Posted on 09/02/2012 5:37:54 PM PDT by Signalman
After visiting victims of Isaac in Louisiana, Mitt Romney swept into Cincinnati to campaign before a huge crowd with Speaker John Boehner even as Paul Ryan campaigned at the season opener between the Ohio State and his alma mater Miami University. (Ryan's Redhawks lost to the Bucks as expected, but many Redhawk alums are Ohio State fans, and if you are going to lose a game, lose the first game of the Urban Nation era.)
The invasion of the Buckeye State by Romney/Ryan is going to intensify for all the reasons noted in Sunday's lead story in The New York Times. It is possible for Romney/Ryan to win without Ohio --replacing those crucial 18 electoral votes with the votes of Wisconsin and Michigan, for example, or by turning Pennsylvania red-- but Ohio is the crown jewel of the "2012 is 2004" scenario, and it will go early on election in the "2012 is 1980" scenario. Once again my home state is at the center of presidential politics.
Romney/Ryan will pour resources into Ohio in support of the five good reasons to expect the Buckeye State to vote for a big change at the top:
1. The state's successful leadership is GOP. Under Governor John Kasich the state has turned around, and voters living there know what he did. Obamians want to argue it was the president's massive spending on GM that saved the state, but of course the folks who live there know that it is Kasich who balanced the budget, embraced all sorts of new industry but especially the oil-and-gas boom brought about by the Marcellus and Utica formations, and who leads an energized state every day. Ohio Senator Rob Portman will be doing debate prep with Mitt Romney all week but they will also be talking statewide campaigning in Ohio as no doubt Romney did with the Speaker yesterday.
2. Obama's EPA threatens the oil-and-natural gas industry which is helping lead the Ohio turnaround. Governor Kasich is a frequent and welcome guest on my program, and he is always careful to point out that Ohio's dropping unemployment is only partly the work of the energy boom, and that the energy boom is best served by careful regulations --at the state level. Obama's EPA, under momentary lock-down, will spring forth to destroy fracking if Obama is re-elected, and the northeast and central parts of the state that are just now beginning to feel the impact of the new discoveries and technologies will see their prospects dim again if Obama's hyper-regulators can bring their war against energy back to the state.
3. Ohio's Catholic vote knows the president is waging war on the Roman Catholic Church through the HHS regulations. I spent five days in Warren, Ohio, my home town, in mid-August, and found very few Obama supporters. Of course I was mostly with Catholics, and the sort of Catholics who attend Mass, and this group --many of whom overlooked their pro-life views to give the president a chance in 2008-- knows about the assault on Catholic schools and hospitals launched by the president and his HHS.
4. Ohio's Jewish vote, at last 150,000 strong, is no longer solidly Democratic, and the president's undercutting of Israel is known and understood by the state's Jewish voters. Some will excuse it, as this article notes, but many more won't.
5. Josh Mandel is waging a great campaign against uber-leftist incumbent Sherrod Brown, ranked as the most liberal member of a United States Senate even though the Senate includes Barbara Boxer and Al Franken! State Treasurer Mandel, a decorated Marine combat veteran and former student body president of OSU, is an indefatigable campaigner who has already closed large gap and turned the race into a dead heat in the most recent polls. Mandel is from Cleveland, is Jewish, and ran the biggest vote-getting campaign of all in the statewide races of 2010. His organization is out in force again. (You can help both the Romney/Ryan and Mandel campaigns via contributions via my ActRight list, where 100% of your donations go to the campaigns you select from the list of key races.)
Ohio will not in the end be close. It wasn't close in 2004 though Dems like to recall the screwed-up exit polls that led John Kerry to think he was winning for a few hours. Romney could easily top George W. Bush's margin of more than 100,000 if both Romney and Ryan keep working the state, from the western agribusiness to the resurgent northeastern corner of Youngstown-Warren and of course the southern areas of Ryan's college years in Oxford Ohio, home of the Miami Redhawks.
(Ryan's taking heat from the lefties for misstating his marathon time on my show two weeks ago. His brother was already giving him grief over his mistaken recollection and the attempt by the Obamians to turn a mistaken recollection of a running time from 22 years ago into a campaign issue tells you just how bare their cupboard is.)
