Posted on 05/22/2022 3:42:50 AM PDT by blam
Droughts, flooding, heatwaves, and even war threaten wheat production worldwide, pushing up the price of bread, pizza crust, pastries, and noodles. Just about every major producer is facing some issue, and the latest is in the US, where ‘crop scouts’ have begun to scour arid fields across the Midwestern US.
Bloomberg reports crop scouts from the wheat industry have begun to examine plants in farm fields in Kansas to Oklahoma to Nebraska. Harvest is just a few weeks away, and there are concerns devastating droughts have caused damage in US wheat country.
Some farmers already are writing off losses from parched grains. The US Department of Agriculture expects lower yields in Kansas, the top-growing state for hard red winter wheat, a staple relied on for bread flour. The shortfall is seen by USDA as pushing national production to the smallest since 1963, fueling fear of global food shortages as war in Ukraine and weather challenges elsewhere puts supplies at risk. -Bloomberg
It’s very clear the world is now looking at North America for robust wheat production, and with that, there need to be optimum conditions and strong yields. However, that may not be the case.
“This is a very challenging year with not a lot of good news,” said crop scout Romulo Lollato, a wheat specialist at Kansas State University. He pointed out that minimal rainfall and freezing temperatures in early April could have damaged crop yields.
Aaron Harries, vice president of research and operations for Kansas Wheat, said, “it’s been a weather roller coaster” across the Midwest.
Some scouts see bright spots after recent rains. Though a megadrought continues to consume large swathes of farmland.
Meanwhile, wheat futures in Chicago are soaring, near all-time highs, as traders are pricing in what could be a year of low harvest production.
Last week, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published by the USDA showed wheat production in Ukraine is expected to plunge by one-third this season compared with last year.
AGRICULTURAL MARKETS: The USDA just published its first really detailed look at 2022-23 crop year, painting a tight outlook for corn and wheat, with production down. On the other hand, rice will enjoy a larger — and record high — harvest | #OATT #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/MJgXcZRje4
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 12, 2022
There are also concerns in Canada, India, and China about harvest declines due to adverse weather conditions. Then there’s the Black Sea region, plagued by war that will plunge crop production this year and next.
The final production numbers for the US won’t be known for months, though crop scouts will have an idea of what wheat supplies could look like after they wrap up their inspections. USDA’s expected to release its estimate based on hundreds of samples on Thursday.
“We Are on the Precipice”
https://dailyreckoning.com/we-are-on-the-precipice/
I don’t believe many people grasp the enormity of the global food crisis we’ll be facing in the months ahead. But the world could be on the verge of a massive humanitarian crisis. Let’s dive in…
The supply chain collapse preceded the war in Ukraine, but the war has only intensified the problems. You can see it with your own eyes when you walk into a supermarket and find long stretches of empty shelves in stores that used to be chock-full of food and other merchandise.
Even goods that are available such as gasoline are being sold at much higher prices. Prices for gasoline (and diesel, which is critical for goods transportation) have more than doubled in the past nine months. All of this is clear. The question is will it get worse from here?
Unfortunately, the answer is yes.
// SNIP //
Many countries get 70–100% of their grains from either Russia or Ukraine or both. Lebanon gets 100%. Egypt is over 70%. Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, many central African countries and Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries receive much of their grain from Russia or Ukraine.
No Planting, No Crops
But it’s worse than that because not only are many Ukrainian exports shut down now, but the planting season is nearly over. And you’re not going to get any grain in October if you didn’t plant it in April or May. And they didn’t for obvious reasons.
What that means is you project ahead to October, November, December of this year, those countries I mentioned are not going to be able to get their grain supplies. There simply aren’t going to be any, or they’ll be greatly reduced. The combined population of countries that get between 70% and 100% of their imports from Russia or Ukraine is 700 million people.
That’s 10% of the global population. So you’re looking at mass starvation. You’re looking at a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions, probably the worst since the Black Death of the 14th century. That’s coming down the road, even if most people can’t see it coming or fully fathom the depths of the coming crisis.
// SNIP //
What if the War Drags On?
And what if the war in Ukraine drags on well into next year? Next year’s growing season would also be disrupted and the shortages could extend into late 2023 and beyond.
Well, maybe some would argue that other nations could pick up the slack and grow additional grain. That’s nice in theory, but it’s not that simple.
