Open House seat creates lively GOP primary (MI 7th - at least 6 running - MARGINAL district)

Detroit News ^ | 9-16-03 | George Weeks

[Dan from Michigan]

A lively six-candidate Republican primary shapes up for the seat of U.S. Rep. Nick Smith, R-Addison, who does not plan to seek a seventh term next year and is considering a 2006 challenge of Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat.

There are some sharp ideological contrasts but no clear front-runner in the field that includes two term-limited state representatives and two candidates who last year unsuccessfully sought other offices.

[Dan from Michigan]

Nick Smith was a maverick congressman. He got on my nerves with his unpredictable gun votes at times. He DID however vote for getting out of the UN, and was the only one in Michigan to do so. I give him a lot of credit for that.

So far we have declared:
Paul DeWeese - Formerly a State Rep from Williamston, but moved to Eaton Rapids where he has his medical practice. He has a bit of an independent streak in him. Solidly pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment. Real nice guy too.

Tim Walberg - Former State rep. I'm unfamiliar with him. I think he was term limited in 96 or 98. He's from Tipton in Lenawaee County. Sounds conservative.

Brad Smith - Nick Smith's son. I don't know where he stands on issues.

Anne Norlander - Calhoun County Clerk, ran for Sec of State in 02 - Seems like a nice lady from when I met her. I don't know where she stands on the issue, but I've heard she's conservativer.

Clark Bisbee - State Rep from Jackson. Very pro-business, but he's anti-gun. He voted against Shall Issue Concealed Carry.

Gene DeRossett - State Rep from Western Washtenaw County. He's pro-2a and pro-life, and is most known for writing the law repealing the helmet law. Good guy.

Three others(haven't declared) I'm watching on the GOP side is Mickey Mortimer who is a real good guy, Frank Fitzgerald, who is anti-gun, and the UBERRINO Joe Schwarz. Schwarz is pro-abort, pro-tax, a McCainiac, and makes Jenny Granholm look pro-gun. That's bad. I would hate to see either Fitz or Joe win.

On the dem side, Mark Schauer scares the hell out of me. He's slick and is a veteran of tough campaigns. Doug Spade is the other dem. Spade voted for CCW. Schauer voted for CCW, but voted for all the bad amendments, and also cosponsored a gun grab. He wants it both ways and would likely vote 100% anti in the house. He's..well, a RAT!

By the numbers

Eaton County - 49272 voters - Bush won by 1592, 50%(Granholm won it)
Jackson County - 61946 - Bush won by 3906 - 52%
Calhoun County - 55080 - Gore won by 1021 - 50%
Branch County - 15783 - Bush won by 2052 - 55%
Hillsdale County - 17473 - Bush won by 3988 - 60%
Lenawaee County - 40093 - Bush by 2316(dem state rep) - 52%

Washtenaw County(approx) - 42548 - Bush by 2214 - 51% (The real bad areas are in Dingell's district - only dem areas here are Scio(Next to Ann Arbor) and Sylvan townships(maybe).)

Bush won the district by about 15047 votes. This is not a gimmee, especially since Schauer has a 'moderate image', a lot of money, and is a ruthless campaigner, combined with a major GOP primary. I saw his commercials on Lansing TV(30 miles from Jackson) almost as often as the Mike Rogers ads. This was for state senate, not congress.

[Dan from Michigan]

The latest.

[Dan from Michigan]

Areas Gore won(Bush won all the rest)
Eaton:
Lansing(part) by 1004 - 78%
Eaton Rapids by 326 - 50%

Jackson:
Jackson City by 2172 - 58%
Leoni Township by 229 - 51%

Calhoun:
Albion by 1238 - 70%
Battle Creek by 1718 - 53%
Bedford Township by 328 - 53%
Springfield by 280 - 57%

Lenawee:
Adrian City by 821 - 54%
Clinton Township by 25 - 49%

It's mostly a city vs suburb vs Country.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is VERY interesting and informative. I hope you have more postings like this coming up soon!

[AuH2ORepublican]

Actually, only part of Scio is included in the 7th district, the rest is in Dingell's 15th. I have to assume that the portion of Scio in the 15th is the more heavily RAT part of town, so perhaps Bush's margin in the 7th's portion of Washtenaw was a bit higher than you indicated. But you're correct in pointing out that, except for Scio and Sylvan, all the other Washtenaw townships in the 7th voted for Bush.