With the importance of Ohio once again obvious to all, I am very glad to have added AM 1300 WMVO in Mount Vernon to the list of my Ohio affiliates led by AM 1420 WHK in Cleveland and AM 1450 WMOH --home of Redhawk sports!-- in the TriState area and Cincinnati area.
I like Hugh, but his record of predicting election is pretty bad. Still, I think he’s right this time, mainly because the RATs can’t hide how terrible Obama’s record has been.
ping
Hugh, you’re talking to the empty chair. ;-)
6. It’s OIHO d’uh!
Yeah. Pretty sure Hugh predicted McCain to beat Obama right up until the very end.
Ohio is one we almost have to have. It will be very tough for us this time, but definitely winnable.
I’d say within two weeks, we’ll know which way it is going to go. If the Kenyan is still below 50% in the polls after his convention ends, then Romney should be able to prevail here and overall.
Just a bit of anecdotal info...My dad lives in OH (Richland county). He and his retired buddies (about 15 old geezers in total) get together for bf and coffee every couple of weeks.
About 2/3 are democrats. We are talking generational dyed in the wool union members, mostly auto and steel unions.
They have always voted Democrat. However, this time, not one of them will be voting for the commie bastard (their words). Whether they will pull the lever for a Republican is questionable, but they will not be pulling it for Odumbo.
When it was finally revealed how bad the US financial implosion and cause were in 2009, I concluded that the next four POTUS will be one term starting with Obama in 2008. Why? Americans are impatient people. We want to see improvements within one term. Unlike Reagan recovery, the US is suffering from a balance book recession. Until private, corporate and gov debt is reduced, nothing will move forward. That is assuming the Wall Street bankers, national central bankers and Finance/Treasury of all gov can manage the derivative market, sovereign debts, velocity of money (hyperinflation timebomb), trade, social unrest and austerity etc etc. Since the world economy is inter related, US progress can be upended by overseas financial collapse. Fed Reserve and world central banks, as well as US Sec of Treasury (they may have different POTUS, but they all come from banks) decided to inflate our debts away. Middle class in US will die slowly if inflation is managed or implode if velocity of money ignites hyperinflation. Unless the US invents a new product and changes society radically, the inflation will destroy existing savings and salaries. IAW under current structure, the American people will become poor while the ones who receive capital first will be able to preserve their wealth or make more by reacting quicker then the rest of us who get the capital via trickle down (ala salaries). Since majority of Americans earn salaries progress will not be quick enough under Romney and he will be a one term POTUS. Most experts do not expect the current system to be sustainable past 2015.
Ohio is key, I know Freedomworks is going to put the full court press grassroots style on Ohio. Watch and see, this may not even be close. I don’t know if Club for Growth is there, they were very helpful here in Texas for Ted Cruz and was Fredomworks. Interested in your opinions.
Obama is misreading his pull by talking about "saving the auto industry." There were a large number of Delphi employees in Ohio who went down with the GM ship, and unlike the UAW thugs at GM, the Delphi employees had their pensions sacked by Obama.
I think Romney wins on turnout in Ohio. The enthusiasm gap is heavily in his favor.
Ohio is also a coal producing state. Their economy is directly affected by Obama’s war on coal.
Coal? Obama’s interference in Ohio runs the gamut! Coal is but a small piece of his meddling.
I cannot fathom a scenario by which Obama could win the state of Ohio.
Pray I’m right!
My wife's family lives in Springfield, OH. Same generational Democrats/Unions mentality and can't wait to pull the lever for NOT OBAMA this Nov. I'd say Ohio may go convincingly for Romney this time around.
Obama will be above 50% in all the public polls but just barely. That's how the MSM keeps people "tuning in" in an election year, close polls and flip-flopping leads.
The public polls will start to sort themselves out about the last of October.
The internal polls on the other hand will be much different. The public rarely sees those but you can tell those poll results by watching the candidates and surrogates. Right now I can tell Obama is in trouble. Look at the reactions by Tingle Boy and the She-male on MSNBC. Their boy is in trouble and they know it.
Hewitt wrote http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/if-its-not-close-they-cant-cheat-hugh-hewitt/1100331254?ean=9781418515843.
“I like Hugh, but his record of predicting election is pretty bad.”
And it’s still bad. Hugh is the poster boy of the smug elitist wing of the GOP.
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