Poll: Joe Sestak overtakes Pat Toomey (We've Taken This Race For Granted)

The Morning Call ^ | October 19, 2010 | Colby Itkowitz

[Lazlo in PA]

Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.

[Lazlo in PA]

We need to start supporting Toomey hard in this race. We took it for granted a solid Conservative would breeze through in a blue state. Especially PA. If this is true, Toomey lost 9 points in less than a month and there have not been any gaffs on his part.

[italianquaker]

College polls make for good threads but not good polls

[Nachum]

Maybe this list on Sestak might be helpful..

http://www.nachumlist.com/sestak.htm

[gov_bean_ counter]

Look for junk polls from here out. Read earlier that this ones internals distort the balance between Dem, Pubbie and Indies.

[GoCards]

15% undecided is a large amount? Looks like they might have been for Toomey but now decided to be undecided now, blah blah blah....

[TexasKate]

This poll and the PPP are both bogus. Don’t lose heart.

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/10/20/2nd-poll-shows-toomey-falling-behind-sestak-in-pa/

[Lazlo in PA]

These folks are usually in the ball park. I dismissed the PPP poll yesterday, but two in a row showing significant loss makes me nervous.

http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/

[popdonnelly]

Don’t you believe it. Yeah, by all means keep Sandy Berger favorite Sestak out of the Senate, but this poll is probably inaccurate.

[wireman]

The poll is crap. A minuscule sample size. Wait for the next Rasmussen.

[April Lexington]

The beauty of the Internet is that, now, we can debunk garbage polls in a matter of minutes. This poll was cooked by Democrats who are trying to generate some momentum on the D side. Don't worry but keep working like your freedom depends on defeating Democrats. It, in fact, does.

[italianquaker]

hope I am right and you are wrong but PA is always a tease

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

It’s not true. Look at who took the poll. Do you see them polling a lot? Do you see their polls quoted as accurate?

The press is happy to grab anything that point to what they want and wave it around.

Even if the methodology is solid, there is still generally a 1 in 20 chance that a poll like this will just give wrong data (the second part of the “margin of error). A poll in that case is an “outlier”, as it lies outside of the area of confidence.

Show me a Gallup, Rassmussen or Mason-Dixon poll showing Sestak ahead and I would get concerned.

[kbennkc]

This might be my fault. I sent him ten bucks to to help defeat Spectre.

[LibLieSlayer]

I do not believe it and neither should you.

LLS

[BigEdLB]

College polls make for good threads but not good polls

Lemee see, Lefty Poly-Sci professor says, "Let's put on a poll!", and the eager young faces say, "Yes, let's!", and so you have a poll. Then the professor says, "You know who has to win?", and the students say, "Yes!". And the professor, calls the nerd of the class, a kid who know's numbers. His name is, Idoo Skew. The professor says, "You know what you need to do, Mr. Skew? "Yes professor, as my name says, `I Do Skew` ", and those internals will look nothing like they really are, but they will give you the desired result. The professor says, "That's great, but don't be so honest."

[equalitybeforethelaw]

I’m not surprised that Sestak is polling well on a public college campus. When your only poll showing you ahead was performed by fuzzy thinking profs at the local college, you know things are really going well.

[From The Deer Stand]

Poll, schmoll. The real poll is November 2nd. These bogus polls are just for the sake of deflating the Tea Party movement. Keep the faith! Keep pushing! Don’t let ‘em get to you!

[Red Steel]

Morning Call/Muhlenberg College

Ten to one they polled their Political "Science" Department.

[SmokingJoe]

Who the heck are Morning Call/Muhlenberg College?
Never heard of these suckers.
Last genuine poll had Toomey comfortably ahead..and that was just 6 days ago.

"Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pennsylvania Senate: Toomey (R) Grows Lead Over Sestak (D)
" Thursday, October 14, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThisRepublican Pat Toomey now holds a 10-point lead over Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, the widest gap between the candidates since early April in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey earning 49% of the vote, while Sestak picks up 39% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, but a sizable 10% remain undecided less than three weeks before Election Day. "
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R) 49%
Joe Sestak (D) 39%
Some Other Candidate 2%
Not sure 10%

[GeronL]

Did they change their formula/ratio like the PPP did?

The PP went from a 46d/44r to 48d, 41r and tried to highlight the “jump” for Sestak