Kavanaugh and Probabilities

Market Ticker ^ | 09/17/2018 | Karl Denninger

[rb22982]

Ah, so now we have it...

Ford, a 51-year-old registered Democrat who has published in academic journals and has trained students in clinical psychology, described the alleged incident in The Washington Post on Sunday, saying it occurred during a summer day in the 1980s at a Maryland house where teens had gathered. Ford claimed she headed upstairs to a bathroom when she was suddenly pushed onto a bed, as rock-and-roll music blared. However, Ford told The Post she did not recall exactly who owned the house, how she came to be at the house, or how the gathering was arranged. She remembered only that the house was in Montgomery County, near a country club, and that parents were not present.

So she doesn't know who's house it was, why she was there, what the "gathering" was about (gee, I wonder.) Now let's deal with FeinSwine first. If, and I stress if, this accusation is truthful Feinswine should be drawn and quartered for sitting on it for two months. In fact such is misprision of a felony, a crime itself, and for that the prime bitch employing alleged Chinese spies should go to prison -- right now.

But back to the claimed accusation.
There are several possibilities:

1. She was assaulted, and by Kavanaugh. In other words, her account is accurate.
2. She was not assaulted; the "playing around" was sexual, was consensual at some point, she stopped consenting and so did the sexual escapades while her clothes were still on. But now, being a hard-left "professor", an avowed activist who has attempted to conceal that fact by sanitizing her social media (gee, why, if it's not material?) she suddenly changes her mind about kissing a boy and playing "grinder" with him 35 years later.
3. She was assaulted but it was not Kavanaugh and 35 years later he's convenient to attack because she hates him and his political stance; 35 years prior he was perhaps somewhere within 10 or 20 miles at the time and he can't prove otherwise.
4. There was a party, she was (perhaps) drinking, others were (probably) drinking, everyone had fun and went home, but she was bent about words exchanged or being jilted and turned it into "assaulted" over the space of 35 years. Think that doesn't happen? Yes it does, and it sometimes doesn't take 35 years either; who remembers the Duke LaCrosse team accused by a stripper of gang-rape that, by all evidence, never happened at all? Or shall we discuss Tawana Brawley?

Note that none of those means you fail a polygraph, by the way -- especially if you have months to study for it and practice -- and are trained in psychological responses. Nor do we have the questions and the raw data. So the value of said "event" (the polygraph) is zero. The best polygraphs are not infallible -- and when taken by the interested party with a hand-picked examiner and questions are in fact worthless.

The other person accused of being there denies that anything of that sort ever happened at all. In other words, not 1 or 2. Either 3, 4, or it was made up entirely.

Now add into the mix this: The alleged "victim" has more animus and thus reason to lie as a consequence of her political orientation and advocacy than did the Duke LaCrosse stripper. That may have simply been a matter of not getting a "respectful enough" tip for her dancing gig.

Finally, it appears she told nobody at the time -- not even her best (female) friend. How many women tell nobody about an incomplete assault like this -- or any other incident when they have a bad time at a party? None. Ever. Unless they have no friends. But I'll assume she did, and like every other young woman of that time and the current time, told her bestie(s) everything. Especially something like this. If it happened, that is.

Sexual assault is serious whether incomplete and attempted or completed sexual assault. But there's no evidence to back up this claim, there's no pattern of behavior, there are dozens of women who have known Kavanaugh since High School and have said nothing of that sort was ever perpetrated by him to their knowledge or with or against them and the accuser lacks any ability to provide any sort of evidence at all nor can she even tell anyone why she was at the alleged location, how it was organized, it's purpose or what she was doing before and during the event in question despite wearing a one-piece bathing suit under street clothes -- and she claims he allegedly tried to remove the suit first (what?)

Oh, and both the accuser and Feinswine are known to want to derail Kavanaugh by any means possible -- Feinswine has specifically so-stated, yet she sat on the very thing that could have done so for two months. This implies that she knows the claim is false because otherwise she would have been best served in her interests, which she has publicly stated, by immediately both releasing it and forcing an investigation -- in July.

I call bs and believe Feinswine sat on this allegation for two months because she did investigate it, knows it's a lie and also knows that if she played the card in July she would have gotten caught and not only would Kavanaugh be confirmed the consequences would be potentially fatal to the Demoncrat party.

[az_gila]

Hit job collusion:

DiFi
Ford
Ford lawyer

---

You missed one...:^)

DiFi
Ford
Ford lawyer
Washington Post

[CharlesWayneCT]

THat’s the worst part of this accusation. I was reading NR and David French said that this could get cleared up if the other people who were “at the party” come forward.

But how can any of the other people at the party “come forward”, especially to say none of this happened? We don’t know when the party was, or where the party was, or who was at the party.

So are we going to collect the statements from every person who remembers attending any party over the space of two years where any one of these people were present, and then ask them if they remember seeing all three?

And since the story is “this happened in private, and I then slipped out without anybody seeing me”, even if we did find people who vaguely remembered some party from 35 years ago, how are they going to say “yes, I am certain the three of them never disappeared at the same time, and I am certain I saw the woman leave through the front door?”

[NorthMountain]

5) She’s fabricating the whole thing.

[VTenigma]

I didn’t say that was the only inconsistency, just one more jack straw.

[Thank You Rush]

“”In fact such is misprision of a felony, a crime itself, and for that the prime bitch employing alleged Chinese spies should go to prison — right now.””

She doesn’t even get to pass GO and collect $200? Well, that’s fine with me.

She isn’t worried about a thing and never gave a thought to how she was going to play this hand as no matter what she did, it would be overlooked and nothing would stick to her. That’s why and how they do these things. Not one single concern about landing themselves in trouble.

[Thank You Rush]

Maybe she wanted to take a bath.....

You make good points....

[Col Frank Slade]

Drag all their asses in ..

WHAT A SHIT SHOW

[Thank You Rush]

They could find people who could say all of that. The dems would whether true or not. It’s time to start playing ball with their rules and find witnesses who could have been on the moon at the time. Who cares? Under oath? Why not? It doesn’t have any meaning anymore...

[knarf]

That's what I get for trying to look smart in the face of legaleze.

Thanx, KevinB