Posted on 04/16/2020 9:45:55 AM PDT by amorphous
Today, I’m going to try to show you how and why we know that in the case of a pandemic like the one we’re in, surrounded by doubts and uncertainties, there are still a series of measures that we can and, more importantly, must take. But also, how these measures are hardly ever taken, and if they are, not in the correct fashion. This has to date led us into a ton of preventable misery and death. If only we would listen. And there’s still more we can do to prevent more mayhem, there is at every step of the process.
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I’ve been reading up on this for a while, adding -much- more stuff as I went along (this will be a long essay), and at some point realized that the coronavirus is an issue you can’t leave to epidemiologists and virologists, because there are far too many unknowns for them to create a working model, and without such a model they are lost. These fine people are not good at 10-dimensional chess, even if they like you to think otherwise.
These people are useful for the knowledge they possess of past epidemics, not for predicting what will happen in the next one, certainly not if it’s caused by a virus which they -and we- simply don’t know enough about to build a reliable model. In that case, you need to step back and apply more basic principles. Lucky for us, those exist.
(Excerpt) Read more at theautomaticearth.com ...
That’s all well and good, if you have received honest information from the very beginning. That wasn’t the case here. Perhaps the next pandemic (though it will most likely start in China yet again), but way too late for this one for sure. If it does start in China again then the same results are highly likely.
Anyone have info on how Ft Detrick Fauci/ Strock/ China/ Iran are connected ???
Check out George Webb’s twitter.
A person I respect very much, respects Taleb very much. That’s all I need to know.
I remember when he was just Nick Taleb, before he decided he needed more cultural cachet.
An interesting guy, though, and he has as much chance of being right about things as the next person does.
Taleb is a really smart guy. And he is great with statistics. He can really crunch the numbers and he can spot the BS.
He dislikes Paul Krugman, and he dislikes WHO. Apparently, he also dislikes President Trump which surprises and disappoints me. But on the whole, Taleb is worth listening to.
Read the text where he talks about Trump in a conference in India -- it's in my vanity of late 2019:
Nassim Taleb and Skin in the Game: Rules of Honor that Build Civilizations
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