New Poll has Gov. Scott Walker Opening Up Large Lead in 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus Race – 3/24/15

Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | March 26, 2015

[napscoordinator]

That is not what I said. I don’t care if he says he will turn a blind eye as long as he doesn’t pass any legislation that says otherwise. Most say things and then doesn’t do them. This is opposite where he says something we may not agree with but doesn’t do said action. I like that quite frankly.

[parksstp]

In June 2012 in IA it was

Bachmann 21% (won straw poll)
Romney 20%
RuPaul 18%

Shortly after the Straw Poll and after Rick Perry’s Entry, but before Perry had the “3 points” debate meltdown

Perry 19%
Romney 18%
RuPaul 18%

After Perry’s fall to the wayside and Herman Cain’s 9-9-9
but before Romney’s insiders and pals in NJ did him in with the made up scandals

Cain 20%
Romney 20%
RuPaul 19%

After Newt comes out of nowhere and surges right before Christmas but before he dropped back down again after comments during the week before the Caucus

Romney 23%
Newt 21%
RuPaul 18%

Caucus day. Rick Santorum griped about being the only one not to get a chance to surge. The surge happened a little unexpectedly on Election day and gave him a 25 vote win.

Santorum 25%
Romney 25%
RuPaul 20%

So Polls at this stage are meaningless.

The only generalization we can make is that IA has roughly 25% of RINO voters, about 20-30% Social Issues only conservatives, 15-20% libertarians that may or may not actually be as insane as RuPaul and 20-25% up for grabs that gets distributed to the other candidates.

This means a Republican that wins IA in a crowded field with 40% or more of the vote looks strong.

[jjotto]

The only generalization we can make is that IA has roughly 25% of RINO voters, about 20-30% Social Issues only conservatives, 15-20% libertarians that may or may not actually be as insane as RuPaul and 20-25% up for grabs that gets distributed to the other candidates.

Describes Iowa caucuses perfectly. Nothing is determined by the caucus straw vote. Delegates selected to the county and district can't be committed to a candidate. That's why Iowa can go so early.

[EinNYC]

No way would I support Walker. Absolutely no way. I like Cruz. He is not afraid to tell it like it is. He is a quality candidate who does not have to rely on family names or personal wealth.