroyed.

Maybe


38 posted on 11/05/2012 4:07:31 PM PST by realcleanguy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

The FR server goes nonfunctional by 10 a.m. tomorrow and comes back up 6 a.m. Wednesday unless the election is still in doubt.

As for the EVs... it’s going to be harrowingly close... either way. There’ll be no landslide.


39 posted on 11/05/2012 4:09:07 PM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan
True. Its just so hard to predict :).

I'm going to take a deep breath and call this for Romney, narrowly.

I still think a Romney landslide isn't out of the question though!

40 posted on 11/05/2012 4:11:23 PM PST by Wyrd bi ful ard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: newheart

Romney 333 post on FB 45 days back !!!


41 posted on 11/05/2012 4:11:49 PM PST by LocDoc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

318.


42 posted on 11/05/2012 4:12:29 PM PST by Defiant (If there are infinite parallel universes, why Lord, am I living in the one with Obama as President?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Wyrd bið ful aræd

I’m thinking Romney around 300 EV.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 4:13:49 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Fullclip

I’m with Fullclip. Romney gets 316

No Michigan, but R&R gets FL, NC, CO, IA, VA, OH, IN, WI and..........tra.daaaaaaa..... PA !!!!!


44 posted on 11/05/2012 4:16:50 PM PST by Walrus (Restoring America starts today! Let's roll!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Romney: 299
Obama: 239

My map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnSt

You can play around with the #’s here:

http://www.270towin.com


45 posted on 11/05/2012 4:18:15 PM PST by Drago
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

RR 291
OB less than that...


46 posted on 11/05/2012 4:18:34 PM PST by BallparkBoys (RESIST WE MUCH! ....We must, and we will much, about that, be committed!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Para-Ord.45

Romney 366
Obama - who cares

HHHAAA - I think this is going to be an absolute embarassment for Obama

That said I may be eating a large crow tomorrow night but I really don’t think so!


47 posted on 11/05/2012 4:20:14 PM PST by MissH
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TheCPA

It is in God’s hands so I just have Faith and pray Romney wins by much !


48 posted on 11/05/2012 4:23:52 PM PST by JFC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: TheCPA

It is in God’s hands so I just have Faith and pray Romney wins by much !


49 posted on 11/05/2012 4:24:04 PM PST by JFC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: TheCPA

It is in God’s hands so I just have Faith and pray Romney wins by much !


50 posted on 11/05/2012 4:24:12 PM PST by JFC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-75 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson