Posted on 12/31/2003 11:54:27 AM PST by bobjam
Looking Back at the Election of Howard Dean
December 31st, 2004 One year ago, few thought it would happen. A year is a long time in politics. A lot can happen. In the last year, a lot did.
At the end of 2003, things looked pretty good for Bush. Saddam Hussein had been captured, the economy was improving and the prescription drug issue had been stolen from the Democrats. Conventional wisdom held that Bush would easily be reelected to a second term. However, by spring, cracks were already forming. Conservatives, growing increasingly uncomfortable with Bush’s less than conservative domestic agenda, began openly questioning his leadership. The failure to get judicial nominees through a GOP controlled Senate, the massive increases in the federal beaurocracy, the civil liberties abuses of the USA PATRIOT Act, the creation of an expensive prescription drug entitlement, and the passage of the Kennedy drafted education bill provided conservatives with much to complain about. The final straw came in summer of 2004 when Bush, as he had pledged, signed the renewal of the Assault Weapons Ban. Almost immediately his poll numbers began falling as more and more conservatives decided to either vote Libertarian or to simply stay home on Election Day.
By the middle of February 2004, Howard Dean, who began his quest for the White House as a little known politician in a choir of Presidential wannabes, all but secured the Democratic nomination. With 8 months to go and most of his war chest in tact, Dean was ready to begin marketing himself to the general electorate. Touting his own management of Vermont as an example of what to do, Dean hounded Bush’s high deficits. Dean pledged to cut the wasteful spending, repeal much the USA PATRIOT Act, and eliminate the deficits. Dean also criticized the Assault Weapons Ban renewal bill, saying it was too extensive, irrelevant to rural states, and ineffective at stopping crime. Dean also pledged that, though he personally opposed capital punishment, if such a sentence were handed down properly in a federal trial, he would honor it.
Bush’s falling out with conservatives and Dean’s excellent fundraising paid dividends. In May Bush was ahead by 10 points. Unable to capitalize on the successes in the War on Terror (by then, September 11th had been largely forgotten), Bush began to slip. By July, his lead had fallen to 5 points. As Dean gained momentum, major Democratic fundraisers who had planned on sitting out 2004 began pouring in cash. Meanwhile, Bush’s fundraising was hampered by a lack of enthusiasm in his voter base. The turning point came in September when, given Bush’s signing of the AWB, and Dean’s criticism of it and past record on gun control, the National Rifle Association officially endorsed Howard Dean for President. The GOP Convention was overshadowed in the news by massive protests outside and a somewhat chaotic atmosphere inside. Dean’s selection of Bob Graham as running mate assured him Florida and a good chance of carrying other crucial southern states. On Election Day, the voters chose Dr. Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont to be the 44th President.
LOL....been hitting the champagne a little early, have we?
And then I woke up..it was a horrible horrible dream..an incumbent President with no major intra party rival..with an expanding economy..with the wars being won..who could possibly think that President Bush would not be re-elected..especially against a northeast liberal. President Bush will be re-elected..
"Controlled" yeah right. So instead of voting for Bush and their Republican Senate nominee they'll stay home?? :\
the civil liberties abuses of the USA PATRIOT Act,
That don't exist.
more conservatives decided to either vote Libertarian
Uh uh. They seem to be against fighting terrorism. Without Harry Browne they'll barely register in the '04 vote.
Dean hounded Bush’s high deficits.
Not to say that they shouldn't but most voters don't give a crap about the deficit. If they did there would nothing but solid conservatives in congress.
Dean pledged to cut the wasteful spending,
My eyes have rolled out of my head and are now on the floor.
repeal much the USA PATRIOT Act,
Soft on Terrorism=landslide defeat.
and eliminate the deficits.
By hiking taxes. No go.
Dean also criticized the Assault Weapons Ban renewal bill,
Like hell. I think Bush can really kill Dean with his racist and constitutionaly unsound position on gun control. (good in Detroit, bad in Vermont)
(by then, September 11th had been largely forgotten),
If we ever do "forget" then we're toast.
major Democratic fundraisers who had planned on sitting out 2004 began pouring in cash.
Hill and Bill will tell them not to. They don't want Dean to win.
Meanwhile, Bush’s fundraising
He's raised the most money ever and will continue to do so.
the National Rifle Association officially endorsed Howard Dean for President.
See above. (include the eyes on the floor) The NRA is a CORE GOP group
Dean’s selection of Bob Graham as running mate assured him Florida
Bull.
and a good chance of carrying other crucial southern states.
Give me a break, really, come on.
I don't want to be "overconfident" but come on, Dean is a joke. So much of a joke that for some people it's so hard to believe it that they figure maybe he must really be a magic bullet. I mean come on! Can the rats be that stupid? Well it's looking like they are.
At WORST it will be a close race if Dean can get the whole normally rat-leaning half of the nation to vote for him. Anyone who thinks Dean is the rat version of Reagan or will be "assured" of winning Florida by picking it's crazy old Senator as a running mate is living in Candyland. No offense. ;)
The time to worry is '08 when the Hildabeast will rise.
Signing a law socializing prescription drugs was a mistake, but it was a mistake that he promised to make in 2000. We knew it would happen when we elected him. Failure to get judges through the Senate is frustrating, but it won't hurt him that badly with his core supporters. They are just pleased that he's nominating people that the liberals hate so much. Signing campaign finance reform was the biggest example of President Bush breaking a promise that he made in 2000, and it could cost him a few votes. If the assault weapons ban passes, it will undoubtedly hurt his fundraising and cost him votes. Some of the votes will be in states that he'll win easily, so maybe it won't make a difference. On the other hand, the reduced campaign contributions will hurt him some. These are all weaknesses of this administration, and they leave the door open for Dr. Dean. Your warning that they are cause not to be overconfident is worthwhile.
Where I think you make a miscalculation is in not seeing that many of the people who are uncomfortable with this adminstration are also very worried about immigration. They are angry and worried about illegal immigration, and they are worried that legal immigration policies are not enacted and enforced in a way that is best for the country. These people will not turn to the Libertarian Party because the LP is even weaker on this issue than President Bush is. If they vote for a third party, it will likely be the Constitution Party.
Here's hoping that your scenario doesn't come to pass.
Who else are you going to vote for? If you don't vote for Bush, HILLARY will get elected. Is that what you want??? You're just gonna have to hold your nose and vote for him, he's the lesser of two evils! Bush is the only thing standing between us and complete socialism! And Europeans, Muslims, the UN, etc HATE Bush, so he MUST be good!
Besides, Clinton was worse! And it's obvious Bush is just stealing Democrat issues - all this spending is just to get Bush re-elected, and then he'll follow the constitution! Small government? Please - that's the OLD GOP. Get with the times, man!
In fact, constitution? What constitution! Gen. Franks has suggested the constitution might have to be suspended - I say why wait? The constitution is actually a hindrance to the number one goal: Protecting us from terrorists!
PATRIOT Act? What rights have you personally lost? And if you have lost some, so what? THIS IS A TIME OF WAR! If you're against the PATRIOT act, you must be supporting the terrorists! Bush is protecting us from terrorists, and that calls for extreme measures! Occasionally we have to give up some liberties for security! The only ones who don't agree are liberals and dope-smoking libertarians!
And every law he's passed that has been criticized is actually good! And those that aren't, such as CFR, well - we'll find a way around them!
Oh, and let me say one more time: THIS IS A TIME OF WAR!!!
Bush in 2004, y'all!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.