King Canute ("Cnut the Great") https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cnut_the_Great
Posted on 01/04/2017 11:23:08 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Abstract
This paper provides novel empirical evidence of the effects of a plausibly exogenous change in relative factor prices on United States manufacturing production and trade. The shale gas revolution has led to (very) large and persistent differences in the price of natural gas between the United States and the rest of the world reflecting differences in endowment of difficult-to-trade natural gas. Guided by economic theory, empirical tests on output, factor reallocation and international trade are conducted. Results show that U.S. manufacturing exports have grown by about 10 percent on account of their energy intensity since the onset of the shale revolution. We also document that the U.S. shale revolution is operating both at the intensive and extensive margins.
1 Introduction
The United States is in the midst of an energy revolution. It all started in the 1980s with an independent company founded by the late George Mitchell. His company had been experimenting with the application of different hydraulic fracturing techniques – a well stimulation technique in which rock is fractured by a hydraulically pressurized liquid – eventually finding the right approach to economically extract the natural gas in the Barnet shale formation in Texas. Later on, the combination of hydraulic fracturing and directional, i.e. non-vertical, drilling was widely adopted by the gas industry, in turn spawning a natural gas boom in North America in the 2000s. The surge in the production of shale gas has made the United States the largest natural gas producer in the world. Anecdotal evidence from news reports indicates that the dynamics in manufacturing capacity expansions have accelerated as a result of U.S. shale employment, with non U.S.-based chemical producers having recently announced USD 72 billion worth of investment in new plants....
(Excerpt) Read more at cep.lse.ac.uk ...
Instead because of his radical agenda will go down in history as President who destroyed much in the world.
Instead, Trump is going to have this handed to him on silver platter and be the one to go down in history.
All he has to do is remove the Obama obstruction and get out of the way ti let it happen
Good find. Fracking is Making America Great Again.
Obama wasn't the first "king" to try to keep the tide from coming in. In this case it was the energy tide, and of course he failed miserably -- to the benefit of us all.
I also think that Trump may seriously look at new form of nuclear power called the molten salt reactor. If we can scale up MSR's to commercial scale, not only can we use commonly-found thorium-232 as a nuclear fuel, but use a reactor design that is essentially meltdown-proof (since the reactor is using liquid fuel to start with!) and the reactor design can be used to turn now-useless spent uranium reactor fuel rods and even plutonium from dismantled nuclear bombs as fuel--eliminating a huge nuclear waste storage problem. And the waste from such a reactor is very small in amount and only has a radioactive half-life of around 300 years, which means really cheap waste disposal in any disused salt mine (if the nuclear medicine industry doesn't grab it first!).
Pebble Bed reactors are another possibility. They don't require cooling and cannot ever have a meltdown
> Pebble Bed reactors are another possibility. They don’t require cooling and cannot ever have a meltdown
Test Pebble reactors have had a lot of problems with pebbles getting stuck. No melt downs, but problematic.
More likely Trump will push low pressure modern uranium reactors. We need to restart our plutonium production and low pressure uranium reactors are much easier to manage because they don’t require a pressurized system to control coolant levels.
Good find. Not only Trump and Palin and right-wing crazies like us here, but academic economists as well recognize the importance of cheap natural gas from the fracking revolution as a boost to US manufacturing — even as to exports. In other words, “drill, baby, drill” to “Make America Great Again.”
The rest of the world — apart from the few energy producers — will benefit as well, through cheaper imports from the U.S.
In short, Spengler claimed that the first "American Century" would be succeeded by another in which American strength and preeminence would not just be envied but would be even more greatly admired and imitated. It seems that such optimism may well be warranted -- and especially so now with a GOP President and Congress united in such goals.
T Boone Pickens advanced a plan to switch motor vehicles from gasoline to natural gas starting with major truck lines on heavily traveled intestate corridors. Bottom line cheaper fuel and cleaner air. This was 10 years ago..I hope it gets some attention.
And with the very latest innovation, reported here on FR last week, that of fracturing the shale with ultrasound rather than chemicals; the extraction of gas and oil becomes even more efficient, by orders of magnitude.
King Canute ("Cnut the Great") https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cnut_the_Great
“I also think that Trump may seriously look at new form of nuclear power called the molten salt reactor.”
I am concerned when I read, not one, but a dozen statements similar to “Trump will (Something down in the nitty-gritty.)” A president leads by setting policy and articulating a vision. (This is why Obama’s changes made with a pen and a phone will be short-lived.) I fear we are setting ourselves up for disappointment when he fails to deliver all of the miracles we are expecting. While this speculation articulates our relief that we are not heading into “1984” (the novel) it is setting our expectations very high. I think things will get better, probably quickly. But, believe me, there will be plenty of downside he had no control over. For example, Obama dumped an unbelievable amount of cash into the economy for zero effect. The reason it had no effect is those who got the cash didn’t spend it. People, or in this case, institutions, don’t spend on disposable items or invest in plants and materials if they are terrified they may need that cash at any moment just to survive. As the Trump optimism permeates the economy that money will start to splash all over the place. Inflation will run rampant and the value of the dollar will substantially decrease. All of this disaster, caused by Obama, will appear on Trump’s watch. (Similarly, it was what Reagan did to the economy that made Bill Clinton look like a magician.)
Batten down the hatches and prepare to remain cautiously optimistic for the next four, or, hopefully, eight years.
By the way, Bill Clinton lucked out as President because his Presidency came at the time when the Internet became the next frontier for investment--as a result, by the middle 1990's there was a huge economic boom due to investing in Internet technologies.
CONCLUSIONS. . . the recent removal of restrictions on crude oil exports from the U.S. would be more consequential than for natural gas in increasing domestic prices and in reducing international crude oil prices, considering the much higher degree of tradability of oil. Indeed, liquefaction and transportation costs would make exporting liquefied natural gas economical only at relatively high prices prevailing in other markets. The price differential between the U.S. compared to Asia and Europe is thus likely to persist in turn helping to lift U.S. manufacturing.In a nutshell, transport of NG is expensive and therefore NG inherently will be most useful close to the wellhead. NG is very inexpensive at the wellhead in the US, and therefore plastics and any other NG intensive production will be sited near the NG wellheads of the US.NG replaces oil and coal use near US NG wellheads, but oil - and also coal - will be shipped where NG ain't, whether in-country or (especially) overseas. But export of oil does put upward pressure on liquid-fuel prices in the US. Less so than it would without the competitive pressure of NG, but . . .
So converting a second car to CNG for short-haul-only duty might make more sense as we export more oil.
How does a manufacturer that has outsourced his production to the third expand operations in the USA? What do they spend their money on in the USA, new carpet and chairs for the HQ building?
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