The Syrian Air Base Attack

Scott Adams' Blog ^ | April 7, 2017 | Scott Adams

[2ndDivisionVet]

As I blogged yesterday, the claim that Assad ordered a chemical attack on his own people in the past week doesn’t pass my sniff test. For Assad to order a gas attack now – while his side is finally winning – he would have to be willing to risk his life and his regime for no real military advantage. I’m not buying that.

But let’s say the world believes Assad or a rogue general under his command gassed his own people. What’s an American President to do? If Trump does nothing, he appears weak, and it invites mischief from other countries. But if he launches 59 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian military air base base within a few days, which he did, the U.S. gets several benefits at low cost:

1. President Trump just solved for the allegation that he is Putin’s puppet. He doesn’t look like Putin’s puppet today. And that was Trump’s biggest problem, which made it America’s problem too. No one wants a president who is under a cloud of suspicion about Russian influence.

2. President Trump solved (partly) for the allegation that he is incompetent. You can hate this military action, but even Trump’s critics will call it measured and rational. Like it or not, President Trump’s credibility is likely to rise because of this, if not his popularity. Successful military action does that for presidents.

3. President Trump just set the table for his conversations with China about North Korea. Does China doubt Trump will take care of the problem in China’s own backyard if they don’t take care of it themselves? That negotiation just got easier.

4. Iran might be feeling a bit more flexible when it’s time to talk about their nuclear program.

5. Trump’s plan of a Syrian Safe Zone requires dominating the Syrian Air Force for security. That just got easier.

6. After ISIS is sufficiently beaten-back, the Syrian government will need to negotiate with the remaining entities in Syria to form a lasting peace of some sort that keeps would-be refugees in place. Syria’s government just got more flexible. It probably wants to keep the rest of its military.

7. Israel is safer whenever an adversary’s air power is degraded.

On the risk side of the equation, we have the possibility of getting into war with Russia. I’d put those odds at roughly zero in this case because obviously the U.S. warned Russia about the attack. That means we knew their reaction before we attacked. And it was a measured response of the type Putin probably respects. I expect Russia to complain a lot but continue to partner with the U.S. against ISIS.

If it turns out that the sarin gas attack that sparked this military action didn’t come from Assad, it doesn’t much matter. President Trump will bank all of the benefits above even if the attack turns out to be a hoax. We know Assad had some chemical weapons at one point, and probably used them. No one will be crying for Assad if the attack was unnecessary. And realistically, the public will never be 100% sure who was behind the attack.

I doubt this is the first step in a larger plan for war to depose Assad. But if Assad thinks it might be, we have a stronger position over there.

I’m not pro-war, so this military action alarms me the same way it alarms most people. But objectively speaking, the risk-reward ratio for this attack on Syria’s air field was exceptionally good. You rarely see so many benefits arise from one limited military action.

I thought President Trump would hold off on military action in the service of regime change. That still seems to be the case. But once our intelligence services traced the plane that allegedly dropped the gas back to a specific air base, it opened the option that Trump took. I didn’t realize that our military knows what every aircraft in Syria is doing at all times. That’s impressive, bordering on hard-to-believe.

[MtnClimber]

But perhaps Assad was testing Trump just as he had successfully tested and humiliated Zer0. And this time he miscalculated. An alternative hypothesis.

[dp0622]

Bob Roland: General Smith reports a gas attack. He wants to know what to do.

Rufus T. Firefly: Tell him to take a teaspoonful of bicarbonate baking soda and a half a glass of water.

“Duck Soup” The Marx Brothers :)

Figured it’s been a tense subject around here so....

[Nifster]

Nicely played 😂😂😂😂

[marktwain]

I didn’t realize that our military knows what every aircraft in Syria is doing at all times. That’s impressive, bordering on hard-to-believe.

---

I like Scott Adams. He is smart and funny. But he hasn’t a clue about the abilities of military intelligence.

We know far, far, more than that. The whole space there is almost certainly being watched by multiple assets including several satellites, drones, radars, multi-spectral electronic recording and analysis, and much, much more.

[2ndDivisionVet]

We could’ve done that back when I was in and that was ages ago.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

But perhaps Assad was testing Trump just as he had successfully tested and humiliated Zer0. And this time he miscalculated. An alternative hypothesis.

