Why Not Do It Sooner And End The 'thon?
Posted on 02/27/2015 8:49:51 AM PST by alexmark1917
Most US economic data missed expectations in February.
And that investors are sending stocks to all-time highs is making Societe Generale's Albert Edwards crazy.
In a note Thursday, Edwards wrote:
"With equity markets galore hitting record highs clearly I must be missing something big! We are at that stage in the cycle where I begin to doubt my own sanity. I’ve been here before though and know full well how this story ends and it doesn’t involve me being detained in a mental health establishment (usually)."
From Janet Yellen's testimony on Capitol Hill earlier this week, Edwards points out that the Federal Reserve is being patient and data-dependent so that it doesn't "risk the economic recovery."
"Investors are transfixed instead by the Fed and when it will tighten rates and can't see the wood for the trees. The Fed's focus on payrolls, a lagging indicator, is most perplexing but not unusual at this stage in the cycle. The reality is that the vast bulk of economic, as well as earnings, data (even outside the energy sector), has been simply dreadful."
Here's a chart he included that illustrates the disconnect between the economic data and the stock market.
Screen Shot 2015 02 26 at 8.29.24 AMSociete Generale
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-is-doubting-his-own-sanity-2015-2#ixzz3StDGY0UV
The US recovery story is a fraud: SocGen bear
Societe Generale's notoriously bearish strategist, Albert Edwards, has poured scorn on the belief that the U.S. economy is recovering and predicts "violent" reactions in asset markets during the second half of 2015.
"The downturn in U.S. profits is accelerating and it is not just an energy or U.S. dollar phenomenon – a broad swathe of U.S. economic data has disappointed in February," he said in a research note published Thursday.
U.S. indexes have continued to hit all-time highs this year and theNasdaq is also looking to break through a level last seen at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000.
However, Edwards said that, rather than concentrating on these corporate earnings or dismal economic data points, market participants were too focused on the "pillow talk" about decent payroll data from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102458578
Headlines:
EU gives France until 2017 to cut deficit; Italy, Belgium in clear Downgrade of Brazil Oil Giant Stirs Wider Concern S Korea's Household Debt Rises 2.8% to KRW1,089 Trillion in 4Q Germany’s Negative-Yield Universe Extends as ECB Prepares to Buy Draghi Confident Stimulus Will Boost Eurozone Rhodes: Pension plans too costly for cities Central Bank in Japan Has No Ceiling for Asset Purchases, Chief Says Brazil bank provisions hit 20-month high as economy sours Baltimore sewers: time bombs buried under the streets A Perfect Storm Is Heading Toward Higher Education Putin: Gas supplies to Europe could suffer in 3-4 days if Kiev doesn't pay South Africa’s $38 Billion Tab That Won’t Come Cheap Greeks withdrew nearly €13 billion as tension grew California has entered fourth year of drought, water experts say Top official delivers bleak forecast for Lake Mead Global equities hit new record as cheap money reigns Puerto Rico Agencies Want Bankruptcy Option to Boost Economy Cracks Starting to Appear in Public Pensions’ Armor Russia Banks May See Over 20% of Loans Go Bad This Year
Anyone living in the real world has known that there has been no ‘recovery’.
All I know is that I see very little sign of anything that I would characterize as a “recovery”. I would hate to be a young person trying to get started today. I see college graduates taking the type of job that a tenth grade dropout would have turned down and a high school graduate would have sneered at when I was young. I also see college graduates who could not possibly pass my eighth grade final in many subjects.
They LIED to us? Noooooooooooooooo,,,, Just because inflation, the consumer price index, and unemployment are all counted differently than the way they were in the early 80s, and just because every single time they release numbers, they are revised in an unfavorable direction a few months later,,,, that doesn’t mean they’d lie to us!
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Yes, it is a fraud.
There are 9.6 million more permanently unemployed now than there were when the Dems took over congress in 2007.
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LOL, your tag line is great.
there has been no ‘recovery’”
That’s supposed to be Classified and Secret, how did you get your hands on it”
Ain’t that the truth! The economy is bad and worse. My company struggles and we see the same across the industry. Offering discounts to unemployed, we see constant stream of otherwise employable people that are left out of this so-called recovery. The unemployment stats are faked, which will be a problem for whoever follows Obama as they will be ‘causing’ unemployment to fix the numbers to accurately show unemployment as it really is.
I blame it on the interest attached to our FRNs.
Well DUH...
How could they possibly miss GDP by HALF, revising 4th quarter from 5% down to 2.2%? That’s a MASSIVE miss!
That HAS to tell anyone that the metrics they use are lies and BS. They go for the initial pump with the first headline, and everyone ignores the downward revision, which comes later....
It was left sitting in a bar.
They have a hard time adding, let alone adding to over $4 trillion.
They did not miss by half. GDP was revised from 2.6 to 2.2. The 5.0 was for 3Q14.
Was going by a headline I saw on ZH, but they can be a bit slanted with such things.
There was never any recession in DC.
That’s what the media views.
Well, here’s the deal: they generally classify the smallest positive change in figures as a “recovery”. However, when you consider actual proportions, it is nowhere near a significant recovery.
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