Posted on 10/29/2016 9:17:20 AM PDT by JerseyRepub
Another good day for the registered Republicans and relevant poor day for registered Democrats. The good guys continue to show up more than they did in 2012 and the Democrats are fewer, especially black voters.
Unaffiliated votes are the biggest surprise this time as 35% more of them early voting relative to 2016.
It's a long blog, but towards the end is a most interesting find, based on Dr. Bitzer's analysis:
"Finally, I was interested in the rise of the unaffiliated voter and if they had participated in the state's March 2016 presidential primary election in one of the two party primaries (in North Carolina, unaffiliated voters can select which party they wish to vote in during a primary election).
Out of 391K unaffiliated voters who have cast any type of absentee ballot so far, 50 percent of them cast ballots in the March 2016 primary election: of those 55 percent cast ballots in the Republican primary, while 45 percent cast in the Democratic primary."
"Registered Democrats are five percent behind their 2012 same day totals, registered Republicans are 12 percent ahead of their same day totals, and registered unaffiliated voters are beating both partisans in performance, at 39 percent ahead of their 2012 same day totals."
The last part about picking your side with 55% picking R and 45 picking D is interesting.
I know several people who picked D in order to vote against Hillary. They assumed Trump would win and wanted Clinton to lose.
These voters should be solidly in the Trump camp.
“It appears that many of these new Unaffiliated voters in NC are those voters. “
it would make sense that someone who hadn’t been registered before and who wasn’t into politics and who registered mainly to vote for Trump would pick unaffiliated.
“The good guys continue to show up more than they did in 2012 and the Democrats are fewer, especially black voters.”
That one little sentence tells the story of this whole election.
Republicans are voting FOR Trump, and only secondarily against Clinton.
Democrats are voting AGAINST Trump, and only secondarily for Clinton.
The above dynamics explain the difference in turnout between R and D voters in this election.
I had hoped NC looked better than this.
Dude, those stats are amazingly good for Trump. Dems are down 5% vs 2012, Reps are up 12% vs 2012, and Indies are up 39% vs 2012.
What would motivate a black voter to get up and vote for that old woman?
Over 19,000 have early-voted in Odessa, Tx, and that’s huge for us.Our population is a bit under 100,000, so over 10% have already gone to the polls.Including my hubby and I!
I know that we’re very Republican, so that’s good!
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