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Dem leaning polling turnout/party ID samples are zot bait
Vanity

Posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:44 AM PST by George N

At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.

That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.

I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.

This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.


TOPICS: Local News
KEYWORDS: polls
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At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.

That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.

I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.

This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.

1 posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:47 AM PST by George N
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To: George N

At least you know what’s coming. But your ignorance is showing. You give far to much credit to the accuracy opand intelligence of the pollsters. Take 2010 or 1980. Now to go pop some pop corn and IBTZ.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 6:12:12 AM PST by Frapster (There you go again....)
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To: George N

BS


3 posted on 11/05/2012 6:12:38 AM PST by Bobalu (It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
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To: George N
2 posts since 07

nope, no troll here

4 posted on 11/05/2012 6:12:53 AM PST by Revelation 911 ("The whole contrivance imploded last night ..in in one great rancid...public fart")
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To: George N

Over sampling is the LEAST of the polls problems.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 6:13:10 AM PST by DManA
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To: George N

For your entertainment, Freepers:

MSNBC on the night of the Wisconsin Recall leading with their TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap and quickly realizing their over-sampled Dim polls were wrong. (But then cherry-picking results that were favorable to Zero from the SAME poll.)

ENJOY!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pchwcD4IPzs


6 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:06 AM PST by ShovelThemOut
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To: George N

Total waste of bandwidth.


7 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:17 AM PST by Post5203 (I bought 6 marines a beer at a bar recently and not one said thanks. I won't do that again.)
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To: George N

Then why do some polls are sampling D+1, while others are at D+11?

Sounds to me like they simply don’t have a clue.

Turnout is key. If Republicans and conservatives are as angry as we make ourselves out to be, then we have the numbers to flip this election. If that motivation is flagging, then we were never in the game to start with.

We’ll know very soon.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:43 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: George N

Thanks for warning us about amateur analysts with your amateur analysis.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:48 AM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: George N

You’ve made exactly two (2!) posts since you joined FR in 2007. This kind of strains your credibility here.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 6:15:35 AM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: George N

So I lack understanding and I am dangerous to question a poll of North Carolina that is D+13?


11 posted on 11/05/2012 6:15:41 AM PST by barmag25
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To: George N
Um, George, I sat through a mini-seminar on public polling (as opposed to private and corporate polling, which has a very clear consequence if you are wrong) by none other than Kellyanne Conway, a noted GOP pollster.

Among the things she told us:

*Public pollsters heavily oversample urban areas, and therefore de facto get more "Dems" even when they aren't identified as Ds.

*Public pollsters make up samples they "assume" are right, but have very little experience anywhere outside of the beltway.

*Public pollsters, due to the larger samples, employ people who are NOT pollsters but simply questioners. The result is, she said, they get quite lazy. They don't probe to get the real sentiment that will affect the vote (and therefore MAKE the vote) but they accept the first answer given. Likewise, this laziness translates into a tendency at the end of the polling time (out of frustration) to take whomever they get and label that person "a Hispanic," or an "over 40" or whatever. She was adamant that not just political internal pollsters but that corporate pollsters HAVE to be accurate, while the big firms can be close on some, hit on one or two, and tout the one or two they hit on and ignore the five they miss on.

12 posted on 11/05/2012 6:16:24 AM PST by LS
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To: George N

TIME TO BURN THIS MOTHERBLEEPER DOWN!


13 posted on 11/05/2012 6:16:56 AM PST by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: George N

Do you drive a Subaru by chance?


14 posted on 11/05/2012 6:17:18 AM PST by mn-bush-man
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To: George N

Did Obama just have back to back +30,000 rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania? No.

The media’s spinning all kinds of garbage, Jim Cramer’s seriously suggesting Obama will pick up Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.

That’s blatant propaganda on their part. Who cares what their “polls” have to say?


15 posted on 11/05/2012 6:17:18 AM PST by Shadow44
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To: George N

16 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:10 AM PST by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: mn-bush-man

More than likely a prius or a bicycle.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:15 AM PST by barmag25
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To: over3Owithabrain

Hard to accept an analysis by one who can’t be bothered to proofread their own post. Sloppy composition.

‘Teeth mashing.” Indeed.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:31 AM PST by FirstFlaBn
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To: George N

I am just going on anecdotal information but when you live in a small town you can definitely get a feel for what is going on.

Obama voters are not energized. They have no signs, they have no bumper stickers.

Many former Obama voters are planning not to vote rather then vote for Romney.

Romney voters are eager to vote, proud if they have already voted.

You can tell who probably voted for Obama because they don’t say who they voted for, Romney voters are proud.

On a last note, even college students aren’t all in love with the Revolutionary this time.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:31 AM PST by tiki
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To: over3Owithabrain

Hard to accept an analysis by one who can’t be bothered to proofread their own post. Sloppy composition.

‘Teeth mashing.’ Indeed.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:51 AM PST by FirstFlaBn
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