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blockquote>Sanctions-hit Iran, OPEC's fourth largest producer, said on Wednesday that it considers the "logical" price of crude to be around $100-$120 a barrel. Analysts said the $100 price for Brent is considered ideal by Saudi Arabia...The Saudis will maintain a price that will allow them to avoid budget deficits -- the gov't is not the only employer, but the patronage flows down through those 2000 corrupt princes, and ultimately everything is owned and run by an oligarchy. The only thing that may make that change is the status of the Iranian-Saudi relationship -- if an out and out war (not just the proxy war which has gone on over 30 years) the Saudis will crater the price of oil by pushing up production, to break Iranian finances; and if the Saudis and Iranians reach rapprochement (for example, if the Iranian regime is overthrown) the price will rise above $100/bbl.

Reprise:
OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
GoldMoney Alert
February 18, 2004


...The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.

4 posted on 01/27/2015 10:30:42 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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Whoops. Reprise:
OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
GoldMoney Alert
February 18, 2004


...The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.
US Imports of Crude oil
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Year
Quantity (thousands of barrels)
Value (thousands of US dollars)
Unit price (US dollars)
Average daily US$ per € exchange rate
Unit price (euros)

2001

3,471,066
74,292,894
21.40
0.8952
23.91
2002
3,418,021
77,283,329
22.61
0.9454
23.92
2003
3,673,596
99,094,675
26.97
1.1321
23.82
We can see from column (4) in the above table that in 2001, each barrel of imported crude oil cost $21.40 on average for that year. But by 2003 the average price of a barrel of crude oil had risen 26.0% to $26.97 per barrel. However, the important point is shown in column (6). Note that the price of crude oil in terms of euros is essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period.

As the dollar has fallen, the dollar price of crude oil has risen. But the euro price of crude oil remains essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period. It does not seem logical that this result is pure coincidence. It is more likely the result of purposeful design, namely, that OPEC is mindful of the dollar's decline and increases the dollar price of its crude oil by an amount that offsets the loss in purchasing power OPEC's members would otherwise incur. In short, OPEC is protecting its purchasing power as the dollar declines.

5 posted on 01/27/2015 10:33:44 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Very clever tagline.
Regarding Tinfoil hat post - in your opinion is concern about EU / Central bank collapse unwarranted?
Wonder if there are any ideal short hedge funds to help ride out turmoil?
Thx


11 posted on 01/27/2015 11:05:19 AM PST by MarchonDC09122009 (When is our next march on DC? When have we had enough?)
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