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Kavanaugh and Probabilities
Market Ticker ^ | 09/17/2018 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 09/17/2018 5:26:24 AM PDT by rb22982

Ah, so now we have it...

Ford, a 51-year-old registered Democrat who has published in academic journals and has trained students in clinical psychology, described the alleged incident in The Washington Post on Sunday, saying it occurred during a summer day in the 1980s at a Maryland house where teens had gathered. Ford claimed she headed upstairs to a bathroom when she was suddenly pushed onto a bed, as rock-and-roll music blared. However, Ford told The Post she did not recall exactly who owned the house, how she came to be at the house, or how the gathering was arranged. She remembered only that the house was in Montgomery County, near a country club, and that parents were not present.

So she doesn't know who's house it was, why she was there, what the "gathering" was about (gee, I wonder.) Now let's deal with FeinSwine first. If, and I stress if, this accusation is truthful Feinswine should be drawn and quartered for sitting on it for two months. In fact such is misprision of a felony, a crime itself, and for that the prime bitch employing alleged Chinese spies should go to prison -- right now.

But back to the claimed accusation.
There are several possibilities:

1. She was assaulted, and by Kavanaugh. In other words, her account is accurate.
2. She was not assaulted; the "playing around" was sexual, was consensual at some point, she stopped consenting and so did the sexual escapades while her clothes were still on. But now, being a hard-left "professor", an avowed activist who has attempted to conceal that fact by sanitizing her social media (gee, why, if it's not material?) she suddenly changes her mind about kissing a boy and playing "grinder" with him 35 years later.
3. She was assaulted but it was not Kavanaugh and 35 years later he's convenient to attack because she hates him and his political stance; 35 years prior he was perhaps somewhere within 10 or 20 miles at the time and he can't prove otherwise.
4. There was a party, she was (perhaps) drinking, others were (probably) drinking, everyone had fun and went home, but she was bent about words exchanged or being jilted and turned it into "assaulted" over the space of 35 years. Think that doesn't happen? Yes it does, and it sometimes doesn't take 35 years either; who remembers the Duke LaCrosse team accused by a stripper of gang-rape that, by all evidence, never happened at all? Or shall we discuss Tawana Brawley?

Note that none of those means you fail a polygraph, by the way -- especially if you have months to study for it and practice -- and are trained in psychological responses. Nor do we have the questions and the raw data. So the value of said "event" (the polygraph) is zero. The best polygraphs are not infallible -- and when taken by the interested party with a hand-picked examiner and questions are in fact worthless.

The other person accused of being there denies that anything of that sort ever happened at all. In other words, not 1 or 2. Either 3, 4, or it was made up entirely.

Now add into the mix this: The alleged "victim" has more animus and thus reason to lie as a consequence of her political orientation and advocacy than did the Duke LaCrosse stripper. That may have simply been a matter of not getting a "respectful enough" tip for her dancing gig.

Finally, it appears she told nobody at the time -- not even her best (female) friend. How many women tell nobody about an incomplete assault like this -- or any other incident when they have a bad time at a party? None. Ever. Unless they have no friends. But I'll assume she did, and like every other young woman of that time and the current time, told her bestie(s) everything. Especially something like this. If it happened, that is.

Sexual assault is serious whether incomplete and attempted or completed sexual assault. But there's no evidence to back up this claim, there's no pattern of behavior, there are dozens of women who have known Kavanaugh since High School and have said nothing of that sort was ever perpetrated by him to their knowledge or with or against them and the accuser lacks any ability to provide any sort of evidence at all nor can she even tell anyone why she was at the alleged location, how it was organized, it's purpose or what she was doing before and during the event in question despite wearing a one-piece bathing suit under street clothes -- and she claims he allegedly tried to remove the suit first (what?)

Oh, and both the accuser and Feinswine are known to want to derail Kavanaugh by any means possible -- Feinswine has specifically so-stated, yet she sat on the very thing that could have done so for two months. This implies that she knows the claim is false because otherwise she would have been best served in her interests, which she has publicly stated, by immediately both releasing it and forcing an investigation -- in July.

I call bs and believe Feinswine sat on this allegation for two months because she did investigate it, knows it's a lie and also knows that if she played the card in July she would have gotten caught and not only would Kavanaugh be confirmed the consequences would be potentially fatal to the Demoncrat party.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: christineford; kavanaugh; p4hr; p4sr; phr; psr; supremecourt; ussc
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Karl nails this one, IMO.
1 posted on 09/17/2018 5:26:24 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: rb22982
as rock-and-roll music blared

What band? Which song? It is a well known fact that 80's music has caused everything from Global Warming to the heartbreak of psoriasis.

2 posted on 09/17/2018 5:29:19 AM PDT by rjsimmon (The Tree of Liberty Thirsts)
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To: rb22982

Excellent!


