Heads up, Houston

Florida State University ^ | July 19, 2008

[Dog Gone]

If you live along the Texas or Louisiana coast, you need to keep your eyes open for something that could mess with your plans next week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071900-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Click the FWD key.

That particular forecast model, which actually has been one of the better ones in recent years, shows a Category 4 hurricane hitting just east of Houston by mid-week.

[Eaker]

exploded into a cat3 within hours

Pyrotechnics?

[eastforker]

Uh, that would be Hydrotechnics, LOL!

[genxer]

ping for later

[stevie_d_64]

Yer just full of good news...

I think I’ll keep this from Wife Unit as long as possible...She’s still a little freaky about a little wind and rain...

[stevie_d_64]

I had heard the upper level winds in this part of the hemisphere over the last month or so have been really ripping apart any development and or potential development of tropical systems lately...

If anything this looks to be realistically heading to the south of us, and doesn’t appear (due to course and speed) to develop anything more intense than a TS...

But then again its all a crap-shoot anyway...

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst...

[stevie_d_64]

I haven’t...

[Sans-Culotte]

I live in Stafford (Meadows Place, really). There is no way I am evacuating. The Rita thing was a nightmare. To think that people died, had heart attacks, heatstokes, etc AND IT DIDN'T EVEN COME HERE.

Sure, a hurricane is scary. But heading out with 5 million other people to cities that don't have room for an extra 5 mil, in 100° heat, with gas at near $4 a gallon, and knowing we will run out on the way and that the stations will also be out-no thanks. I'll take my chances with the storm. If I lived nearer the water, it might be different.

[rustbucket]

We drove west on I-10 out of Houston on Wednesday afternoon, some two days or more ahead of Rita. It took us five hours to reach Austin, almost twice as long as usual. Ordinarily I wouldn’t have left that early, but a sister-in-law had gotten stuck in a highway jam for over twenty hours during an East Coast hurricane evacuation a couple of years before. She had waited too long before leaving.

[NautiNurse]

The GFDL model has changed substantially since the earlier run. Hurricane hunters are in there now. Hopefully, the models will have better info to track the system.

[Dog Gone]

We’re about to get the recon report.

From the satellite presentation we’re about to start humming, “You’re lookin’ swell, Dolly. I can tell Dolly. You’re still glowin’, you’re still growin’, you’re still goin’ strong”.

I’m less concerned about the forecast track at this time than whether it has truly achieved tropical storm status. Once that has happened, the model runs can initialize from the center of the storm instead of from all over the place like they did yesterday.

[Tuxedo]

It is now TS Dolly. Winds 40 knots. Center a bit north of what was originally expected. Should be issued from NHC at the 11AM advisory. From Wunderground.

[NautiNurse]

URNT12 KWBC 201404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1353Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
83 DEG 51 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 080 DEG 80 NM
F. 130 DEG 50 KT
G. 080 DEG 85 NM
H. EXTRAP 1009 MB
I. 23 C/450 M
J. 24 C/463 M
K. 22 C/28 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z

[Tuxedo]

000
URNT12 KWBC 201404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1353Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
83 DEG 51 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 080 DEG 80 NM
F. 130 DEG 50 KT
G. 080 DEG 85 NM
H. EXTRAP 1009 MB
I. 23 C/450 M
J. 24 C/463 M
K. 22 C/28 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z

[Tuxedo]

Sorry for duping your post there!

[Dog Gone]

Decoded:

Storm INVEST: Observed By NOAA #2
Storm #AA in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN (NaN)
Position of the center: 17° 58’ N 83° 51’ W (18.0°N 83.9°W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 80nm (92miles) From Center At Bearing 80°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 50KT (57.5mph 92.6km/h) From 130°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 85nm (97.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 80°
Minimum pressure: 1009mb (29.8in) — Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

That means Dolly is here. Waiting on the NHC advisory which is delayed for some reason.

[Ditter]

We live 2 miles west of the west loop and during Rita we didn’t even get a drop of rain.

[Dog Gone]

.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.4N 84.2W 1008 MB AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

DOLLY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.7N 86.3W EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...TO NEAR 21.1N 89.5W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 22.2N 92.2W MON NIGHT...AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN NEAR 23.0N 94.0W TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON WED.

DOLLY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE FAR WRN GULF THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND SW PART OF THE W GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WED AND THU. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU.