The strategic end of securing Kurdistan by recognizing its sovereignty as a nation is feasible, suitable, but not acceptable.
1) We just spent 10 years, thousands of lives, and God-knows-how-many billions of dollars to secure Iraq in its current state. While those of us who were there know for a fact that Kurdistan is, in fact, a country, the national effort was to preserve Iraq as it’s existed on the map for decades since the Brits artificially created its current borders. The lack of acceptability domestically will come from the out-of-power party criticizing the in-power party for completely throwing away what we fought so long to sustain.
2) The lack of acceptability internationally stems from our “allies” in the Middle East, most notably Turkey. I’m not sure of Saudi Arabia’s stand on the matter, but since Arabs are pretty racist, I doubt they’d like Arab nations split apart for non-Arabs. Turkey has been at war in the south with PUK in the north part of Kurdistan for a long time, and Kurdistan would likely claim that section of Turkey as part of their territory. The Kurds would also likely use the weapons we supply them with against our own NATO allies.
3) While acceptability from a non-ally is a very low priority consideration, we have to be aware of the possible retaliation from Iran against the Kurds if Iran loses a chunk of its sovereign territory to Kurdistan.
4) There’s also the possibility of a Kurdish civil war between the PUK and the PRK. This isn’t likely to occur while ISIS is keeping everyone busy on the south end, but eventually one party will demand control over the other.
While I’m not saying recognizing Kurdistan as a sovereign state is the wrong thing to do, there are significant strategic implications of such a decision that can’t be ignored.
I’d be for it, and make it a bastion of pro-Americanism in a bad neighborhood. Support them to the hilt, starting with an air bridge of supplies, advisers, and FACs. They have earned nationhood, IMHO, and they are 100X more reliable than Iraqis.
My guess is Baghdad will fall before the end of the year. You can’t defend any city with Sunni troops, not when half of them will defect to ISIS at the first chance, and the rest will run away. At “best” Baghdad will be another bloodbath, with a war between the Sunnis and Shias. At worst, the Sunnis will drive out or mass-murder the non-Sunnis, and Abu-Bakr al-BAGHDADI will install himself as Caliph, with Baghdad the capital of the Caliphate.
If this happens, Katie bar the door. We may see a shockingly rapid advance of the Caliphate, including in Jordan, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, etc.