3 posted on 09/17/2018 5:30:30 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: rb22982
In practical terms, how do you remove a one-piece swimming suit UNDER clothes worn OVER the one-piece swimming suit? If Kavanaugh could do THAT, he's a frickin' swordsmith genius and would be a big-man-on-campus!

In the best Hillary voice: "Was it a horny little freshman girl or a junior boy out for a good time that evening?!?! What difference, at this point, does it make???"

For LibDems that believe in pure democracy, it seems a vote was take: 2 of the 3 in the room said it never happened.

4 posted on 09/17/2018 5:31:57 AM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.......)
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To: rb22982
I call bs and believe Feinswine sat on this allegation for two months because she did investigate it, knows it's a lie and also knows that if she played the card in July she would have gotten caught and not only would Kavanaugh be confirmed the consequences would be potentially fatal to the Demoncrat party.

Yep, and if the GOP doesn't confirm him this Thursday I will be apoplectic.

5 posted on 09/17/2018 5:32:54 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: rb22982

She remembers ONE particular of that day, Kavanaugh, but, alas NONE of the other particulars, such as WHERE and whom else was present, which might substantiate (or disprove) the charge.


6 posted on 09/17/2018 5:34:51 AM PDT by TalBlack (It's hard to shoot people when they are shooting back at you...)
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To: 1Old Pro

I think the planned first voe was this week, not by the full Senate yet.


7 posted on 09/17/2018 5:35:02 AM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: rb22982

Kavanaugh graduated from Georgetown Prep in 1983 at age 18, so the claim is that this happened in summer 1982 or a summer before.


8 posted on 09/17/2018 5:35:52 AM PDT by jjotto (Next week, BOOM!, for sure!)
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To: rb22982

Hit job collusion:

DiFi
Ford
Ford lawyer


9 posted on 09/17/2018 5:36:30 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: rb22982

At least we know he is not gay like Roberts.


10 posted on 09/17/2018 5:39:34 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: rb22982

A wannabe Anita Hill.


11 posted on 09/17/2018 5:42:49 AM PDT by Spok ( Findings)
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To: rb22982

It’s just another blasé allegation.


12 posted on 09/17/2018 5:43:12 AM PDT by Theophilus (Repent)
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To: rb22982

Headed UPSTAIRS to the bathroom, so a house near a country club didn’t have at least a half bath on the first floor? She remembers two things about the location of the house, it was near a golf course and here is the real BS, that it was in Montgomery COUNTY. You can line up 100 fifteen year old girls and not one of them know what county they live in, let alone what county they were in at a party thirty five years ago. In fact, I bet most of them wouldn’t know what a county IS.


13 posted on 09/17/2018 5:45:49 AM PDT by Toespi
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To: rb22982
Karl nails this one, IMO.

I couldn't get past "FeinSwine." It's something a 12-year old would say and this is a serious matter for adults.

14 posted on 09/17/2018 5:49:42 AM PDT by Drew68
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: rb22982
Sam Ervin called polygraph tests "20th-century witchcraft."

Another occasion when we are hurt by Sessions not still being in the Senate. Now two anti-Trump Republicans (Flake and Corker) could kill the confirmation--I doubt any Democrat will vote in favor if there are only 49 Republicans for Kavanaugh.

If Kavanaugh survives and is confirmed, expect the media and the Democrats to try to use this to turn out the vote in November. The facts won't matter any more than they do with accusations against Trump.

16 posted on 09/17/2018 5:52:09 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: rb22982

I love specifics. Seems to me NOT recalling specifics landed Scooter in jail for lying. Or was he just guessing/not recalling specifics. Different standards still in work.


17 posted on 09/17/2018 6:00:09 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: rktman

Hoo lee crap! I just re-remembered I was born in Montgomery county MD. Does that implicate me? I mean I left there in 1947 at 3 days old but still, I may have colluded with Kavanaugh or something. You know telepathically or something. ;-)


18 posted on 09/17/2018 6:04:47 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: Toespi

Ford claimed she headed upstairs to a bathroom.


This has bothered me from jump. A house near a country club and you have to go upstairs. Doesn’t pass the smell test to me. Upscale houses have at least one bathroom on the main floor. This is a fever dream from Prof. Ford.


19 posted on 09/17/2018 6:05:00 AM PDT by VTenigma (The Democrat party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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To: Toespi

Ford claimed she headed upstairs to a bathroom.


This has bothered me from jump. A house near a country club and you have to go upstairs. Doesn’t pass the smell test to me. Upscale houses have at least one bathroom on the main floor. This is a fever dream from Prof. Ford.


20 posted on 09/17/2018 6:05:16 AM PDT by VTenigma (The Democrat party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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