Posted on 12/15/2015 4:38:09 PM PST by RaceBannon
Thank you for a reasoned response.
Even at $50 Billion, it would be worth it. We really have no other choice.
I don’t disagree. However, my opinion, and the opinion of many experts is that it will take much more than $5B.
I agree.
I’ve been at many plants with no spares. Last I heard the old Westinghouse transformer plant in Muncie was closed. AFAIK the only source for the large transformers is in Canada. Given the lead time, if the plant was operational, how long would it take to build possibly hundreds of transformers?
The other issue is logistics. No railroads running probably means no transport available even if they had a Schnabel car near by. Of course getting the materials to build those transformers would be a big issue too.
The transformer issue isn’t as bad as it used to be. Not sure if that applies to GSUs specifically.
We don’t know what will and will not be running. Part of the effort to solve the bigger complicated issues you bring up is to identify the systemic vulnerabilities. This is an effort that is just starting.
The feds went through and prepared a report maybe five years ago. I’m not sure how complete that is. I’m reminded of Katrina and how long that took to organize things when it wasn’t the entire country. Obviously whatever we’re faced with depends on the magnitude of the disaster.
If it’s countrywide/worldwide, we may be looking at trying to bootstrap ourselves back from the eighteenth century. It’s a complex problem that involves a multitude of factors one of which will be the availability of Schnabel cars and fuel to enable the railroads to operate and deliver GSUs. As mentioned how will the materials be sourced?
The deindustrialization of the country will be a factor that greatly magnifies the effect of the disaster. The more you look at the issues the more complex it gets. Once you identify a critical item it exposes a support network that in itself may point to items that have either long lead items or items not available at all.
JIT and other efficiencies of manufacturer and distribution will kill society as we know it once the grid goes down. Even unaffected power plants require fuel. Whether that is natural gas, coal or fuel rods for refueling at nuclear power plants, it exposes another vulnerability.
Any plan should identify power plants close to fuel sources and develop a plan to create pockets of capability that can be leveraged to expand the area. That means someone investing in components like GSUs that can be preordered and prepositioned to make them quickly available.
Where’s that money going to come from? The spending needed now won’t be looked upon kindly by Wall Street. When the amount is added up, the investment to provide basic triage for the country is going to be extensive. It would be interesting to look at the replacement value of this country’s infrastructure. It has to be guadrillions of dollars at least.
When you consider that, it would be cheaper to get mankind off the planet and self sufficient. When NASA has been tasked with Muslim outreach, it doesn’t bode well for making tough, rational decisions. One of which may be deliberately abandoning major cities and the amount of casualties that may entail given the amount of influence they can exert.
Can you imagine telling the people of New York that in the case of a disaster, they’re expendable?
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