Posted on 03/05/2022 12:14:32 PM PST by blam
Ukraine is considered the “breadbasket of Europe,” and the Russian invasion is choking off grain exports, sending global food prices to record highs.
Grain prices surged to record highs last week as world food prices are now higher than they were during the 2011 Arab Spring, leaving us with an abundance of caution that political uprisings due to food price shocks could be right around the corner.
On Friday, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index (FFPI), a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, reported record-high prices for February. Prices are, in fact, 3.1% higher than they were in February 2011 when anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions sprung up around the Arab world.
The risk of an uprising happening again is rising. Everyone’s favorite permabear, SocGen’s Albert Edwards, opined two years ago about future agricultural price shocks and how they could cause another Arab Spring.
We want to determine which countries are most vulnerable to food price shocks and shortages because of the Ukrainian crisis. Bloomberg data shows the most reliant countries on Ukraine wheat, including Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Turkey.
While there are no indications that any of these countries are on the brink of social unrest, keep a close eye on them as food prices soar and spring in the northern hemisphere is two weeks away.
Countries back off covid restrictions, just in time for summer food riots. Read through a Twitter exchange earlier between four Italians trying to figure out how to get their hands on Arizona durum wheat if they can’t have Ukranian. Had no idea a) Arizona grows wheat, and b) must be pretty decent if the Italians are trying to source it.
There needs to be a free flow of fuel, fertilizer, and food.
That includes cases where Russia is involved.
That includes cases where Ukraine is involved.
It can be called a prosperity pact.
The issues are intertwined, but I believe the larger problem is lack of fertilizer rather than lack of grain. Russia produces a lot of fertilizer.
Presumably Biden has throttled back any US wheat production...
Great. Odumbo and Jarrett will be gloating about Arab Spring II.
“The issues are intertwined, but I believe the larger problem is lack of fertilizer rather than lack of grain. Russia produces a lot of fertilizer.”
It’s both. Russia and Ukraine are large grain exporters (Number one and number five, I think) as well as primary sources for fertilizer and potash. Africa requires the fertilizer as, without it, yields will drop by a factor of five. We’re looking at food riots throughout the middle east, which are the big grain markets for the two waring nations. Next will be a huge reduction in crop yields in Africa. People might think that starvation won’t affect the US except we can expect everyone who can get on a ship will come to Mexico and find their way across the US southern border. I really wish we had a competent president to handle this crisis. But, if we had a competent president there wouldn’t BE a crisis...now would there.
One can safely say that the world hasn’t seen even the
beginnings of the shocks generated by Putin’s actions.
The Wheat is too high?
Biden’s doing nothing...he’s the puppet
75% Of The Planets Fertilizer Will Not Be Shipped.[10 minute VIDEO And TRANSCRIPT]
Russia “Recommends” Fertilizer Makers To Halt All Exports ("Food Prices To Double, Triple")
The reverberations of this foolish action will circle the
globe, it may collapse the Russian AND Chinese economy,
even our own. Tens of millions will starve, suffer and die who had no part in this terrible mistake.
Putin and those who supported his decision will bear the
responsibility along with those who could have acted
forcefully to prevent it, yes Joe, I mean YOU.
Went to store this morning - loaf of Italian bread last week 1.79, now 2.29 Box of pasta last ween .84, now 1.19
FJB
We are so close to WWIII. All it will take is one misunderstanding or one mis-step.
I absolutely hate what Putin is doing, but if the sanctions work to crush the Russian economy, it will only brings us much closer to WWIII. If it pushes Russian to near collapse, it is less likely to cause Russian oligarchs to topple Putin than it is to cause them to circle the wagons and lash out in desperation.
On the one hand, I don’t think total war around among super powers is possible in the nuclear era, but we could see a large escalation of nations all seeking to make war to exploit the climate and if that happens, super powers are going to have to choose sides.
This would be terrifying if I was not a Christian and ready to go home to Christ any time he wants to call me back.
I see nuclear terrorism in 12-18 months. Russia might get materials from Ukrainian sources, put a couple (10 - 20) 25KT - 100KT range and hand them off to various groups. Radical Islam, Chinese (if they felt stabbed in the back), NK ….
Might be in for some interesting times to lose a city a month for a year or two.
Just a thought.
Refugees from Russia and Ukraine are already showing up at the Mexican/US border.
Putin’s actions would be of little consequence if the stage have not already been set by the globalists with Covid and supply chain issues.
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