Posted on 10/26/2016 10:38:43 AM PDT by TheRef
The daily drumbeat of corporate media telling us that this race is over had an impact last week. Trump started to dip in the polls as we saw him drop behind in the IBD and LA Times/Daybreak polls. Those have been his stalwart polls, showing him leading when the others would not. But that has reversed and Trump is back on top in the LA Times/Daybreak and holding steady in the IBD/TIPP.
All along I have been writing that this is a close race. Those national polls can really only tell you if it's a blowout or a close race. The good national polls are showing that it's a pretty close race, within five points.
If a national poll is showing it at six points or more, that's just not a credible finding right now. Obama defeated McCain by seven and that was after the collapse of our economy and the housing crisis. We are not going to see that kind of margin this election.
Megyn Kelly and her ilk are convinced that the Fox News poll and the other live caller polls that are assuming a 2012 extremely high minority voter turnout are right. They are definitely wrong! It's not even worth your time considering. This race is within three or four points for sure. We know this because the state polls in the bellwether states are showing that this is a close race, and you can take that to the bank. The state polls are just better polls for a variety of reasons.
There is just no good reason to assume a high turnout like we had in 2012. We see now that Reuters/Ipsos is showing that young voters are starting to tune out the election because of its negative tone. This is a very bad sign for Clinton.
This morning a Bloomberg poll, certainly not a poll that makes favorable assumptions about his turnout prospects, shows Trump ahead in Florida.
Perhaps Remington Research Group is picking up on this trend of younger voters to tune out the election. Whatever the reason, Remington Research, a pollster that fivethirtyeight.com rates among the highest, is finding the races in the states to be very competitive.
The pollster found Trump ahead in Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina. They found Trump tied in Florida and only trailing by two in Colorado and three in Pennsylvania. If this pollster weren't rated so well on fivethirtyeight it would be easy to dismiss these as outliers. But because it is such a highly rated pollster by a website that leans left, these results represent something to consider. The samples were all around 1500 voters. They paint a picture of a race Trump can win fairly easily and it would not be a shock. By these numbers, it looks more like a 50/50 race right now. Follow my account on Twitter for daily updates on the election!
Dem Talking Litman head on FOX just now, “Let’s not kid the viewers. Trump has absolutely no path to become President.”
I see Dems saying this all over the Internet today.
Ha! If they thought that, they wouldn’t be saying it. They really need to watch out about creating a Brexit effect. That’s exactly what happened, Remain advocates were so confidant and the Brexit people ignored them while Remain people didn’t. Let them say it! hahahahaha
In Pa, it's the counties that include Philly and Pittsburg....
Look at the Pa map for Obama's election.
Democrats on Twitter are saying these polls are garbage and that it’s a conservative outlet, lol.
...unless it's by Trump.
I see three potential outcomes.
1) A narrow Hillary win. Possible. All of the polls are still pointing towards her. It would be foolish to discount them entirely, particularly the more sensible ones. Trump losing Texas? hahahahahaha...No. Trump losing Colorado? Hmmmm....maybe.
2) A narrow Trump win. Nailbiter of an election, maybe even 2000 redux. I think this is the least likely of the three scenarios, but still possible. If it's this close, Trump surely gets the edge because he has smarter lawyers and better people.
3) A Trump blowout. 350 EV, or more. This wouldn't shock me in the least. Hillary keeps the Northeast, the West Coast, and maybe a Midwestern state or two. NY turns out to be a tossup, and makes the difference between a loss and a blowout embarrassment for Hillary.
Hillary will not have a blowout, or even a 2012 (or 2004) -like victory. My $0.02. YMMV
"The state polls are just better polls for a variety of reasons."
I agree with that. But I have no idea what the "variety of reasons" actually are. The state polls just seem more consistent to me. And they certainly are more favorable to Trump than the crap we are getting from the national polls by Faux, ABC, NBC and the like.
Any ideas what those "variety of reasons" are?
The Remington poll for PA on p.4 shows Trump with 29% of the black vote. Could that be the Brexit sleeper factor lurking and being missed by the national polls?
If that’s true, Nate Silver wouldn’t rate them so highly. He’s rating them higher than every other poll but a couple.
Sure, they are polling a much smaller electorate with far fewer political dynamics to consider. Not to mention, it’s harder to fake a state poll. As we learned from the Podesta email, they call certain parts of the states to pad national polls, but it’s much harder to get away with that in a state poll.
There is a fairly large black population around Pittsburgh that may lean in that direction. I could see that happening.
Good to hear. That negates their claims.
2 million Floridians have voted – Surprise Fla. poll: Trump leads by 1; Rubio by 10 (!?) – Dems miffed that DC party abandoned Murphy — Soros funds Florida-Puerto Rican GOTV
http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/florida-playbook/2016/10/2-million-floridians-have-voted-surprise-fla-poll-trump-leads-by-1-rubio-by-10-dems-miffed-that-dc-party-abandoned-murphy-soros-funds-florida-puerto-rican-gotv-217050#ixzz4ODqNvMkT
If we had real social justice in our system - no voter fraud, no media bias - it would be Trump in a landslide.
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