Posted on 04/15/2024 4:06:45 PM PDT by Chad C. Mulligan
A paper at the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), founded by researcher John Lott, shows how faith in the police, arrest rates, and crime reporting are all interrelated. The paper is titled " The Collapse in Law Enforcement: As Arrest Rates Plummet, People Have Been Less Willing to Report Crime", published on April 5, 2024.
As faith in the police collapses, reporting of crime drops, and so do arrest rates and clearance rates for both violent crimes and property crimes. This has the classic look of a positive feedback loop. The consequences are far from positive. It is not a clear case of simple cause and effect. Faith in the police, reporting of crimes, and arrest rates are all interconnected in complex ways.
Not only does the arrest rate fall when most crimes are not reported, a falling arrest rate makes faith in the system decline even more, which results in a lower reporting of crimes. This explains a phenomena mentioned in the paper. While the official statistics of crime may be lower, people's perception of the crime they experience tells them the crime rate is worse.
(Excerpt) Read more at gunwatch.blogspot.com ...
It will soon be the wild, wild west.
If you have faith in the police, you might get arrested.
...it’s not the police, it’s their political masters that is the root problem. The police are minions to Satan and don’t even know who they are ultimately working for. I feel sorry for the idealistic 20 year-old who enters the corps in a desire to do the good and ends up becoming part of the problem. Such a sad state of affairs that we live in these days, so sad!
Back the blue, till it happens to you.
Tough subject.
Both John Lott and Dean Weingarten are top notch experts and American Good Guys, practicing Reasoned Critical Thinking.
The confusion in the "positive feedback loop" is in the direction of rotation.
Reverse the direction and positive feedback order reverses.
As arrest rates drop, so does faith in police.
The well written book War On Cops by Heather Macdonald came out in 2016. Since then things are much worse.
Here is the blurb:
Homicides jumped nearly 17 percent in 2015 in the largest 50 cities, the biggest one-year increase since 1993. The reason is what Heather Mac Donald first identified nationally as the Ferguson effect”: Since the 2014 police shooting death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, officers have been backing off of proactive policing, and criminals are becoming emboldened.
This book expands on Mac Donald’s groundbreaking and controversial reporting on the Ferguson effect and the criminal-justice system. It deconstructs the central narrative of the Black Lives Matter movement: that racist cops are the greatest threat to young black males. On the contrary, it is criminals and gangbangers who are responsible for the high black homicide death rate.
The War on Cops exposes the truth about officer use of force and explodes the conceit of mass incarceration.” A rigorous analysis of data shows that crime, not race, drives police actions and prison rates. The growth of proactive policing in the 1990s, along with lengthened sentences for violent crime, saved thousands of minority lives. In fact, Mac Donald argues, no government agency is more dedicated to the proposition that black lives matter” than today’s data-driven, accountable police department.
Mac Donald gives voice to the many residents of high-crime neighborhoods who want proactive policing. She warns that race-based attacks on the criminal-justice system, from the White House on down, are eroding the authority of law and putting lives at risk. This book is a call for a more honest and informed debate about policing, crime, and race.
Why would we bother to report, and give a statement, fill out paperwork, possibly have to take time off work to testify, and maybe even become a target for the criminals’ friends, if the DA is just going to let most of them walk anyway?
The police hate conservatives or Trump supporters. I lost all respect for them back in 2015 and during Trump’s campaign.
Rudy.Giuliani.Broken.Windows.CrimeStat
The US does have the highest per capita incarceration rate in the world. Much much higher than comparable Western democracies. Even higher than China and Russia (although admittedly the China and Russia numbers are suspect)
The fed criminal justice system is rife with corruption, lawfare resulting in coerced plea deals, so no wonder prosecutors have over 95% conviction rates.
They like to point out with pride that a ham sandwich can be indicted. That’s the sine quo non of a tyrannical system. Certainly nothing to be proud of in a constitutional republic.
Police also rely heavily on algorithms, artificial intelligence programs which use dubious crime predictive markers to target suspects. Minority Report stuff. This can result in positive feedback loops where more police are sent to high crime areas where they inevitably find more crimes and send in more police.
It’s not too hard to convict someone of a crime when you control the evidence, the witnesses, the judges, and the media narrative.
The persecution and prosecution of Trump should be enough evidence that anyone can be taken down if people in the government want to do so.
Why would we bother to report, and give a statement, fill out paperwork, possibly have to take time off work to testify, and maybe even become a target for the criminals’ friends, if the DA is just going to let most of them walk anyway?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
Reverse racism has pretty much destroyed public safety in most urban areas, and to nobody’s surprise 95% of the victims are white.
A lot of good points in your post but to me the standout is this line:
The persecution and prosecution of Trump should be enough evidence that anyone can be taken down if people in the government want to do so.
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