Skip to comments.
Political Ref predicted popular vote Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.1. Error 0.5%. Picked 48 of 50 states
Political Ref ^
| 11/12/16
Posted on 11/12/2016 1:46:29 PM PST by TheRef
 Ref's Performance Analysis for 2016
*HELP US GET THE TRUTH OUT ABOUT THE POLLS DURING THE NEXT ELECTION. FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND LIKE US ON FACEBOOK. I use external links on this page as a method of time stamping my work. ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION: I predicted 48 of 50 states correctly. 
In the eleven states I identified as battlegrounds, my average error was 2.09%. I called five of those states with less than 1.0% error, including Florida, missing it only by 0.1%. My projection of Florida: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8. Actual Result: Trump 49.1, Clinton 47.8. To see all battleground states, click here. METHOD: I analyzed thousands of polls throughout 2016 to develop a voter model. I applied this voter model to 142 polls in 11 battleground states from the last two weeks. I also applied this voter model to the national polls. I achieved very high accuracy in both predictions. NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: I projected the national popular vote with an error of only 0.6%. You can see a summary of how I did this here, including time stamp. Actual Popular Vote: Clinton 47.7, Trump 47.4 
| 
|
MY PODCAST FROM THE MORNING BEFORE THE ELECTION. I called the election for Trump the day before the election on my podcast based on early turnout reports. This prediction proved right on 47 of 50 states. I switched New Hampshire to Hillary later in the day when doing my final projection because of several bad polls, which proved correct. My final projection called 48 of 50 states correctly. |
Here is a link to my first electoral projection on 11/4/16, archived at freerepublic.com. In this projection, I was projecting that Trump would win Michigan. I nearly gave it to Trump in the last projection, but the national polls broke for Hillary and CCES poll had it at six points, so I didn't. I also made a video of this first projection linked here. Bad audio.
|
|
| Missed States are Depicted in Purple |
|
|
|
|
My Twitter account is just getting started.
TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-34 next last
1
posted on
11/12/2016 1:46:29 PM PST
by
TheRef
To: TheRef
2
posted on
11/12/2016 1:51:02 PM PST
by
Fiddlstix
(Warning! This Is A Subliminal Tagline! Read it at your own risk!(Presented by TagLines R US))
To: TheRef
Very good. I’m always perplexed how you can figure in the 15 million illegal and fraudulent demoncrat votes in your models.
On the level.
3
posted on
11/12/2016 1:52:01 PM PST
by
Electric Graffiti
(Obama voters killed America. Treat them accordingly.)
To: TheRef
“HELP US GET THE TRUTH OUT ABOUT THE POLLS DURING THE NEXT ELECTION.”
No.
I’m not saying nothing.
I know exactly why the polls were wrong.
I was part of the reason they were wrong.
As were millions of others.
Loose lips sink ships.
4
posted on
11/12/2016 1:53:11 PM PST
by
Eddie01
(Democrats are the Liquidate America Party)
To: TheRef
Glad to see you were closer than most!! Very happy to see the popular vote ended up being only a .3 difference as well. Trump kicked Clinton’s butt!!
5
posted on
11/12/2016 1:53:16 PM PST
by
GOP Poet
To: TheRef
Wow. He even closely predicted the millions of fraudulent votes correctly. Congrats!
6
posted on
11/12/2016 1:53:16 PM PST
by
alstewartfan
(I sit here by the banks of the Rhine Dipping my feet in the cold stream of time. 1934 by Al Stewart)
To: TheRef
Nice work. It’s great that all the poobahs of polling and forecasting got so pantsed this year since they often use them for influencing opinion. They now have zero credibility.
To: TheRef
few people believed the polls this time
and next time people will think even more for themselves
To: TheRef
To: TheRef
wow! you were really close in calling it. I don’t know how you figured things out but it worked!
10
posted on
11/12/2016 2:07:25 PM PST
by
b4me
(Idolatry is rampant in thoughts and actions. Choose whom you will serve....)
To: TheRef
11
posted on
11/12/2016 2:10:27 PM PST
by
ConservativeMind
("Humane" = "Don't pen up pets or eat meat, but allow infanticides, abortion, and euthanasia.")
To: Electric Graffiti; All
"I’m always perplexed how you can figure in the 15 million illegal and fraudulent demoncrat votes in your models." At many Trump rallies, Trump STRONGLY encouraged his supporters to get out and vote because of vote-rigging. So I question the accuracy of the popular vote.
In fact, the following video demonstrating vote-rigging had been going around months before the election.
Hacking Democracy - The Hack
Voting fraud wouldn’t be a concern if the anti-contitutional republic Progressive Movement hadn’t fooled the states into unconstitutionally straying from the constitutionally enumerated procedure for electing POTUS evidenced by the 12th Amendment (12A). If the states hadn’t strayed from 12A then there would be only 500+ electoral votes to count and no popular votes.
To: MountainWalker
The biases were severe this time around.
13
posted on
11/12/2016 2:15:20 PM PST
by
TheRef
To: b4me
Gallup and Pew issues massive voter ID polls which did not match the pollster’s assumptions. Trafalgar group found good evidence for the shy trump voter.
it really wasn’t that hard. Data was there. The problem was the people at fivethirtyeight et al didn’t want to give anything to Trump!
14
posted on
11/12/2016 2:17:32 PM PST
by
TheRef
To: TheRef
Nice job. I’m jealous. I had a go (along with Freeper randita) at the 2010 House of Representatives races with KeyHouseRaces.com and so I appreciate how much work goes into predicting election outcomes.
And it is great to see a Freeper beat that arrogant Nate Silver who stuck a 11 point Hillary over Trump Poll into his final NH mix. And to top that he gave it a high rank after knocking it down from 11 to 10.
Bye bye Nate Silver Reputation.
Hello Political Ref.
Question: What was your prediction for Wisconsin and why were the polls so far off?
15
posted on
11/12/2016 2:26:26 PM PST
by
InterceptPoint
(Ted, you finally endorsed. About time.)
To: TheRef
I’m seeing some links on facebook that say trump has won the popular vote now. Looking for more info.
16
posted on
11/12/2016 2:29:18 PM PST
by
enduserindy
(Republican's have sold the path, not lost it.)
To: TheRef
The Left [including the media] created a narrative that Clinton was going to win and then tried to make it come to fruition.
Either intentionally or subjugated by their own duplicity, they ignored facts in favor of emotion.
They are so deeply blinded by their small sphere of influence that they do not understand or even consider flyover country as having any validity.
17
posted on
11/12/2016 2:36:46 PM PST
by
TomGuy
To: InterceptPoint
18
posted on
11/12/2016 3:02:24 PM PST
by
TheRef
To: TheRef
Wisconsin polls were terrible.Yes. I knew that. I looked at your list and you have pretty much the polls that show on RCP. These polls were in absolute agreement that Hillary would easily win WI, probably by 6 or 7. She loses by 1. Amazing.
Generally at least one pollster will get it right. Not this time. 100% of the polls showed Hillary winning easily.
I'm really hoping we will eventually get some insight to how all of these WI pollsters could get it so universally wrong.
And again, congratulations. You did a really great job this election cycle. Of course it helps when your side wins.
19
posted on
11/12/2016 3:17:13 PM PST
by
InterceptPoint
(Ted, you finally endorsed. About time.)
To: InterceptPoint
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-34 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson
Electoral Vote
Electoral Vote
