Guns Of August! Housing Starts Plunged In August (-11.3% Since July), Down -14.8% YoY

Confounded Interest ^ | 09/19/2023 | Anthony B. Sanders

[Kaiser8408a]

This isn’t Barbara Tuchman’s class novel about the horrors of World War I, but the ongoing horrors of Bidenomics with its guns pointed at the American middle class.

Privately‐owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,283,000. This is 11.3 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,447,000 and is 14.8 percent below the August 2022 rate of 1,505,000.

Single‐family housing starts in August were at a rate of 941,000; this is 4.3 percent below the revised July figure of 983,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 334,000. This leaves Starts (SAAR) at their lowest since June 2020 and Permits (SAAR) at their highest since Oct 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, multi-family rental starts plunged by the most since June 2020 while single-family permits rose for the 8th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

For context…

Finally, if sentiment among homebuilders is collapsing again, why are they loading up on permits?

Source: Bloomberg

And why is construction employment still holding near its highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Will The Fed see permits soaring as homebuilders betting on their dovishness and step in tomorrow to curb-stop that optimism?

The Guns of August … Bidenomics’ guns pointed at the American middle class.

[Kaiser8408a]

Guns of Ukraine by Joe Biden.

[Mr. K]

I am beginning to think that building your own house is the ONLY way to go these days.

Yes, I mean with your own two hands.

You can subcontract some things (concrete, electrical, plumbing..) but for the most part a lot can be done by yourself if you have half a brain.

[citizen]

My next door neighbor in N. Atlanta (Chamblee area) got into home improvement with a partner 20 years ago. After a couple of years of that, they went all-in on what’s referred to as “in-fill” home construction. An in-fill home replaces an older, small house with a new, sizeable home. My old, gentrified neighborhood was fertile gound for such construction.

His first projects were his home/lot and mine. Getting 1-year construction loans, he bought my lot for $210,000 and he already owned his own lot. My little house built in the 40s and his own, somewhat newer, were razed right away. He brought in landscaping contractors & equipment to work the land to spec.

In relatively short order, both small houses were replaced with as much house as the housing codes would allow. He hired crews as necessary but much of the work was done by him and his partner, 7-days a week.

The completed homes sold right away, back then, and they cleared well over a half-million on the two properties.

So, yeah, do-it-yourself home construction is possible in the right conditions...but you have to have the know-how, the connections, starter cash, can buy or prepare conscruction plans, build to a schedule, be competent and be willing to deal with permitting, etc. and work long hours every day.