Russia is the largest exporter of fertilizer, and sanctions are cutting off supplies. Many farmers cannot get fertilizer at all, and those who can are paying between twice and three times last year’s price.
That means that crops actually produced will have much higher prices because of the higher price of inputs such as fertilizer, and the higher transportation costs due to higher prices for diesel and gasoline.
Like I said earlier, we’re looking at a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions, probably the worst since the black death of the 14th century.
And we’re not prepared to handle it.
It’s been raining a lot in the upper tier of the midwest for the last week. I’m a little more focused on what passes for world leaders these days.
CC
With Diesel at $5/gallon, equipment repair labor in very short supply (family ties to that problem), supply chain in disarray, the elites are getting the famine they have told us is coming.
Right now, the grocery store shelves are full, but they won’t be this time next year if this year’s harvests are not successful.
The global population at 7 billion can only feed itself with the steady continuation of the modern “green revolution” (1960s agricultural meaning) miracles of massive harvests (compared to historical norms) due to abundant fertilizer, chemical pesticides, modern seeds, cheap diesel, cheap ocean shipping to move it all around etc.
Take them away, and mass starvation comes like night follows day. Then mass migration of desperate people.
Suggested Reading
https://www.unz.com/mhudson/the-ongoing-economic-war/
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/russia-rewrites-the-art-of-hybrid-war/
https://dailyreckoning.com/we-are-on-the-precipice/
There is no chance the illegitimate clique in the White House allow this to end before the midterms. Regime change in Russia is the long term goal. Short term, the regime is pinning all the blame for the domestic catastrophe in the US on Putin. If our regime allows a negotiated settlement, who gets the blame for destroying America? Unless the regime can weaponize monkey pox against us, the Putin blame game is the only election strategy the Dems have. Of course, the GOP neocons are doing everything possible to bail Biden, Inc. out on this Ukraine cluster and the coming election.
It’s a total cluster fark, that is for sure.
Idiocracy.
I’m convinced that this is all purposed.
The Deep State wants a die-off.
See now, this isn’t how I would do it. When you actively kill people, you’re the bad guy.
How I would do it is to greatly restrict, by using bioweapon-style vectors, the chances of conception of new humans.
Incompetency at work?
Or malevolence?
It’s a total cluster fark, that is for sure.
...and attempting to blame a fake President isn’t going to pass, so IMHO the real blame will end up being spread far and wide and still won’t resolve the famine if things should go that far. A perfect storm one could say.
So, hope remains it won’t be quite as bad as the grim forecast.
I think the malevolent use the incompetents as tools. This is how a senile Joe Biden is installed as POTUS, for example.
This way, they get to burn down the building while escaping the direct blame.
I hope so too, but hope is not a plan.
Can you say crop insurance and government subsidies?
The feds control the food.
Malevolence.
c.f. Georgia Guidestones.
(Which we should go see? urinate on? before we die)
(Contact me and let’s set a date)
Meanwhile fields set fallow all over the state of Ohio.
I would have to say this is by design.
Wow, I'll bet this has never happened before in the whole wide world... We're DOOMED, doomed I tell you....
I agree. The baby formula fiasco was just an early indicator.
The global population at 7 billion can only feed itself with the steady continuation of the modern “green revolution” (1960s agricultural meaning) miracles of massive harvests (compared to historical norms) due to abundant fertilizer, chemical pesticides, modern seeds, cheap diesel, cheap ocean shipping to move it all around etc.
Take them away, and mass starvation comes like night follows day. Then mass migration of desperate people.
—
2,000 years ago, the stability of a Roman emperor’s reign often hinged on the grain harvest. Interesting how things remain the same.
Reading most of the comments of Freepers about farming is something akin to reading comments of 10 year old boys about sex.
“equipment repair labor in very short supply”
There’s a local company that’s a big provider to the turf/irrigation industry here. Stihl, Toro, Echo, etc. I like them and do business there (I’m just a homeowner, but I like good equipment.) The sales/service desk lady told me they were slammed service-wise because of supply-chain issues with new equipment. Now, the companies that use their service side are bringing in old, unused equipment to be repaired and brought up to snuff. The lady says they’ve had more engine rebuilds than she’s ever seen.
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