I recall MS making a very similar claim about Win7: that it was the OS of their future and would only require minor tweaks to stay at the forefront of operating systems.
Gartner has been SO wrong about long-term trends SO many times, I do not know why they make them any more.
Predicting the technological landscape in 20-30 years is a fool’s game. Only one change in technology (breakthrough in quantum computing, holography, superconductivity, etc.) could change the entire scene. Certain kinds of political or economic upheaval could do the same.
Without bashing MS, I’d just like to note that 20 to 30 years is a verrrry long time in the world of computing!
Yeah, Gartner’s blowing smoke out of the back-end orifices here. This isn’t a Windows thing — there simply isn’t any computing platform that’s going to remain viable for 20+ years, no matter what it is. The industry is still evolving way too fast for that.
http://news.cnet.com/Gartner-Large-businesses-shouldnt-skip-Vista/2100-1016_3-6221925.html
“Gartner: Large businesses shouldn’t skip Vista”
http://www.mcpressonline.com/forum/showthread.php?7219-Gartner-Group-End-of-line-for-AS-400
“Gartner Group believes the AS/400 will not be a major system (from 1995)”
[Note: the AS400 architecture is still doing fine in the current IBM iSeries in the business and government markets where it has traditional had a home.]
Convergence.
We have already witnessed the convergence of PC and Laptop where the laptop can completely replace the PC.
We are now witnessing the convergence of Laptop, Tablet and Smartphone into a product that can replace PC, Laptop, Tablet, and Smartphone.
This is the natural progression of both battery and CPU efficiency.
We have no idea what technology will be popular in TEN years, much less twenty.