Hmmmm....
R - 302
O -236
hmmm
R/R: 295 ohno: 243
Governor Romney will capture 325 electoral votes while Mr. Obama will get 213.
Agree
This is one of those rare times where I would like to see the forum make a sticky for these kinds of threads.
Surprise upsets.... Romney takes Maine, Maryland, Delaware, and possibly California...
Romney 315
Obama 223
I am going with Dick Morris - Romney 325!
Dick, I pray that just this once, you have it right!
Obama - However many electoral votes California and New York are worth
Romney - The rest
Your an idiot for thinking Obama gets re-elected.
Because you think Obama will win I for one refuse to play your stupid game.
Childish I know, but it’s a character flaw I have learned live with.
R 315 O 223
R 52 O 47
This is also an article being sent out this evening to several commentary sites. The article has an EV map graphic attached, which will not show up here.
I would like to take this opportunity to make some predictions about this election. Unlike many of my contributions, this one is not written to make a point, or to argue an ideology. Its going to simply be a straight out listing of my predictions, prefaced by some reasoning for why I forecast as I do.
A couple of disclaimers before I begin. First, I make no claims to being a professional at this, in any way. I am not a professional political consultant, pollster, statistician, or number-cruncher. Im just a guy with an inordinate, perhaps even unhealthy, interest in the polling side of politics, and who reads widely (yes, even people like Nate Silver) on the topic, and who has internalized a lot of the methodology and conventional wisdom that surrounds political polling, as well as some of the analyses for why the conventional wisdom is not always correct.
Second, when I attempted to make predictions the night before Election Day in 2008, I did a horrible, horrible job. Ill admit it. My predictions were off by a mile, in many cases. For instance, I had McCain winning, for one, and had him winning several states that he, in fact, lost by almost ten points. Looking back, I can honestly assess that I was doing a little wishcasting of my own replacing the data that I knew the polls were telling me with a gut feeling of what ought to be. In retrospect, I know that the reputable pollsters were all pointing to an Obama win but I just felt that there was no way the American people could be stupid enough to elect someone like him. In that I was incorrect 53% of us were. This time around, I have made a conscious effort to correct this previous flaw perhaps to the point where some readers may find my predictions to be rather eeeyorish, compared to some of the more sanguine predictions coming from folks on the Right like Michael Barone and George Will (who can be rather pessimistic himself). Much of this correction has come from making the closer acquaintance with the ins-and-outs of polling science that I mentioned above.
As such, my predictions below come from the combination of a variety of sources polls themselves, arguments that I have seen (and made) about polling methodologies, internal polls from the campaigns themselves, demographic arguments, etc. I cannot possibly begin to lay out the case for each and every particular prediction in each state as to why I am arriving at the conclusions I am. To try to do so would require me to finish this article after Election Day is over. So please if you have some questions about something, I can try to answer with the particulars, but just know that you might get more than you bargained for, in some cases.
Anywise, without further delay, on to the predictions:
Overall popular vote: Romney 51% - Obama 47%
Swing states:
North Carolina Romney 53% - Obama 46%
Florida Romney 52% - Obama 47%
Iowa Romney 50% - Obama 49%
Ohio Romney 50% - Obama 48%
Virginia Romney 51% - Obama 48%
Colorado Romney 52% - Obama 47%
New Hampshire Romney 50% - Obama 48%
Wisconsin Romney 50% - Obama 49%
Michigan Obama 50% - Romney 48%
Minnesota Obama 51% - Romney 48%
Nevada Obama 52% - Romney 47%
Pennsylvania Obama 50% - Romney 48%
EV tally - Romney 296, Obama 242
The purple color for Maine indicates a splitting of the EVs. I think theres a good chance that Romney may take the more conservative, rural ME-2 district, which means he would get apportioned an electoral vote from the state for it.
Some conservatives may be disappointed that Im not showing Romney just blowing Obama out of the water in some kind of 350 EV landslide. I just dont think were seeing that kind of election shaping up. Yes, Republicans and conservatives are obviously more energetic and enthusiastic than Democrats and leftists, and independents are favoring Romney pretty heavily. However, I still dont think this is going to be the Reagan in 1980 thrashing that some hope it will be. Instead, I think its going to be more like Bushs victory in 2004 not spectacular, but solid enough. And hey, as long as Romney is over 270, he wins regardless.
Now for some down ticket predictions in the Senate. Because I have not been following these races and the polling as closely, Im not going to attempt to make numerical predictions just which candidate I think will win, based on what I have seen.
Competitive Senate races:
Wisconsin Thompson (R) narrowly defeats Baldwin (R gain)
Ohio Brown (D) narrowly defeats Mandel (D retain)
Florida Nelson (D) narrowly defeats Mack (D retain)
Nebraska Fischer (R) handily defeats Kerrey (R gain)
Missouri McCaskill (D) narrowly defeats Akin (D retain)
Montana Rehberg (R) narrowly unseats Tester (R gain)
Connecticut Murphy (D) defeats McMahon in a somewhat close result (D pickup from Independent)
Virginia Allen (R) narrowly defeats Kaine (R gain)
Indiana Donnelly (D) narrowly defeats Mourdock (D gain)
Massachusetts Warren (D) narrowly unseats Brown (D gain)
Pennsylvania Smith (R) narrowly defeats Casey (R gain)
There are many other Senate races going on, of course, most of which are not in doubt in any way as to their results. Overall, I think the GOP will end the night with a net of +3 seats. They wont take the Senate, but will pick up some seats, narrowing the divide in that House. Please keep in mind that these calls on these races do not reflect what I would like to see happen (I would like to see the GOP win ALL of them), but what I think is going to happen, based on all the data I have seen.
As for the House, based on general partisan affiliation and enthusiasm data, I firmly believe the GOP will hold onto the House, but that they wont add much, if any, to their overall total. Some Republicans will lose their seats, while other Republican challengers will turn out sitting Democrats. I would say that there will probably be anywhere from a -8 to a +8 seat change for the GOP in other words, staying pretty steady for a body with 435 total members.
Well, this is it. I guess well see late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning how close I actually came this time around.
R: 271
O: 267
R: 271
O: 267
Romney: More than Obama
Obama: Less than Romney
That’s good enough for me.
R/R - 316. O/B - 222
The same results as 2004 except NM, NV and IA go to Obama and NH goes to Romney.
R 279 O 259
R 51.2 O 47.8