Skip to comments.New mobile-focused Windows could last 20-30 years -- Gartner
Posted on 06/28/2012 5:15:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Microsoft's new programming model WinRT -- showcased by the new Windows 8 -- is designed to keep Microsoft relevant in the increasingly mobile world, analysts from research firm Gartner said in a statement today.
"Windows 8 is the start of Microsoft's effort to respond to market demands and competitors, as it provides a common interface and programming API (application programing interface) set from phones to servers," Michael Silver, vice president and analyst at Gartner, said in a press release.
Gartner's analysts, who recently released a report on the changes to Windows, said enterprises will take about 10 years to fully move from WinNT to WinRT, but if it's successful, WinRT will be the face of Windows for the next 20 to 30 years.
WinRT, which is short for Windows Runtime, is the collection of application programming interfaces (APIs) that support Metro, the new user interface for Windows 8. It simplifies programming for developers. (And it's not to be confused with Windows RT -- yes, they're different, see the second question and answer in this FAQ.)
There's been plenty of buzz around Windows 8 recently, particularly with Microsoft's announcement of its new Surface tablet. Despite skepticism around when the new operating system will actually debut and how good it will be, the tablet seems to have put a positive spotlight on Microsoft's late, and necessary, move to a fully mobile focus.
Steve Kleynhans, vice president for client and mobile computing at Gartner, called Windows 8 a "technology shift."
"The user computing world is changing. PCs, although still critical components of the computing landscape, are no longer the only devices for delivering services and applications to users. Smartphones and tablets are fulfilling the role of the primary device for an increasing group of users, and most of these devices are from vendors other than Microsoft," Kleynhans said in the release. "In this environment, Microsoft needs to move to a platform that enables a new type of application and embraces new types of user experiences. Microsoft is responding to competitive pressures that have made it rethink not only how its products should look, but also how they should be architected for security and manageability."
Silver said Microsoft will continue to support applications created for the older operating system model but will encourage developers to create "more manageable and engaging" applications using WinRT.
I recall MS making a very similar claim about Win7: that it was the OS of their future and would only require minor tweaks to stay at the forefront of operating systems.
Gartner has been SO wrong about long-term trends SO many times, I do not know why they make them any more.
Predicting the technological landscape in 20-30 years is a fool’s game. Only one change in technology (breakthrough in quantum computing, holography, superconductivity, etc.) could change the entire scene. Certain kinds of political or economic upheaval could do the same.
Without bashing MS, I’d just like to note that 20 to 30 years is a verrrry long time in the world of computing!
Yeah, Gartner’s blowing smoke out of the back-end orifices here. This isn’t a Windows thing — there simply isn’t any computing platform that’s going to remain viable for 20+ years, no matter what it is. The industry is still evolving way too fast for that.
A better bet is Microsoft will not be a major player in 20-30 years. They follow the Detroit automaker business model: a mish-mash of marketing dept. requested features to make the sale but under the hood most everything is cheap junk.
“Gartner: Large businesses shouldn’t skip Vista”
“Gartner Group believes the AS/400 will not be a major system (from 1995)”
[Note: the AS400 architecture is still doing fine in the current IBM iSeries in the business and government markets where it has traditional had a home.]
We have already witnessed the convergence of PC and Laptop where the laptop can completely replace the PC.
We are now witnessing the convergence of Laptop, Tablet and Smartphone into a product that can replace PC, Laptop, Tablet, and Smartphone.
This is the natural progression of both battery and CPU efficiency.
i agree, 20/30 years is too long to predict. The arrival of the iPhone decimated RIM. the only company that has lasted for a very long in the tech world is IBM
We have no idea what technology will be popular in TEN years, much less twenty.
I think we will see a divergence into two products: a phone/entertainment product that can fit in your pocket, and a larger-screened product that fits in your briefcase that you can read text and documents from without eyestrain, and which allows for some sort of full-size keyboard.
My attitude is that if it's too big to fit in my pocket, it might as well be big enough to have a 19"+ screen.
Perhaps for a short time, we will see devices of various sizes, shapes and capabilities.
However, flexible keyboards and displays (or projectors) could create a pocket-size device that still has a full keyboard and display.
now they’re trying to go the IBM route and claim they are a services company. it doesn’t work — they’re not very good.
So are the zSeries boxes.
Want a job for the rest of your life?
Learn Cobol/DB2 and write your own ticket.
Those apps aren’t going away, no matter how many iPads they invent.
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