Is Matt Simmons Credible?

OilPrice.com ^ | 07/27/2010 | Robert Rapier

[Faketan]

I am going to address a touchy subject in this essay, but I simply can’t ignore it any longer. I have noticed that a lot of people are finding my blog through keyword searches of “Debunking Matt Simmons.” About two and a half years ago, I did write an essay called Debunking Matt Simmons. Because of Matt’s recent claims about the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, there has been a spike in interest over whether his claims related to the disaster are actually credible. So now seems like a good time to revisit the subject.

Claims like "BP will file for Chapter 11 by July 9," and that "the 'real, untold story' is another leak that is 5-7 miles away spewing 120,000 barrels per day" are ruining Matt Simmons' credibility.

The topic is touchy because Matt Simmons has long been revered in the energy business, and some of his fans will be upset with me for writing this.

But Simmons has lately been making what I feel are very irresponsible and sensational claims that don’t hold up to scrutiny. So I will review his history here to show a pattern of Simmons making sensational predictions based on meager and/or misinterpreted data; predictions that later proved to be grossly inaccurate.

Matt Simmons, Investment Banker and Author

Matt Simmons is an investment banker to the oil industry, probably most well-known for writing the book Twilight in the Desert . The book laid out the arguments that Saudi Arabia had overstated their oil reserves, that their oil production was on the cusp of decline, and that prices were set to soar. Full article: Matt Simmons

[Gondring]

I haven’t the faintest idea where he came up with this, but I have spoken to several experts who say the chance of that is zero.

I've pointed out before where he came up with this. He talks about what a NOAA ship reported and gives the date.

Trouble is, he misunderstood the NOAA ship's report from that day...it was reporting that it noted oil moving from the Deepwater Horizon leak moving away from the leak site horizontally before making it to the surface. The underwater plume had moved 5-7 miles away from where it had originally come out...at the main leak.

I look at the claims he's made and have no idea why anyone would want his opinion on anything. He makes wild, wrong claims about things in fields in which he has no clue. He's pro-regulation and pro-hysteria, though, so I guess the MSM loves him.

[deport]

Is Matt Simmons Credible?

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Here’s a good one attributed to Simmons:

http://www.freepressonline.com/main.asp?SectionID=52&SubSectionID=78&ArticleID=7615

....
Simmons described the real blowout as an open hole gushing 120,000 barrels of toxic crude every day below the surface of the Gulf six or seven miles away from the riser. And BP is ignoring it, he said.

“What you are seeing on television, what BP is saying about relief wells . . . that’s a total ruse,” said Simmons.

That submerged lake of oil has grown larger than the size of Washington state and is approximately 500 feet thick, according to Simmons’ estimate.

“It’s thick oil, flowing like lava . . . covering a large part of the Gulf of Mexico and taking the oxygen out,” said Simmons. When it mixes with the upper layer, the toxicity will be released, and when it comes ashore Simmons predicts it will take a heavy toll in human lives.
......

end snips

500 feet deep covering an area the size of the state of WA?.......... LOL. Anyone can do the math and caculate the cubic feet based upon his flow rate and make their on determination of his credibitlity if the WA indicator is truly his.