Surf's up!
[The Beach Boys - Surfin' Safari]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxecATqC_IQ
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Taking care of North Korea in the near-term would be a huge economic burden on South Korea. South Koreans are willing to do it, but reunification will be a much tougher burden than reuniting West and East Germany. And apart from the ideological differences people in the North have been brainwashed with, there are huge and growing cultural differences—even the Korean language spoken in North and South is diverging more and more.
No. China likes having a buffer state between them and a prime US Asian ally.
* Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North? U.N. peacekeepers?
Not if China has anything to say about it.
* Are the South Koreans prepared?
Probably not.
* Does China stand to gain or lose?
The only thing China gains is that they will no longer have a nuclear armed rogue state on their border.
* Does Japan find a "united Korea" in their interest?
Probably not.
* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?
Russia likes having a buffer state between them and a prime US Asian ally.
China would annex it before they let that happen.................
Here are some of my opinions and concerns based on historical and geopolitical understanding:
1) If the government and heads of state in NK fall, the nation would be in chaos and would have to be organized by someone. The citizens of NK are 3 generations into brainwashed.
2) Nations like Russia, China and Iran NEED proxy states. They use them for trade and diplomacy. America, to some extent also relies on other nations but is transparent about our relationships.
3) China may not need NK today as much as times past except as a buffer from South Korea.
4) America hasn’t had the authority (implied or taken) to truly nation build since WWII. So we at best suck at it and at worst don’t have the will to do it. Kinda doing it is the worst approach (IE Afghanistan and Iraq). You either need to go all the way or let chaos find order at the hands of others.
5) The best alternative would be for SK to take over and help NK evolve. But that would be expensive and SK can’t afford it. Neither can the USA.
6.) Japan????
7.) I predict that China would get involved in the clean up and then absorb NK. It gives them the resources they used to buy and more control of the sea in their neighborhood. For China, it would be an investment that could have positive returns.
8.) The west does not have the political will to fight China politically or militarily for NK.
9.) If China takes NK, they will certainly and more fervently want Taiwan.
I predict that in our lifetimes we will see NK as part of Korea. I don’t know how many humans will die before prediction is fulfilled. But I pray Americans (and our allies) don’t have to pay too high of a price.
“* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country? “
—
mostly missile tech apparently ... Russia will sell anything to anyone for the right price hence the sale of missile tech to NOKO - the Chinese aren’t that desperate for cash or that dumb, besides they got most of theirs from the Russians anyway.
Putin will not willingly lose a cash cow, unless presented with a viable replacement.
* Does disarmament or the fall of the Kim regime automatically imply reunification with the South?
No.
* Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North?
I would hope that our presence in the South would suffice. It’s not that big a place.
* U.N. peacekeepers?
Don’t expect the Koreans to have patience with child rapists.
* Are the South Koreans prepared?
More so than we’ve ever been.
* Does China stand to gain or lose?
Gain, although I’m not sure they see it.
* Does Japan find a “united Korea” in their interest?
Japan will find the fall of the norks to be in their interests.
* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?
More like charity than commerce.
* Does historical precedent clue us in to the possibilities? Will Korean reunification go the way of say, East and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall?
If the commies are thoroughly eradicated, it might.
Perhaps we can ping someone closely involved in the area...
The only country with a stated objective of reunification is Norklandia.
I seem to recall reading within the last 12 to 15 months a poll showing approximately 73 or so per cent of South Koreans were not interested in reunification with the Norks. Those numbers most likely have changed since Moon Jae in took office. Frankly, I think Moon is colluding with the North and certainly is acting not in the South’s best interest.
The actual enemy here is China, aided and abetted by Russia.
Kim does nothing without China pulling the string. Disarmament and unification will be offered after going to the brink. The quid pro quo will be American withdrawal from the peninsula and Japan. China plays the long game and they know Trump will not be in office forever.
Like the reunification of Germany, this stands to benefit the communist blunder at the expense of the capitalist success. South Korea stands to gain nothing.
Perhaps a solution could be similar to what happened in Austria after the Four Power Occupation ended in the 50’s Independent, but neutral Austria.
