He claimed that James Carville taught him that the incumbent's percentage of the actual vote is what he's getting in the last poll (in other words, the incumbent generally doesn't get any of the votes said to be undecided by the poll). So, according to Gingrich, for example, if a swing state is at this point 48% for each candidate, Romney will win by about 52-48.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=642KbtSiMbA
New ad to send to everyone. What four more years of the Messiah would look like.
Thanks justiceseeker93.