Trump says he can win New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and Massachusetts; let’s take a look

Coach is Right ^ | 01/10/16 | Kevin "Coach" Collins

[Oldpuppymax]

Donald Trump is saying he can win a number of states not easily won by a Republican. So, is this just a boast or something to keep Hillary Clinton and Fox News awake at night?

The big prizes among these states are Florida and New York with their 29 Electoral votes.

Trump can take New York because: A) he gets 25% of the Black vote, a fact which is not even challenged anymore, B) he is getting 45% of Hispanics, C) the conviction of Sheldon Silver, the most powerful Democrat in the state and the likely indictment of Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo means the Democrats won’t be able to help Hillary Clinton and D) the City of New York will not be enough to overcome the Trump wave from upstate and the City’s bedroom counties. Put New York’s 29 ECVs in Trump’s column.

Ohio is another state that Trump will win by building off the surprisingly good showing Republicans made among Black voters in 2014 when 28% voted Republican. In 2012 Mitt Romney lost Ohio by less than 2 points and Trump is already polling well with blue collar Democrats which will be helpful in the Buckeye State. Put Ohio’s 18 ECVs in Trump’s column.

Pennsylvania has gone Democrat in the last several presidential elections but not by more than 5 points. This would still mean a steep climb for Trump except for the fact that Democrat’s must rely on a large Black vote in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and a few other big cities. Add in a Bernie Sanders type Democrat governor, the recent declaration by Philadelphia’s mayor that his will become a “Sanctuary City” and the Email sex scandal...

[dp0622]

Are black people waking up from their 50 year slumber?

I know, I know, 25 percent isn’t a landslide.

but it’s a FOUR HUNDRED percent increase over the usual 5 percent.

pudgie got 20 percent in NJ. the ohio gov got 30 percent!!??

i’ll believe it after the votes are in, but good for them if it’s true.

[chajin]

he would have to beat the Democrats by at least five points, to counter balance the urban vote fraud.

[Nextrush]

Trump has to overcome the rigged delegate election process here in PA.

Delegate selection is separate from candidate selection and all delegate candidates in each of the 18 congressional districts are considered ‘uncommitted’.

The voters don’t know who the candidates listed for delegate support and the Republican Establishment runs their cronies like local officials and hacks as candidates.

This system has allowed the GOPe to control the PA delegation every time.

Trump or Cruz or whoever will have to spend time and money in 18 separate congressional districts to promote their slates of three candidates for delegate in each district.

[Don Corleone]

With the possible exception of the District of Corruption Trump could run the table.

[SubMareener]

So, for the most part Trump's claim to be able to win at least 96 ECVs that should be easy pickups for Clinton makes sense. Added to the 195 ECVs he will get almost automatically and Trump is off to a very good start.

With 291 ECVs, 21 over the required 270 to win, I would say Trump is off to a very good finish! :-)

[BobL]

Crappy analysis, even though the basically get to the right conclusions. They only touch on Trump’s STRONGEST area of support, which is the White Vote, or, in more ‘politically correct language’, the combination of Republicans and Reagan Democrats. Trump will do MUCH BETTER with Whites overall than any other Republican candidate this year, and much, much, better than Romney or McCain, simply because he gives Whites on the margins (and the base for that matter) SOMETHING TO VOTE FOR, with the need for that being TOTALLY INCOMPREHENSIBLE to the GOPe. Doing that well with whites (who still make up 70% of the electorate) is enough to win, even without a decent showing by minorities.

But what they miss is the rest of the Midwest, given Trump’s strength with Whites, Trump will easily take Michigan and Wisconsin, probably Minnesota, and make a decent showing even in Illinois (well enough to cause the Dems to spend money there).

So it won’t be a victory, it will be a BLOWOUT.

[LostPassword]

This analysis only covers living voters. Ds just need to step up their GOTV efforts in graveyards to offset any changes in how living people vote.

It also won't hurt to register a lot more "undocumented citizens" or whatever the Ds are currently calling people who are in our country illegally.

I wouldn't be surprised if Judge Recognizes Two Chimpanzees as Legal Persons is the the first step in and effort for Ds to add voters to their roles. We'll need a new voting machine where you can throw poop to vote straight D rather than voting straight D as a substitute for throwing poop driectly at the rest of the country.

[deport]

Here’s a website that you can use to correct all those screwed up ‘ and “ while FR is
trying to fix the problem. Just copy and paste your article into the space, hit convert
and copy the converted info and paste in your thread.

http://dan.hersam.com/tools/smart-quotes.html

[arthurus]

More than that to counter also the new citizens and the Soros vote count. The vote fraud will be systemized and widespread this time with the feds watching the polls in the states without voter ID laws to make sure that no poll worker asks any ID type question of any voter or even if he has voted already.

[euram]

They only touch on Trump’s STRONGEST area of support, which is the White Vote...

I don’t know how many times I’ve heard Bill O’Reilly and others say that any republican candidate must pander more to get the Hispanic vote, because it’s impossible to get a bigger share of the white vote. Both McCain and Romney each got about 60 percent of the white vote, and the dems got 40 percent of the white vote. I don’t see why it would be IMPOSSIBLE for a republican to get another 5 or 10 percent of the white vote.

It’s just that the gop establishment doesn’t want any candidate who is willing to tailor a campaign that would deliberately seek more white voters.

[PGalt]

HOORAY Trump

[RIghtwardHo]

Ya know, I give up.

We talk about such silly s*** that we can NOT focus on facts and issues.

Quinnipeac has a poll taken the same time that gives Trump 3% of the black vote. An AP poll gives him 11% of Hispanics. Are those polls necessarily correct? Not necessarily. But to say there is no debate in potentially phantom support is ludicrous. This is no different than going into a trial thinking “I got this because I’ve got some law enforcement types on the jury.”

Until we start being serious, we will never take back anything. And our time is so very short.

I need a break. This is immensely frustrating.

[ironman]

In addition Trump should be able to flip Virginia back to red (Obama won the last two times).

[moehoward]

The trend line (Reuters) for Trump is looking very good. Head to head against Cruz/Rubio he’s breaking sharply up, and head to head against Hillary he should over take her well out the margin of error in the next 20-30 days.

[Demiurge2]

Shhh... white folks exist solely to apologize to every other demographic. Didn’t you get the memo?

[Catsrus]

I don’t know about other states mentioned, but, I firmly believe Trump will carry Ohio judging from the fact that live in Ohio and all the talk is Trump.

[MarMema]

I hope he will take Michigan. I don’t want to be embarrassed to live here.

[bog trotter]

Vote fraud is a concern of mine, also.
I can’t help but wonder what Donald has in his bag of tricks to deal with it.