I have what is a unique perspective on China and South Korea and their thoughts on N. Korea.
A little background: I traveled to China multiple times for an engineering project and over 4 years had many discussions on various topics. Later I traveled to S. Korea over a couple of years where the primary dinner topic was the N. Korea.
China: our history with China did not start at the end of their Civil War and the beginning of their Communist regime. Remember we did not support the faction (Mao) that won that war. Prior to war there was almost reverence toward the US: Boxer Rebellion, WWII, I would bet more Chinese know who Claire Chennault and Jimmy Doolittle were than US citizens. Our problems with China have been in the past 70yrs.
From a 35 yr old London School of Econ graduate:
1. What do you think of the NK young leader. “He is like that teenage relative who lives in your basement because his family threw him out, you are not very proud of him”. “The last thing China needs after the imposing of the one child policy are NK mouths coming over the border to feed”
2. What should be done with NK? From same individual “NK and SK should unify. Bigger trading in Asia”.
My travels to SK led to this response from a Sr SK Businessman: “It will be difficult for one to find support for reunification in the common man of SK. What is in it for them.”
That is two questions, not one.
Does "disarmament" automatically imply reunification with the South? If by that you mean North Korea pulling 100% back from its nuclear weapons and missile ambitions, the answer is no, it would not in and of itself imply reunification of Korea. I am not sure what else you mean by disarmament.
Does the "fall" of the Kim regime imply reunification with the South?
That is again two questions, because there are two ways the fall of the regime in North Korea could happen.
If the regime in North Korea fell, was wiped out as a force in control of anything, by a military conflict, the South would likely have no choice but to proceed with reunification, whether or not it wanted to.
But if the regime in North Korea fell by complete internal implosion of its control, the answers as to reunification all require knowing just what that implosion means inside North Korea. Not knowing the exact context leaves to many questions to give a clear answer about reunification.
"Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North?"
I take it that question means if "disarmament" or the failure of the regime in North Korea led to a reunification, what would there be of any U.S. military presence? If the context you are thinking of is something else, then you need to explain it. If it is the former, the answer would lie in what formal agreements were asked of us by the Korean government, and agreeable to us.
"U.N. peacekeepers?"
Again, the answer would differ depending exactly on the circumstances. If there was still a separate political entity in North Korea, even if it "disarmed", the two sides might agree on U.N. peacekeepers, or they might not, and even if asked the U.N., with possible vetoes from either the U.S., China or Russia might not agree to have U.N. peacekeepers there. Who can say? Who has a crystal ball?
"Are the South Koreans prepared?"
No and yes. They only have very rough plans, but they saw what it cost West Germany and they'd rather that their economy not have the burden. How much they might ask others for support will depend so much on exactly how reunification became possible, what exactly were the conditions in North Korea they had to deal with, how secure or precarious were any continuing security concerns, and many other things.
"Does China stand to gain or lose?"
Again your impartial questions leave us to again assume you are referring purely to "reunification"?
Again, the answer depends on how reunification comes about, what is the Chinese context in the events that lead to it, where does the combination of those things place the relationship between China and what is now South Korea, and - depending on the course of events, does China see the resulting situation with Korea as an armed adversary, or would reunified Korea be just a trading partner, no more and no less than South Korea is today. When none of the events by which reunification comes about have happened, it is mostly a guessing game as far as what, in the end, it will mean to China.
"Does Japan find a "united Korea" in their interest?"
Yes and no. In part yes, as Japan would hope for more trade with a reunified Korea, but that reunified Korea will, in due time, be a bigger economy than Japan. But, again, depending on how exactly reunification comes about (military conflict or implosion) and China's position in the events, it could, possibly leave, Japan and South Korea in close military alliance. China could make that more likely if again it sought, militarily, to save the regime in North Korea from falling, or if it stepped in to actually take over an imploded North Korea.
"What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?"
Again questions that defy answers when the actual context of the situation is unknown.
"Does historical precedent clue us in to the possibilities?
Not much.
"Will Korean reunification go the way of say, East and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall?"
No one has a crystal ball.
Korea was once a united nation. They’ll figure it out.