But the Gore margin must have been higher than 1,021 in Calhoun County, since a couple of Republican townships were added to Upton's 6th CD. All told, the 6th CD gave Bush 51% of the vote, not quite enough to make it a safe district. As I've stated before, the much-vaulted GOP redistricting plan was not truly optimal.

That being said, I hope we get a candidate who can appeal to voters throughout the district, not just in one candidate. The minister sounds promnising in that regard.

[Dan from Michigan]

According to Politics1, one dem announced. - Albert Widner (D) - Jackson County School Superintendent & Educator. - I never heard of him.

My guess is that the more rat part(the Ann Arbor border) is in Dingell's district. However, most of the rest of Washtenaw is marginal anyway. DeRossett won by the skin of his teeth last time(although I think he has Ann Arbor Township in his state rep district). The GOP calhoun townships will balance it out.(although I don't know which ones they are - probably marginal if near Battle Creek)

If the dem isn't Schauer or Doug Spade, this one is over before it starts. I don't think Spade will pull off the win. His brother ran for state senate, won Lenawee and got crushed out west(although it's a solid GOP seat because of that) in Branch, Hillsdale, and St Joseph counties. Schauer however held his own in Jackson against Mortimer and won BIG in Calhoun.

Bisbee's gun votes will cost him big throughout the district. Especially Eaton and Calhoun. Schauer ran as a "pro-gun dem"(talk) in 96 or 98 against an anti-gun GOP'er and won. I do expect business to line up behind Bisbee though. He's been great to them.

I wish I knew more about Walberg. It's been a few years since he was in office, and they still seem to like him in his area if the poll numbers are even remotely accurate. I don't know is 2a stance, but Lenawee is a big gun area. I have to wonder one thing. If Walberg's a minister, will that matter with the Catholic vote? I don't THINK it will in the general, because I think in this day in age, many Catholics would be happy just to see a Christian in office.

This is going to be an interesting race to say the least.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"most of the rest of Washtenaw is marginal anyway."

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Heck, every county in the district (save for Republican Branch and Hillsdale Counties) are pretty marginal.


"The GOP calhoun townships will balance it out.(although I don't know which ones they are - probably marginal if near Battle Creek)"

---

Looking at the map of the district you posted, and comparing it to a township map of Calhoun County, I see that the townships placed in the 6th district were Leroy (which gave Bush 55.7% and a 929-697 margin over Gore) and part of Athens (the entire township gave Bush 57.5% and a 636-442 margin over Gore, but I don't know what the portion in the 7th CD gave Bush).

For township maps of Michigan, you can go to http://www.michigan.gov/cgi/0,1607,7-158-12540_13083-31058--,00.html and click on the county you want.

[Dan from Michigan]

Gore then by 1447, still about 50%

[Dan from Michigan]

Including all of Athens in Upton's spot.

[Impy]

How come Granholm, Levin and Stabenow have favorable ratings with Republicans?

[Dan from Michigan]

I met Tim Walberg yesterday. Seems like a nice guy. He was talking about his experience in the legislature(term limited as state rep in 98) and his conservative record. He said he was pro-2a and has an A+ NRA record when I asked him.

I asked a couple of insiders. Joe Schwarz may or may not run. Same with Mark Schauer or Doug Spade. Those aren't finalized, but I expect the dems to try and run someone strong for this spot. Al Widner I never heard of.

[LoveMyCountry]

Best of luck to the candidates. I think this is a pretty safe district. Smith has held that seat for many many years, and he is well liked in the district. I think the voters will elect a candidate who thinks like Nick.

[robgop79]

There is one key element that everyone is skipping over in this race (some media has pointed it out) None of these candidates have been able to raise any money except DeRossett.

He is known in GOP circles in Lansing as a "top fundraiser" and raised $200K in his last state House race (which is unheard of) and already has $300K in the bank for the the congressional race. The nearest competitor is Bisbee who has $97K. Everone else is distant in comparison.

The crown jewel in this race, if por-choice Schwarz gets in, is going to be the Right to Life endorsement. NRA & the MI Chamber often base there endorsement on the RTL and RTL endorses based on "electablity". Electability = being able to get on TV & Radio.

Look for a surge in the polls for DeRossett as soon as he starts spending his money in the spring.