1)The error margins on minority poll samples are usually very high (as much as +/-15%)
2) The number is on its face not believable because it would suddenly reverse a 50-60 year trend of high African American Dem voting patterns. One would have to go back to the 1940s to find such high numbers (>40%) for Republican presidential candidates.
3) There is no widespread evidence of a groundswell of AA support for Trump, prominent AA celebrities notwithstanding. The average AA voter still loathes Trump.
4) I believe the best case scenario for Trump is 15% AA vote, the best for an R candidate since 1976.
5)A more realistic scenario is something like 8-10% AA vote, a slight improvement over 2016, but with a big decline in AA turnout for Dems. 42% is just nonsense.
I do not think we will see 20% black vote for Trump.
But black citizens are waking up that Democrats only pay them lip service and deliver very little substance.
Democrat talk about illegals and transgendered does not sit well with black citizens.
I can see Trump getting 15% or a large number of black citizens staying home on election day.
I agree with you and the AA % numbers going back to 2004 are easy to remember:
2004: 12%
2008: 4%
2012: 6%
2016: 8%
Exceeding 12% would be a win.
I agree that 42% is unrealistic, but the fact that a poll showed this high of a number, even if it’s an outlier, shows some movement. Trump got 8 percent of the black vote in 2016, but I think he will do better in 2020, maybe 10 to 12 percent, which would help quite a bit, considering how close some of the states are.
I believe the approval number. I don’t believe that approval equals a vote. I think PT’s vote numbers will dazzle.