If we get involved in Syria, it has to be based on more than hypothesis. If we have proof positive that Assad was behind the chemical attack (and by all accounts, he's certainly capable of it), let's hear it. Assad is as bad as Saddam Hussein was - but simply toppling Assad will dismember Syria and put the pieces in the hands of Al-Qaida and ISIS. As with Saddam, unless we are willing to spend many years and an enormous toll in lives and treasure to replace Assad with something better, we need to stay out of this.

[Falconspeed]

Brilliant essay. Agreed. President Trump boosted his negotiation strengths. “Even Trump’s critics will call it measured and rational.” I think all the worrying and handwringing is left-over griping from the last eight years of Zero.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Trump support remains strong in Ohio
http://www.newarkadvocate.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/04/09/column-trump-support-remains-strong-ohio/100020366/

[dp0622]

:) 48 and have EVERY one of their movies!

Not sure how I came to watch the first one way back...

[blueplum]

" I didn’t realize that our military knows what every aircraft in Syria is doing at all times. That’s impressive, bordering on hard-to-believe."

Dear Scott Adams, welcome to the 21st century. The US was capable of hand-tracking every flight over a theatre 40 years ago, speed and altitude calculated by pencil. You'd be surprised what toys are available now. We gave some to Turkey and Lebanon and other folks too. Conspiracy theory fail, dude.

[arthurus]

If he was “testing” he didn’t miscalculate. He will base his calculations on the results of the test. If he was the source of the gas and not the rebels, which would make more sense, then it is likely it was to see what the new President would do. He got his answer and will tailor future actions accordingly.

[arthurus]

Assad seems to be more rational than Saddam. He and his have not generated the egregious sadism stories that came from Saddam. Being murderous, especially as the boss of an Arab Moslem land is not by itself irrational or stupid. They all are or they are very temporary.

[Nifster]

They used to play on television frequently in the sixties

I saw my first one as a B following movie when I was young.

Saturday mornings gave us a chance to see an A, a B, a couple if news reels, a bunch of cartoons, and a magician.....all for a quarter. Not a bad deal

[dp0622]

A Quarter of what?! :)

Saw my first movie at, I think, 7 or 8. Star Wars.

Don’t know what it cost.

[BeauBo]

A month doesn't go by without both sides using chemical weapons in Syria. Both sides (Assad regime and the al Queda/ISIS jihadis) have access to old stockpiles of nerve agent, and folks with experience in making it.

ISIS uses so much chlorine for poison gas IEDs, that there were serious shortages for basic water purification in the major city of Mosul.

This recent incident was just particularly large scale, and in a crowded urban setting.

Khan Shaykun is not only blocking the main road to next major objective for the Assad Regime (Idlib City), but it also has some military facilities there which are particularly solid from conventional bombing, carved deep into rock - like large caves, or Cheyenne Mountain. Nerve agent would be one of the few (only) options the regime had that could be effective from the air, against that target. They had to smoke them out.

Dug deep into solid rock, facilities long used by the Syrian military, now in rebel hands, were targeted in this attack (other parts of the city may have been also):

[shanover]

Why don’t we just leave it all alone?

[drunknsage]

Old nerve agent? Only on the condition that it’s binary which is not easy to make. They could have the precursor chemicals and it’s been alleged that anti assad forces have been provided them through Turkey and Saudi. No way to keep own for certain.

Curious to see if there’s any format of investigation. This will probably end up like Ghouta with no definitive result and the media continuing to make claims with no evidence.

[agere_contra]

Scott, you haven't thought this all the way through.

There are going to be many more gas attacks now.

Because the instigators of those attacks have tested the new US Administration and found that it is (for whatever realpolitick reasons) willing to ignore the truth.

What will President Trump do after the next false flag?

Also: Syrian airspace is now closed. Any attempt to re-open it by force of arms would likely lead to a limited nuclear exchange. A lot of westerners have blindspots about this.

[BeauBo]

“This will probably end up like Ghouta with no definitive result and the media continuing to make claims with no evidence.”

Truth is the first casualty in any war.

Intel services will keep blowing smoke and fake facts - its their job. Media hacks will have to have something to say in time for their press deadlines, so they will will say almost anything.

We will probably never know for sure, but it is quite plausible that the Assad regime did do this strike.