Posted on 03/20/2022 5:15:23 AM PDT by Browns Ultra Fan
The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is rapidly approaching inversion at 20.5 bps (where the 10-year yield is lower than the 2-year yield). But the 10Y-3M curve is generally steepening at 173.33 bps.
Of course, the driving force behind the flattening of the 10Y-2Y curve is the rapidly rising 2-year Treasury yield (orange line). The last time the 10Y-2Y curve inverted was in 2019, prior to the COVID outbreak in early 2020.
The Wu Xia United States Federal Reserve Funds Shadow Rate has finally climbed back into positive territory.
At last look, The Federal Reserve is forecast to raise their target rate 7 times over the coming year. And with the increasing forecast of rate hikes, we are seeing the cryptocurrency Bitcoin fall from near $70,000 to $41,817.
President Biden announced that he will be issuing an executive order to combat rising energy prices (the rising energy prices that he caused in the first place with … executive orders. Let’s see what happens next.
Hello t-r-o-u-b-l-e.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
President Biden announced that he will be issuing an executive order to combat rising energy prices (the rising energy prices that he caused in the first place with … executive orders. Let’s see what happens next.
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If Biden is stupid enough to try and fix prices, and he is, we’re Tara Reade screwed.
The giverment caused inflation and they make us suffer (pay for it)
Redistribution of watered down capital or as they derisively refer to it, wealth.
Worked so well when Nixon (an 'honorary' 'Rat Party member) implemented them in '71.
Hello, gas lines!
This is all so stupid. Ants dig more tunnels when space is at a premium. Grasshoppers band together to improve their state. Buffalo circle and protect their young and frail. We play with numbers, destroying the wealth of individuals and nations. Bean counters and shysters and autocrats have been and will be our downfall and we think we do something great.
(The Federal Reserve is forecast to raise their target rate 7 times over the coming year)
What could possibly go wrong? 🥴🤔🙄
I watch bitcoin really close, the relationship to bitcoin price to the rest of the markets is indirect, ultimately it is supply vs. demand and it is very volatile because so many people are parked on it and not a lot of it is rolling over.
That being said, it isn’t down that much, not seeing a large movement.
Call me when it moves 30% vs. the 1% that it has changed, it is actually up for the most part lately.
BTC is up from its recent low of around $32K, but for some reason the article doesn’t mention that.
“And with the increasing forecast of rate hikes, we are seeing the cryptocurrency Bitcoin fall from near $70,000 to $41,817.”
Not much inference to be drawn, here, I don’t think. These factors exist in separate domains (interest rates and crypto). I think people have been playing grabass with interest rates for many years; but I think crypto has a giddiness all its own, and is seeking its proper level in the natural course of limited resource vs unlimited demand.
later
The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is rapidly approaching inversion at 20.5 bps (where the 10-year yield is lower than the 2-year yield).....
What I don’t see mentioned....in the article, or in replies, is that historically, every time this inversion happens....recession follows about 6 - 24 mos later.
More on this, here....
...The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following between six and 24 months later, according to a 2018 report by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. It offered a false signal just once in that time (recession caused by PlanDemIc/2020)....Traders typically watch the shape of the curve determined by comparing two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, because a yield curve inversion on that spread has anticipated previous recessions....
Sounds like a recession in a year.
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