Posted on 10/25/2018 11:39:29 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
John James' campaign for US Senate in Michighan has caught fire at just the right time.
He needs our help.
Last month John James was “just another” Republican running against an incumbent Democrat who was on his way to be road kill.
James was down 23 points to Democrat Debbie Stabenow with no hope of catching her.
Nevertheless, a new EPIC-MRA poll from Michigan shows that for the first time since July Stabenow is below 50% support.
In fact, over the last four weeks, Stabenow has dropped 7 points and James has picked up 9 points which is something the EPIC-MRA survey statement called “a remarkable charge that might indicate momentum shifting to the challenger as voters get fully engaged.”
Moreover, Democrats in Michigan have lost ground across the board.
The Republican Gubernatorial candidate who has been written off as hopeless for most of this cycle is now down 5 after trailing badly for months.
The race for Attorney General is being called "a tie" which in pollster-speak means the Democrat is down anywhere from 1 to 3 points.
Ten days ago I predicted John James would win.
Here’s what I wrote then and stand by today.
Debbie Stabenow will lose; and here's why she will.
DO NOT BE GASLIGHTED BY FAKED POLL FROM MICHIGAN.
The first thing that must be acknowledged in considering who will win a 2018 mid-term election is that the real Republican candidate in each race is Donald Trump.
The power of the avalanche of accomplishments Trump brings to the campaign trail will be more than many Democrats, whether incumbents or challengers, will be able to fight off.
Stabenow’s Republican challenger is John James who is married, the father of two boys a West graduate and combat chopper pilot.
James who is Black, is an accomplished businessman and is 100% Pro- life.
He is a very conservative man who will support Trump’s agenda 100%.
He is a man Michigan’s African Americans can look up to and support.
Michigan has been rolling to the right for ten years.
In 2008 Barrack Obama won Michigan by 16 points; in 2012 he won by 10 points.
In 2016 Donald Trump won Michigan by 10,700 votes.
By “staying home” 50,000 predominately African American voters (14%) from the Detroit tri-county area helped deliver Michigan to Trump.
This phenomena was directly responsible for Trump’s victory in Michigan.
Moreover, it can be argued that Blacks “staying home” was a strong factor in Trump’s victories in Wisconsin (7% Black), Pennsylvania (12% Black), and in Florida, (17% Black) all of which Trump won by 1.2% or less.
In 2016, to finally win Michigan, Trump had to capture 12 pivot counties.
Pivot counties are counties won twice by Barrack Obama but then won by Trump.
In 2008 Obama’s average win in Michigan’s 12 pivot counties was 11.9% in 2012 it was down to 4.9%.
In 2016 Trump won these counties by 12.8% for a 17.8% swing.
The 2016 exit polls from Michigan show good news for James.
Those aged 65 and over, who were 19% of the electorate, voted 51/47 for Trump.
Those aged 45 to 64, who were 39% of the electorate, voted 53/44 for Trump.
Those aged 30 to 44, who were 21% of the electorate, voted 48/44 for Trump.
Those aged 18 to 29, who were 21% of the electorate, voted 57/34 for Hillary Clinton.
A June poll from the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic magazine, reported that just 28% of young adults 18 to 29 said they were absolutely certain to vote; but 74% of seniors who voted for Trump were absolutely certain to vote.
Then there is Stabenow’s problem with Michigan’s Evangelicals and Catholics.
Both groups believed Trump’s promise to appoint conservative constitution supporting judges to the Supreme Court who would protect religious liberties and be pro-life.
Trump fulfilled that promise.
Both groups are well satisfied with Trump’s appointment of Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
Both groups are furious with the Democrats for their savage attacks and physical threats against Judge Kavanaugh, his wife and young daughters.
Both groups voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again.
Michigan’s Evangelicals voted 81/14 for Trump and they were 27% of the electorate.
Note: Evangelicals make up 25% of Michigan’s population so they over performed their percentage of the population by 2 points which is very significant.
Michigan’s population is 23% Catholic.
In reporting the results of the exit polls, the pollsters probably folded Catholics in with Evangelicals and created a category called, “Christians attending church services weekly.”
Weekly Church attending people, who were 34% of the electorate, vote 57/39 for Trump.
These factors will present a major obstacle for Stabenow because her party tried to destroy Brett Kavanaugh.
As a Democrat, Senator Debbie Stabenow has a problem with independent voters.
CNN released the findings of its survey of independent voters and found by 64/36 they disapprove of the Democrats’ handling of Judge Kavanaugh.
Michigan’s registered voters include 29% independents who voted 52/36 for Trump.
This data point alone shuts the door on Stabenow.
Michigan is 14% African American.
At 35% (Rasmussen) African American support for Trump is at its highest point and has grown from 23% since this time last year.
A survey of the Maryland governor’s race shows the state’s White Republican incumbent is winning big because he is getting 21% of the African American vote.
This makes the point that Black approval of Trump is transferring to Republican candidates, even when they are running against African American Democrats.
With an African American to vote for many of Michigan’s African Americans will take the next step toward fully supporting Republicans.
Ask Kanye West about this.
Thank you for posting this. John James is going to take a huge amount of Black votes and win the race.
I am not a veteran, but thank you for posting this. I sent James some support $$$ yesterday
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3699319/posts.
He is a candidate very worthy of financial support!
Poll: GOP challenger cuts Stabenow’s lead to single digits in Michigan
Uh oh. The DNC better hurry and send another fake bomb to Stabenow to try and save her campaign!
thanks..just gave a bit
How far was Trump behind in the MI polls prior to the election? The amount of error then will probably be similar now.
Excellent! Thanks, Bonemaker.
Done.
I just donated again this week! Come on Freepers, we can do this and put John in the seat and Stabenow on unemployment.
James is still young, and if he wins has the potential to become a real star in the GOP. He seems charismatic and has legit military and business cred. This is the type of candidate we need to be building the party around. 2 or 3 Senate terms would put him at the perfect age for a POTUS or VP run. We need a stable of charismatic conservatives so we don’t end up with a bunch of unlikable Ted’s, Jeb’s, Marco’s etc in the primary.
Dems are getting desperate in Indiana. The Dem Org ads have gotten outright hysterical.
Radio ad by a “ non-partisan political organization” last night began with “ The only thing worse than Braun being a LIAR, is being a liar AND a hypocrite!”
Tks...I feel strongly about this one.
A comrade in arms vs a communist hag? No brainer brother!
Needs a visit from the POTUS.
“Needs a visit from the POTUS.” VP Pence will be rallying with him on Monday.
Here is a snippet of the floor speech:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4589219/debbie-stabenow-dangerously-incompetent
John James is an incredible candidate. A man of great courage, a patriot and miles away from a career politician . He’s exactly the type of man Trump has attracted to run for office.
He would be incredible in the Senate !
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