Posted on 12/17/2015 7:49:50 PM PST by parksstp
Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.â€
Who can and will defeat Trump? The answer is obvious, but also not obvious because the question seems to beg the name of another candidate. The “who†that will defeat Trump is not another candidate but is most likely to be the Republican voters who actually turn out in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the other contests.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
Article explains why all the variance in the polls not just for Trump, but for other candidates. Assuming near 100% turnout in a Caucus/Primary is folly and that appears to be where the discrapancy is coming from.
I will be glad when the actual voting starts when these wishful thinking articles will end. Iowa is problematic because of the nature of a caucus. However a primary poll (NH SC) in the last week before the primary, is likely to be close to the final result.
No candidate in the primaries was getting crowds at their rallies like Trump is getting. Thats a big difference maker when comparing polls to yesteryear’s trends— it would seem.
He’s CRUSHING the competition. That means he will win. When has polling this high above others for as long resulted in anything else? I love this false notion that “once voters come to their senses”. They have, it’s Trump they want.
I love these articles. So if Trump gets 30%, they say 70% won’t vote for him and he can’t win. Yet every other candidate has anywhere from 80-99% of Republicans not voting for them, but the winner will emerge from there. OK, that makes sense.
None of the other GOP candidates comes anywhere close to Trump’s level of support.
Its not even a horse race any more.
Larry Sabato is smoking crack.
That means you accept that Trump will lost to Hilary Clinton by 10% come November 2016 yes? Cause that’s how much Trump is losing to Hilary Clinton by according to NBC’s latest polls.
Words to live by, Cratchit.
If you choose which candidate to support based on general election polls a year out and before the damn primary is even over, you should really leave this politics stuff to the adults.
Sure he’s losing by 10%.
Wait, the polls all said the same thing about Matt Bevin. They showed him behind by double digits.
GOP establishment and MSM wrote him off. He won by a landslide.
He’s persuasive about cauci but not primaries IMO. Especially open ones.
“Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.””
Who can and will defeat Trump? The answer is obvious, but also not obvious because the question seems to beg the name of another candidate”
Didn’t read past that ridiculous gobbledygook.
Just goes to show that the cost to publish on the internet is about .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 per page. AND you get what you pay for!
The DMR showed Trump had 38% negative opinion.
The question of best temperament showed Cruz leading with 34% and Trump at 11%. Probably why the trump attacked Cruz’s temperament last Sunday.
I am guessing that supports the author’s theory. I found it reassuring.
They’ve told us Trump has a ceiling.
Every time, he’s made fools out of them.
They’re fit to be tied because he’s getting stronger and they can’t stand it.
Along comes Sabato with his crystal ball to save the day for them.
I think there is still a good chance Trump will go 3rd party if he doesn’t get the nomination, where he can pull dems and indies in the general. It costs him no more because he’s not taking GOP money anyway.
You are right to call it stupid when anyone says that when Trump is 30% that means 70% wont vote for him. It is equally studid to say that 30% means that Trump has locked this up.
He has done no such thing.
Tell to Mittens.
He had 24% in December 2011 and no one else could touch him.
Trump has been leading since the summer and he’s still the front-runner.
Yebito can’t even get his campaign staff! excited for him.
His post-debate party looked like a wake.
Yeah he’ll be President as soon as I’m loaded with money.
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