Posted on 12/26/2022 7:20:58 AM PST by Red Badger
With the last elections finally decided and the last fundraising reports for 2022 already being compiled, we have well and truly entered the 2024 presidential cycle.
The hottest question right now is whom the Republicans will nominate. In recent months, the likelihood that it will not be Donald Trump has increased significantly, although it may still be greater than 50%.
There is a misconception among many Republican Trump supporters, who naively would like to have their cake and eat it too. They want to see Trump given the nomination in 2024, but they don't want to see an end to the career of the GOP's rising star, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. And so they talk as if it's just not DeSantis's time yet. He should just defer to Trump in 2024, they say, and wait his turn until 2028.
This is completely wrong if you look at it from the Florida governor's perspective.
To be perfectly clear, if he waits until 2028, DeSantis will be term-limited out of office and with no job prospects in any relevant political role. One inferior option to running as a sitting governor (from a presidential race perspective) would be to run as a sitting senator. But DeSantis will not have the option of seeking an open U.S. Senate seat to stay relevant, as there is no Senate election in Florida in 2026. He's not going to go back and run for his old House seat, obviously. So, what can he do?
By the way, what happens to out-of-office Republican governors in presidential races? Ask Tim Pawlenty, Jeb Bush, or Jim Gilmore if you're interested. (By the way, none of those guys won when they ran for president.)
Even worse than DeSantis's loss of relevance will be the loss of relevance of what he did as governor. The issues that have made DeSantis's governorship memorable and successful may not even be on the table anymore in five years. His battles against the cultural Left will be a thing of the past, a mere footnote in political history. So will his brave decision to keep his state open, as well as all the other work that people might find appealing — say, to preserve the Everglades and end special favors for the Walt Disney Corporation.
At this moment, DeSantis finds himself more popular and better liked than Trump, and even leading Trump in head-to-head matchups, although he trails if the GOP field gets more crowded. And equally important, DeSantis leads Joe Biden in head-to-head polls. Democrats almost appear to be stuck with Biden, who is already deeply unpopular and likely will remain so in 2024. In 2028, they might have someone much more likely to win a general election.
So, in short, the conditions may never be this good for a run by DeSantis again. In fact, they are very likely never to be this good again.
Meanwhile, Trump is not entitled to the nomination. If he wants it, he has to win it. And setting all other merits about the candidates aside, Republican voters will be weighing the merits of working so hard to elect someone who can serve one term at most. Wouldn't it be better to elect someone with a leg up for eight years of selecting conservative judges and rolling back Biden-era rules? In 2024, this argument weighs in his favor. In 2028, it won't give him any special advantage over his chief rivals.
So, there's only one thing for DeSantis to do if he ever wants to become president, and that is to run in 2024.
Ping!..................
Why, no republican will ever be president when they run at any time. The elections are all rigged.
Desperate....
“By the way, what happens to out-of-office Republican governors in presidential races? Ask Tim Pawlenty, Jeb Bush, or Jim Gilmore if you’re interested.”
I’d rather ask Ronald Reagan, if I could.
He’s a fairly young guy so he has plenty of time to run for President. Its questionable if Republicans can reasonably overcome “covid voting” regardless of how popular the politician is.
Im discounting ballot box stuffing with that (which probably does happen) but simply the lazy voter (who is always going to be mostly a Dem)
“The NEXT election is the most important election of our lifetimes!“ LOL
That’s Hannity’s line.
I think he has it copyrighted.......................🤔
Good point. Reagan had been out of office as governor for 6 years when he was elected president.
Jimmy Carter was also a private citizen when he ran for president. So was Hillary when she ran in 2016. So was Nixon when he made his political comeback in 1968.
I don’t understand the idea that one needs to be currently in some elective political office in order to run for president.
Not true. If the powers that be decide it’s time for a fake Republican like Liz Cheney to advance the agenda while being a whipping boy for the Dems and media, they’ll arrange for it.
> Why, no republican will ever be president when they run at any time. The elections are all rigged. <
It’s hard to disagree with that. The only reason Trump won in 2016 was that the Democrats got overconfident and lazy. Why bother cheating when Hillary was obviously going to win?
The Democrats will not make that mistake again.
Quick story: A Democrat acquaintance of mine was a Hillary supporter in 2016. So he called the local Democrat headquarters and asked for a Hillary sign to put in his front yard. Sure, he was told. The signs are $5 apiece.
How’s that for arrogant overconfidence? Instead of happily giving away the signs, they were charging for them. My acquaintance passed on the deal.
Seriously? Prophecy?
Not holding office didn’t hurt Trump.
By golly, I think you've figured it out...
No Republican will ever be president unless s/he is a closet Democrat allowed to win by the Uniparty so it doesn’t matter.
The Blue Wall was fortified in ‘20 and again in ‘22
This assuming the election will not be stolen.
Most Repubs will vote for Trump. Of course the Dem far left base will vote for Biden—they would vote for a certified severely profoundly retarded if it gave them power.
The problem is the middle and moderates. Many of which are low info voters and follow the main stream media for their news. They have been conditioned against Trump and will vote for Biden when they otherwise would have voted for a Desantis.
Biden wins agin by a slim majority and we will have another unbelievably bad few years until he dies and is replaced by the idiot Harris. Not sure if we will ever recover.
That’s my prediction, write it down. I hope you will make fun of me for being wrong in 2 years.
DeSantis could flip AZ, GA, and even VA (given Youngkin's win). These three states earns 272 electoral votes and the White House.
The cheat was in, Trump just won so big it overwhelmed the cheat. Dido 2020 which is why "they" stopped the vote count and trucked in hundreds of thousands of fake ballots. Once again the Trump vote overwhelmed the built in cheat. But this time (2020) "they" did not care if the cheat was exposed or not. The stakes were to high so they cheated out in the open. "What are you going to do about it" is their attitude.
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