Posted on 05/28/2020 11:22:11 AM PDT by wrrock
A couple of major signals suggest market selloff soon.
As of past couple of days, T-Bond Futures are not correlating with the current rise in the stock market; this has historically meant a selloff eminent.
Second, volume analysis suggests the very upper limit of this rally is when the S&P hits 3069 for this week. So, the selloff could come today (5/28/2020) if S&P hits 3069.
(Excerpt) Read more at toptradeguru.com ...
If technical analysis was so easy and accurate we’d have all retired rich already . . .
Technical analysis seems to work best when calling for upside breakouts, not market tops. If you want to time a market top you’re better off following the Sentiment index. Bullish vs Bearish among the public and the professionals.
What the very best stock model can never do is factor in a black swan event like this corona crisis craziness.
Yup. I would love to see where these bears will put their money long term. There's nowhere to put it.
The short termers will pull their money out of the market on Friday, and they'll buy back in on Monday.
Not true. The markets were actually slow to react to covid-19.
“ So long-term there is really nowhere to go except the stock market.
You are largely correct, if you limit the decision to a rational analysis based on rates of return...
This morning I saw that financial services stocks were up 10% in the past week.
10% on anything in a week is pretty significant.
Compare this to the drop in mortgage apps, and the increase in unemployment. There is a disconnect somewhere.
Finally, the April shipping numbers out of the Pacific ports were down 21% YOY. Empty containers coming into Long Beach are up 164%. That is troubling.
The world might be opening on TV. But in the real world the “machine” is in need of some lube.
Eminent? That's great. Now if it were imminent, then I'd worry.
I hope - the market isn’t making any sense.
Apple is at its all time high!
When the slightest amount of electronic industry comes back, silver will be squeezed.
How astute. Did that observation get pulled from a Wheaties box? Throughout this whole manufactured crisis the market has fluctuated regularly, yet since March 23rd the losses are less and each rebound is higher. It hardly behoves anyone to be told this sort of thing from one day to the next, stating the obvious.
Yes it will sell off but then it will spring back ever higher.
It is a 10 stocks, and they make up 24% of the value. Are you thinking of the S&P 100?
I think otherwise. People have money and not many places to put it, so that’ll inflate the stock market.
“Got the Powerball numbers for this weekend?”
I had them last weekend but it seems they changed them at the last second.
-bkmk-
[Finally, the April shipping numbers out of the Pacific ports were down 21% YOY. Empty containers coming into Long Beach are up 164%. That is troubling.]
“ What the very best stock model can never do is factor in a black swan event like this corona crisis craziness.”
I call this a ”black bat” event.
One chart puts mega tech’s trillions of market value into eye-popping perspective
-PJ
Lost in the pandemic frenzy is that the stock market has been manipulated up and down by the big guys on Wall Street.
There is no logical reason for these huge swings, other than massive corrupt actions to make huge profits.
If things are going badly, then the market should move steadily downward.
If things are improving, the market should trend upward.
But what’s happening in the market is nothing like that.
With automatic buys and sells and leaked rumors the Wall Streeters are making huge profits on daily buys and sells.
It’s orange juice futures.
People should be going to jail for what’s happening, but the media morons are wrapped up in Trump’s mask or not.
That chart leaves out the middle 213 companies, and compares the 5 largest to the 282 smallest.
However, if you look at the overall weightings in the S&P 500, you will find:
Microsoft: 5.50%
Apple: 5.27%
Amazon: 3.98%
Facebook: 2.18%
Alphabet Class A: 1.69%
Alphabet Class C: 1.68%
So these 5 companies make up 20.3% of the S&P 500. as do the bottom 282 companies. The middle 213 must, therefore, make up about 60% of the index.
Full S&P weighting can be found on many web sites.
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