Yes, the deaths for July 4 were very low. And we are slowly drifting down in the death rate and have been for 10 weeks or so. The correlation with the so called, now calculated, infection rate is approximately zero.
But don’t take the 254 deaths on July 4th to the bank quite yet. Right now we are running at about 520 deaths per day on average and one really good day will lower that for a bit. And we are down from a 2000 per day peak. We are winning.
But look at the plots and you will see a 7 day pattern that repeats. It goes something like this: LLHHHHH with 2 low days every Saturday and Sunday and higher the rest of the week.
So you can expect the deaths today, July 5, to also be low but will jump back closer to 500 or more on the report for Monday July 6.
My guess is that this is just the result of under reporting or not reporting deaths on weekends and making it up when hospital personnel go back to work on Monday.
I look at the same website, and when I post their results I mark the 7 day moving average. It will keep out the Sat-Sun light reporting and if they are heavy from the weekend that effect will also be averaged out. I am not sure about 3 day weekend, but it the Covid has a 7-14 day delay, we should be showing an increase in fatality rates from back around jun 13 when the cases started rising.
DK