Why these polls are different from the ones in 2008 and 2012

The Coach's Team ^ | 8/12/16 | Kevin "Coach" Collins

[Oldpuppymax]

Here are the differences between polls of 2016 and previous polls.

Donald Trump is not like Mitt Romney or John McCain; Trump’s candidacy is THE RESULT of Romney and McCain. The level of hatred for Hillary Clinton among Trump supporters is large enough to give pause to Democrats. They have never seen this much vitriol for one of their candidates. In neither 2008 nor 2012 was there such a massive “movement” of people who hate what is happening to their country.

There were no Email leaks showing the DNC working in collusion with CBS and NBC to manipulate the polls. There were no flat out admissions from the New York Times that they are in fact lying to support Clinton.

So why are the polls wrong?

Above all of these factors is the crash in the percentage of respondents to polls compared with the number of people contacted. Pew conducted an extensive examination of the rates of reply to pollsters over the past several years. Pew found that, just in the period of 2012 to 2014, the response rate fell 23 points from 31% to 8 percent. Moreover, at 31% response Pew found a 24% error rate! There is no reason to believe that the rate of response has grown since 2014.

In short, people know the reporting is faked and don’t want anything to do with it.

For example in a new ABC poll Clinton is winning Black voters 92/2 which means she is doing better than Obama did. To put that in prospective a new poll in North Carolina has Trump getting 32% of the likely Black vote in that state. The fact that North Carolina’s Black voter participation in the...

[T Ruth]

Thanks for your informative reply.

[T Ruth]

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I agree with almost everything you say. And I do think Trump is likely win.

But I am also concerned that a large enormous part of the electorate is ignorant and emotional, and that the dishonest media can create such a fog of lies and distortion that the voters will simply vote according to what's "cool," in the sense of the subtext created by media personalities.

Jon Stewart has more influence than any ten people talking sense. So I guess we agree on your last point: despite all the cogent points you make, Hillary might still be elected, and then the country will deserve what it gets.

[UKrepublican]

My point was for Brexit they were miles wrong at every point, even hours after the polls closed. They were used to surmise a 90% chance of remain winning.

[sagar]

After the vote is counted, it is not speculation anymore, is it. I said the odds provide the best speculation. Can you name me a better speculation methodology than the betting odds where people are actually putting their money on the line?

[UKrepublican]

Point is it was equally as unreliable before the polls closed.

As for speculation methodology - One could cite opinion polls if you see them in that light.

Not denying they are a useful thing to look at - however my point was only that they can and have been hugely wrong, so I would not be despondent if the markets went against my preferred candidate.

[sagar]

“Point is it was equally as unreliable before the polls closed.”

Can you show me evidence that betting odds are “equally as unreliable”?

“As for speculation methodology - One could cite opinion polls if you see them in that light.”

As wise people say, opinions are like aholes. Everybody’s got them. Unless they put their money on the line, their opinion means nothing.

“Not denying they are a useful thing to look at - however my point was only that they can and have been hugely wrong, so I would not be despondent if the markets went against my preferred candidate.”

That is why it is called an upset. Things that are not expected to happen, using the most rational speculation methodology like betting odds, sometimes do happen. This is also the perfect opportunity to bet on Trump and get 4 times the return in 90 days.

[UKrepublican]

I said equally unreliable as in equally unreliable as how the betting markets were after the polls closed. It was insanely in wrong, a complete reversal of what the bookies were saying.

And yes I know what an upset was - my point was and remains, they can be hugely wrong, and so I won’t lose any sleep based on what the bookies are telling people, which I can only imagine right up to election day will be that HRC will be the next President.